I've seen it said on here and SHWI that the 1880s and 1890s were a period of vulnerability for the Ottoman empire, so let's run with it. The empire falls apart in the early 1880s to a mix of external pressure plus internal pressure.
What do the borders look like afterwards? The first thing I can think of is they'd likely keep the bit of Thrace turkey has OTL for the simple reason that they didn't lose it even with the disaster of WWI/attempts to impose the treaty of sevres. So, one of the post-ottoman states would be some sort of monarchial turkey with similar borders to OTL. What else comes out of the imperial wreckage? Also, what gets colonized by european powers? One sort of out there idea is the British taking advantage of the fact that they have troops near Suez to grab the holy land*, start inviting jewish immigrants in from Russia out of a sense humanitarianism and strategic reasons -- wanting to have another loyal colony near by to ensure even more security for suez.
Lebanon would likely end up a french protectorate too imo.
* In post-1900 in the monarchial Israel thread I briefly mused on the possibility of an *Israel with a more reactionary setup potentially coming up as an outcome if you get earlier british involvement in the holy land.Perhaps with the right timing this POD steers the large jewish immigration of 1890-1924 to british *Israel/the republic of israel instead of the US as a butterfly. NYC would still get the polish immigration so still get the kielbalsa and reuben sandwiches in NYC delis but hollywood would look unrecognizable.
What do the borders look like afterwards? The first thing I can think of is they'd likely keep the bit of Thrace turkey has OTL for the simple reason that they didn't lose it even with the disaster of WWI/attempts to impose the treaty of sevres. So, one of the post-ottoman states would be some sort of monarchial turkey with similar borders to OTL. What else comes out of the imperial wreckage? Also, what gets colonized by european powers? One sort of out there idea is the British taking advantage of the fact that they have troops near Suez to grab the holy land*, start inviting jewish immigrants in from Russia out of a sense humanitarianism and strategic reasons -- wanting to have another loyal colony near by to ensure even more security for suez.
Lebanon would likely end up a french protectorate too imo.
* In post-1900 in the monarchial Israel thread I briefly mused on the possibility of an *Israel with a more reactionary setup potentially coming up as an outcome if you get earlier british involvement in the holy land.Perhaps with the right timing this POD steers the large jewish immigration of 1890-1924 to british *Israel/the republic of israel instead of the US as a butterfly. NYC would still get the polish immigration so still get the kielbalsa and reuben sandwiches in NYC delis but hollywood would look unrecognizable.