Most likely alternate major world religions?

According to Wikipedia, the only religions with over a hundred million followers globally are Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and various folk religions (this is, in my understanding, an umbrella term that includes many different faiths), while borderline examples include Taoism, Shinto, and Falun Gong.

So, with a POD no earlier than, say, Constantine's issuing of the Edict of Milan in 313, what other religious traditions had the best chance of garnering a hundred million believers by 2018?

Here are a few of my thoughts, which by no means constitute an exhaustive list...

Judaism: I've read that lessening the level of persecution that the Jewish people suffered over the centuries would lead to a much higher Jewish population today, but there are other ways to augment these numbers as well. Several countries in the Classical and medieval eras either converted to Judaism, or had the potential to - the Khazars are perhaps the biggest example, but there was serious potential for this in several places in the Horn of Africa and the Arabian peninsula as well, and this isn't even mentioning longshot options such as Vladimir the Great toying with the idea and converting the Kievan Rus to Judaism rather than Christianity.

Zoroastrianism: Would this be as simple as preventing the Islamic conquest of Persia, perhaps coupled with strong Persian influence over the centuries in Central Asia, South Asia and the Indian Ocean?

Arian Christianity: Technically a form of Christianity, but one considered heretical by Chalcedonian Christians, so I'm throwing this in for consideration. It was very popular among many of the Germanic tribes that invaded the Roman Empire (Goths, Vandals, etc), but they didn't survive as a major force for more than a few centuries after the fall of the WRE. Maybe in a world where Justinian hadn't tried to reconquer the WRE, thus destroying the Arian Vandal and Ostrogothic Kingdoms and isolating the Arian Visigothic Kingdom, the rulers of those areas could've slowly converted much of the native population to Arianism, in the same way that Muslim rulers of the Middle East and North Africa only converted the Christian majority of those areas to Islam over the course of centuries?

Reformed European Paganism: I've seen this suggested as an option in other threads, both in the context of Germanic/Norse paganism and Slavic paganism. Though I'm skeptical about the viability of this, the gist of these scenarios involves a major religious leader creating more organized doctrines and heirarchies for these pagan peoples, thus allowing them to better resist Christian missionary efforts. The problem, at least with Norse paganism, is that even if this is technically possible, the Scandinavian countries have a small population that makes it difficult for this to ever achieve the status of major world religion, even if you spot them a pagan equivalent of Cnut's Empire of the Norse that converts Britain and perhaps some other peripheral areas of Europe, though making some successor state a major colonial empire globally could solve this issue.

Tengriism: Religion of many Central Asian peoples, including the ancestors of the Hungarians and Bulgarians. Like European paganism, you might need to spot them a major religious figure/organizer, but beyond that, I imagine that you'd also need to prevent the Islamic conquests of Central Asia. That, and/or a more chaotic religious situation in Europe taking the pressure off of the Magyars and Bulgars to convert to Christianity.

Sikhism: Perhaps in a world with much weaker British presence in India, the Sikh Empire manages to consolidate its rule in OTL Pakistan and slowly convert a majority of the population?

What are your thoughts on these example - plausible, or not? Additionally, what are other religions you think could've gotten over a hundred million followers?
 
On Christianity:

Valentinian Christianity: Valentinius himself was this close to gaining the Papacy. Have him gain it, and his rather antinomian Gnostic movement could gain a lot of followers in the WRE.
 
Would it be too late that Roman Paganism could survive and get 100 millions followers by 2018?

Perhaps Christianity is not succesful in Egypt and there could be revival of Egyptian polytheism?
 
Manichaeism.
And yes, zoroastrianism is that easy.
Paganism in Europe is doable, but less likely.
And judaism is close enough anyway, isn't it?
 
Druidism or something more likely Druidic derived, maybe mixing Germanic culture with Druidism providing the civilizing "glue" and institutional strength that Christian Monks did otl, making a true "Western" Civilization.

Classical Paganism I don't think was 'obviously doomed' in the 3rd-4th century. I do think like a lot of things that fall apart, it is blindsided by a different approach. So I think without Constantine it could keep going. There are festivals in India that are 3000 years old so why not Greece.
 
You could get Gnosticism in various parts of the empire, also mithraism along the Limes. Cult of Isis was popular in Egypt.

If you butterfly away islam, what you will get is a Zoroastrian Persia, a Nestorian Mesopotamia, Gulf and Central Asia being a competition ground for Nestorians, Buddhists, Manicheans Zoroastrians and Tengris. .. the Indus valley being a mixed Buddhist- Hindu area. Egypt and Nubia being Myaphysite, while Maghreb... well the coast being Catholic, the hinterland Donatist and mountains ... Berber mythology+ Donatism... with some Jews as well. Kanem will adopt either Coptic or Donatist Christianity.
With a Zoroastrian Persia it is questionable what religion will the Khazars pick, but Hijaz and Yemen will likely stay Jewish or Hebrew Christian...
 
And judaism is close enough anyway, isn't it?

The world's Jewish population is much smaller than one hundred million.

