Most Likely Destination of Jewish Refugees and Fate of Judaism After Holocaust with No Israel?

Kind of a reboot/continuation (or arguably a retooling) of this thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/where-do-the-jewish-people-go-if-israel-ceases-to-exist-early-on.510256/ I thoroughly condemn ethnic cleansing and genocide so this does not try to defend or glorify any atrocities committed.

As someone who has Jewish family members, I've been exploring this for a while but haven't been able to develop anything solid with it. As one may realize, the Zionist movement sought to create a Jewish state in Palestine, with plans developing in earnest in the 1890s and large-scale Jewish settlement in the region beginning once the Ottoman Empire collapsed after World War I. This sowed the seeds for the Arab-Israeli conflict that would define the area for decades to come. However, I won't go deep into the conflict because I don't want to get into current politics.

Anyway, what if either of these scenarios occurred?
1) The Balfour Declaration of 1917 is never issued or never mentions Palestine as a homeland for the Jews.
2) Israel loses the War of 1948 and most Jews in Palestine are forced to flee.

I personally think that the Jews of Palestine and Central and Eastern Europe are not going to be accepted into many countries in significant numbers for a while due to still-pervasive anti-semitism and not wanting to be flooded with refugees (including the USA despite having 5 million Jews itself at the time) and thus most will be stuck in refugee camps in Italy, Germany, and Austria for years or even decades, possibly (and quite tragically) developing into a European underclass. It's possible that by 1980, the Jews of the Soviet Union and the Middle East (assuming the Cold War runs more or less like OTL) join them as well. Perhaps some go to France and Britain since they have significant Jewish populations too and aren't too far away as most were poor and couldn't afford to travel far. However, I'm not completely sure if this is true and I could be wrong so please correct me if you think they would end up elsewhere. That being said, I'm not sure what would happen to Judaism itself. Would it become more insular? Would it become more focused on full assimilation? Does it struggle to survive and the majority convert to other religions? Please let me know what you guys think.
 
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For starters, Judaism would definitely not cease to exist without Israel. We existed for two thousand years without it, and we will long after it ceases to exist. What won't exist is Religious Zionism, which really became widespread s a result of both the traumas of the Holocaust and Israel's successes. Definitely need more time to think of the long-term religious trends. As for where they'd go, I predict that it would depend on who/where you are. I think the apartheid regimes would take many Jewish refugees as decolonization marched on, albeit begrudgingly at first. I think many Sephardic Jews would also go to France and Italy as they did IOTL, but on an even larger scale.
 
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American states like Alaska could provide virgin territory
The problem with that is that IOTL the US was notorious for denying European Jews entry into the USA during WW2 and didn’t really change its tune until 1950 in significant part due to Israel’s successful creation and most Jewish refugees choosing Israel. Also, the POD in that book is 1941, which doesn’t apply to a POD where the state of Israel is stillborn due to losing the 1948 War and I think it would be too late to create anything like it then.
 
For starters, Judaism would definitely not cease to exist without Israel. We existed for two thousand years without it, and we will long after it ceases to exist. What won't exist is Religious Zionism, which really became widespread s a result of both the traumas of the Holocaust and Israel's successes. Definitely need more time to think of the long-term religious trends. As for where they'd go, I predict that it would depend on who/where you are. I think the apartheid regimes would take many Jewish refugees as decolonization marched on, albeit begrudgingly at first. I think many Sephardic Jews would also go to France and Italy as they did IOTL, but on an even larger scale.
I think Judaism would hopefully still exist but I think something would change about it. The question is how do you think it would change? Regarding South Africa, Rhodesia, and Australia, I think South Africa was the only one of the three with a substantial Jewish population at the time, and I also think that among what was considered white, Jews were near the bottom of desirability IIRC. With the Sephardic Jews, would France and Italy willingly take in that many and avoid a massive degree of backlash?
 
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Manila? Quezon took an open door policy to refugees. Less destruction during ww2 could help
While a less destructive WW2 would be nice, that’s not really the kind of POD I’m looking at. Also, the Philippines only had 1,000 Jews as of 1948 so I’m not sure it would be a first choice even if if it were more accepting than other countries.
 
While a less destructive WW2 would be nice, that’s not really the kind of POD I’m looking at. Also, the Philippines only had 1,000 Jews as of 1948 so I’m not sure it would be a first choice even if if it were more accepting than other countries.
I mean they basically even accepted Chinese refugees after like destruction of war... Russian refugees also... They're mainly open as long as people would want to come
 
I know that many people would say the US but realistically, I’m not sure. Even with 5 million Jews in its borders at the time, the US let in relatively few Jews in once the 1924 quotas were established until the 1950s due to anti-semitism and Nativism, with the former arguably at its height after the war and not before. Assuming both still hold true ITTL, and Israel is not an option, there probably wouldn’t be too many coming into America without facing a risk of increased backlash.
 
I mean they basically even accepted Chinese refugees after like destruction of war... Russian refugees also... They're mainly open as long as people would want to come
I looked and while there aren’t many Russians in the Philippines (under 1,000 of them) most Chinese refugees came into the Philippines during the 1980s and 1990s. By then the majority of the Jews might be settled elsewhere and unlike China in the 1980s, the Philippines would take much longer to get to from Palestine and Europe in 1948. The Philippines was an option for many Chinese refugees because of its proximity to China, which the Jews here would not have. More realistically they would try to go to places with more Jews at the time than a country at the Philippines. While it won’t be zero, I can’t see that many Jews settling in the Philippines. But I still appreciate your input.
 