Classical Paganism I don't think was 'obviously doomed' in the 3rd-4th century. I do think like a lot of things that fall apart, it is blindsided by a different approach. So I think without Constantine it could keep going. There are festivals in India that are 3000 years old so why not Greece.

Well, I didn't have in kind any POD earlier than when Constantine officially declared that Christianity was to be tolerated by the Roman Empire.
 
  • Several other cults could gain prevalence in Rome during and after the Crisis of the 3rd Century, replacing Christianity but having a similar path through history. I'd say that the strongest of these options is likely a Cult of Isis that integrates neoplatonism, providing both the intellectual stimulus and popular appeal that made Christianity so popular and influential.
  • The only problem I can see with Zoroastrianism--and Sikhism, for that matter--is that each tends to 1) not be too concerned with prosecuting other religions and 2) not actively encourage conversion. Thus, they might not spread widely over a conquered population to the degree that Christianity and Islam especially did IOTL.
  • Jainism could in theory take on a similar course to Buddhism, especially if Asoka patronizes Jainism rather than Buddhism.
  • A colonizing Japan could spread Shinto to over 100m people
 
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Mithraism or perhaps Sol Invictus?

Mithraism is rather exclusive, completely forbidding women and generally only appealing to soldiers. Meanwhile the Cult of Sol Invictus was essentially a creation of Aurelian, and never had the stability and organicity that Christianity had. A reforming Mithraism or a longer-lasting Cult of Sol could overcome these issues, but there isn't really an alternate history I can see where these become more prevalent with any POD other than an altered doctrine.
 
It is sadly ignored on this forum, but Manichaeism was in its day a major world religion that spread from Gaul to China and survived quite well despite only a small period of state support under the Uyghurs.

There are a multitude of PODs that could have gotten it to prominence, particularly when you consider its popularity amongst steppes nomads.
 

Kaze

Banned
Shintoism.
-- Japan wins World War Two.

Manichaeism.
--Toghrul who was Manichaeism leaning or at least tolerant of it makes it the official Mongol Religion. His son-in-law Genghis either has an unfortunate accident while raiding (oops the enemy put an arrow into his neck, where-in Toghrul conquers the Mongol Empire) ...or... Genghis takes up Manicheanism as well spreading it as he conquers and while he is in Russia, the cult of Mani replaces the Russian Orthodox Church.
 
Would it be too late that Roman Paganism could survive and get 100 millions followers by 2018?
In terms on numbers, Chinese Folk Religions could easily be considered a major world religion but are not considered such because the government didn't promote it. It could easily be the case in Rome where a godless ideology or faith takes over the government. The peasant population could stay polytheistic but anybody seeking social advancement would have to convert to be liable for government positions.
 
Taoism, maybe? Especially if Buddhism isn't as popular in east Asia.

Shintoism.
-- Japan wins World War Two.

That would either (a) require a lot more people to identify as Shinto, or (b) Buddhism not to be anywhere near as popular. The POD would probably need to be rather earlier than WWII.
 
Arian Christianity: Technically a form of Christianity, but one considered heretical by Chalcedonian Christians, so I'm throwing this in for consideration.

I sometimes wonder if a stronger and wider Arian Christianity might have butterflied away the rise of Islam. Islam actually has some elements with Arianism though IIRC Arianism still believes in the Trinity (feel free to correct me). Heck, maybe Muhammad would have been seen as an Arian "saint" of sorts (or "heretic" on the flip side of the coin!), rather than a founder of a totally "new" religion. So this "alternate Islam" instead is a sect of Arian Christianity that began in Arabia, founded by "Saint Muhammad" (or, to opposing sects, the heretic Muhammad!).
 
Shintoism.
-- Japan wins World War Two.
That would either (a) require a lot more people to identify as Shinto, or (b) Buddhism not to be anywhere near as popular. The POD would probably need to be rather earlier than WWII.
This is a reflection of how hard it is to categorise numbers of adherents of each religious tradition. It's not actually that easy, particularly given that the question is often framed by people who are most familiar with Abrahamic religions, and so pose the question in a way which does not account for other religious traditions.

Abrahamic religions (mostly) are based on the idea that everyone in a (say) Christian community is a member of that religion, and that they would identify themselves as a member of that religion unless they have actively rejected it (atheist or converted to another religion).

That doesn't work so well with, say, Shintoism. If asked if they are a member of Shinto, most Japanese may say no (depending on how the question is framed). Yet asked if they have visited a Shinto shrine at some point and performed Shinto rituals, many more Japanese may say yes. Up to 80% of Japanese people have done so, depending on the source.

This is because the number of people in Japan who belong to an organised Shinto group is relatively small, but the number of people who perform the rituals of Shinto at some stage in their lives is much higher.

This is why you can find sources which say that there are 3-4 million Shintoists in Japan, and others which say that there are 116 million Shintoists in Japan. (I found both numbers with a quick google search.)

Or you can find sources which say there are 12 million followers of Taoism. Or 173 million followers of Taoism.

For that matter, I've found sources which claim only 200 million Buddhists, or 1600 million Buddhists.

Short version: defining how many people follow a given religion is not an easy proposition. Religious identity is not straightforward. But depending on how religious identity is defined, there are more religions which may already qualify in OTL besides those listed. Shintoism and Taoism, for starters.

So specifying a POD which may provide for other religions with 100+ million adherents should also take into account how religious membership is defined.
 
Would have been interesting seeing a non-Christian Syrian-Egyptian Gnostic analogue of Persian Gnosticism's Manichaeism and Mandaeism (possibly with a Cult of Mary-like veneration of Norea).

Rahmanism/Hanifism

Some syncretic religion established by the Mongol Empire that is basically a Mongol analogue of Islam.

Monotheistic equivalents/evolutions of Greek/Roman mythology as well as Celtic, Germanic/Norse and Slavic Paganism.
 
Probably all of those indigenous religions which were suppressed under Christianity and Islam, in that there simply never evolves that sort of missionary religion to replace them. Or if there did, it would be like we can describe Japan as both Shinto (their indigenous faith) and Buddhist (an introduced faith). Greco-Roman philosophy might provide a fertile ground for an equivalent religion to Buddhism to emerge. Maybe the most likely is some syncretic religion between Christianity, local paganism, and Greek Neoplatonism, followed by the Germanic peoples and later spread to others in Northern Europe (Slavs etc.).

Other than that, likely something we can't even imagine, created by a prophet like Muhammad who seizes on the trends of his time to create a world religion. Christianity is pretty ASB as it is, given its origins in a heterodox Jewish sect.

You could get Gnosticism in various parts of the empire, also mithraism along the Limes. Cult of Isis was popular in Egypt.

If you butterfly away islam, what you will get is a Zoroastrian Persia, a Nestorian Mesopotamia, Gulf and Central Asia being a competition ground for Nestorians, Buddhists, Manicheans Zoroastrians and Tengris. .. the Indus valley being a mixed Buddhist- Hindu area. Egypt and Nubia being Myaphysite, while Maghreb... well the coast being Catholic, the hinterland Donatist and mountains ... Berber mythology+ Donatism... with some Jews as well. Kanem will adopt either Coptic or Donatist Christianity.
With a Zoroastrian Persia it is questionable what religion will the Khazars pick, but Hijaz and Yemen will likely stay Jewish or Hebrew Christian...

Donatism was well on the decline by the time of Islam (and St. Augustine's accounts of being a Manichaean presents another interesting dynamic to the religious makeup of Late Antiquity North Africa). There's no way that Kanem or other West Africans might adhere to it. Although West African Christianity is probably going to be pretty odd, and influenced by certain Berber traditions as well as indigenous traditions. Islam was still spreading into the colonial era, and many "Islamic" rulers there were pretty heterodox throughout history.

Speaking of the Berbers, a "Berber Islam", like what the Barghawata adhered to, has huge potential, and probably would have emerged regardless of Islam (except it would've been more Christian influenced as Christianity would continue to dominate North Ar). I call it a "Berber Islam" since the expansion of the Berbers at the expense of their enemies like the Romans or the Vandals in Late Antiquity could have created a situation where said "Berber Islam" might have expanded throughout the Mediterranean world as a competitor to Christianity. And as we see IOTL, Islam's Arab roots proved no hinderence to its spread.

And the Himyarites in Yemen had been conquered by Axum, so it likely wouldn't be too Jewish or Hebrew without Islam. And the religion the Yemenis follow will likely influence India and Indonesia, so it could cause a boost to Keralite Christianity (and effects on Christianity in Indonesia and the Maldives).

  • Several other cults could gain prevalence in Rome during and after the Crisis of the 3rd Century, replacing Christianity but having a similar path through history. I'd say that the strongest of these options is likely a Cult of Isis that integrates neoplatonism, providing both the intellectual stimulus and popular appeal that made Christianity so popular and influential.
  • The only problem I can see with Zoroastrianism--and Sikhism, for that matter--is that each tends to 1) not be too concerned with prosecuting other religions and 2) not actively encourage conversion. Thus, they might not spread widely over a conquered population to the degree that Christianity and Islam especially did IOTL.
  • Jainism could in theory take on a similar course to Buddhism, especially if Asoka patronizes Jainism rather than Buddhism.
  • A colonizing Japan could spread Shinto to over 100m people

Japan can spread Shinto, but the Persians can't spread Zoroastrianism? Both are ethnic religions, and indeed Zoroastrianism was reported in ancient Armenia and China, probably related to the Persian cultural sphere (Armenians had a big influence from Persia, and the Sogdians were major merchants). The only way you're getting 100 million Shinto (in addition to that of Japan proper) is through that many more culturally Japanese people, probably Japanese colonisation of Northern Asia and the Americas.

It is sadly ignored on this forum, but Manichaeism was in its day a major world religion that spread from Gaul to China and survived quite well despite only a small period of state support under the Uyghurs.

There are a multitude of PODs that could have gotten it to prominence, particularly when you consider its popularity amongst steppes nomads.

Certainly, but it would have a huge amount of variations globally. The Manichaeism found in late Yuan China doesn't appear much like the Manichaeism found in Late Antiquity.
 
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