I think Judaism would hopefully still exist but I think something would change about it. The question is how do you think it would change? Regarding South Africa, Rhodesia, and Australia, I think South Africa was the only one of the three with a substantial Jewish population at the time, and I also think that among what was considered white, Jews were near the bottom of desirability IIRC. With the Sephardic Jews, would France and Italy willingly take in that many and avoid a massive degree of backlash?
While the Jewish population in Australia has never exceeded 1 percent, Australia was relatively friendly to Jews (unless you were a Mizrahi Jew). anti-Semitism was quite rare in the country. It rose a bit following World War 2, however. Without Israel, I think the amount of Jews trying to get into the country would be significantly higher. The reaction of the Government and White Australians would be very interesting to see play out.
 
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- US, postwar US after Holocaust would have different politics concerning Jews
- Canada, Australia, South Africa
- South America
 
Could the Dominican Republic be a destination? In OTL, the Trujillo regime expressed a desire to let Jewish refugees settle. Most likely to cover up his massacre of 25000 Haitians and to whiten up the country. If there is no Israel, then Trujillo may let more settle there, partially to whiten up his nation and also to boost the number of people who see him in a positive light. I can imagine that any refugees who can make it there will be loyal to the regime that gave them sanctuary.
 
The US could be an option if the Israel state gets forcibly expelled by the Arabs - even if the US help re-estabilish it, because it's a UN resolution and such, there would be more sympathy and reason for Jewish people to come to the US and less attraction to the Palestine area itself.
Otherwise, it highly depends on why and how Zionist efforts unfold.
 
Could the Dominican Republic be a destination? In OTL, the Trujillo regime expressed a desire to let Jewish refugees settle. Most likely to cover up his massacre of 25000 Haitians and to whiten up the country. If there is no Israel, then Trujillo may let more settle there, partially to whiten up his nation and also to boost the number of people who see him in a positive light. I can imagine that any refugees who can make it there will be loyal to the regime that gave them sanctuary.

Some Jews did end up in the DR. As far as I know this policy was never rescinded. As to the last point, I don't think that's necessarily true. As far as I know I never heard about any Jewish loyalty to Trujillo, and I've met some of the original Dominican Jews. Trujillo's rampant abuses of power and despotism would probably not endear him to the Jews, at all.

The DR at this time has a small population and probably can't take a million Jews, but as Trujillo's aim is to whiten up the population, he probably wants a good chunk to make a difference. Further, a lot of these Jews are probably professionals of some kind, and so even if it's only 100,000 or 300,000 Jews, this would have a massive effect on the country and its economy. Many, as they did historically, would probably leave for America or the Commonwealth, but you could still end up with the DR having half a million Jews by present day if we really make it clear that the DR is basically one of the only options.

If we're saying things run well, maybe we get lucky and butterfly away some of the bad developments of the 1960s and US intervention. With a cadre of educated Jews to support the resistance against Trujillo, the Army doesn't feel strong enough to try and overthrow the new government. If the DR can avoid Balaguer and basically skip to a 1960s version of its current administration it could really become quite prosperous. Forget richest country in the Caribbean, maybe one comparable to other south American heavy weights like Chile in terms of GDP per Capita.

Of course in typical Dominican fashion there would be massive wealth inequality, but it is what it is. With even just 100,000 Jews most of whom will be educated, that could be a massive boon to industry and culture. In terms of tourism, maybe the DR overtakes Florida as the destination de jure of geriatric Jews? A borshch belt along the equator?
 
While the Jewish population in Australia has never exceeded 1 percent, Australia was relatively friendly to Jews (unless you were a Mizrahi Jew). anti-Semitism was quite rare in the country. It rose a bit following World War 2, however. Without Israel, I think the amount of Jews trying to get into the country would be significantly higher. The reaction of the Government and White Australians would be very interesting to see play out.
Australia could be interesting but I am reminded of the Kimberly Plan and how it was overwhelmingly rejected. Granted, the Jewish population in Australia tripled between 1938 and 1961 but that was mostly due to organizations set up by sponsors and communities. Mizrahi Jews from the Middle East were generally not permitted to enter until 1956 following the Suez Crisis due to the White Australia policy. If it still happens IOTL then it would be interesting to watch it play out. Speaking of the White Australia policy, weren’t Ashkenazi Jews typically at the bottom of the pecking order of what was considered white? I could be wrong though.
 
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Could the Dominican Republic be a destination? In OTL, the Trujillo regime expressed a desire to let Jewish refugees settle. Most likely to cover up his massacre of 25000 Haitians and to whiten up the country. If there is no Israel, then Trujillo may let more settle there, partially to whiten up his nation and also to boost the number of people who see him in a positive light. I can imagine that any refugees who can make it there will be loyal to the regime that gave them sanctuary.
That might be interesting. I can see Trujillo advertising allowing up to 35,000-40,000 Jews into the country to make up for the numbers killed in the Parsley Massacre and, like you said, to whiten the country. The Dominican Republic was the only country at the Evian Conference to pledge accepting significant numbers of Jewish refugees so perhaps this could be a continuation of that. The question is would those Jews accept that invitation?
 
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That might be interesting. I can see Trujillo advertising allowing up to 35,000 Jews into the country to make up for the numbers killed in the Parsley Massacre and, like you said, to whiten the country. The Dominican Republic was the only country at the Evian Conference to pledge accepting significant numbers of Jewish refugees so perhaps this could be a continuation of that. The question is would those Jews accept that invitation?

Why wouldn't they?
 
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