Most Important US Election of the 20th Century?

So I've been doing some reading about the 1928 election and wanted to put out my radical suggestion, that 1928 was the most important election in 20th century American history, despite being widely overlooked.

Prior to 1928 the vote of white ethnic voters (i.e. at the time- Italians, Irish, etc) was largely split between the major parties. Southern hostility towards Catholicism had largely prevented the incorporation of ethnic demands into the party platform and the ideological differences in the early 20th century were negligible (remember the progressive movement found its home in the GOP largely. By contemporary standards the GOP ran to the left of the Democrats in 1904 and 1916, were similar depending on the issues in 1908, and ran splinter candidates to the left in 1912 and 1924. Only in 1920 could you really posit a united GOP to the right of the Democrats in presidential politics). Furthermore, urban centers favored the Republican Party by a significant margin in 1924.

However, the 1928 nomination of Al Smith lead to a massive realignment. Catholic voters favored the Democrats in this election by a 75%-80% margin and major urban areas, as a result, swung heavily into the Democratic column. At the same time the Solid South splintered, the border states being lost and several deep South states (Alabama, Georgia) nearly joined them. While the South would return to the fold, it would never again be truly comfortable with Democratic presidents and would nominate splinter candidates or go at least in portion to the Republicans time and time again until finally fleeing the Democrats for good.

This was, in turn, incredible influential over the 1932 nomination process. The influx of ethnic, urban, and left-wing northerners into the party after 1928 tipped the balance of a narrow convention in favor of Roosevelt. If Smith had decided against running in this clearly lost-cause election and the Democrats had nominated say Cordell Hunt or James Reed, FDR would never have been able to get the 2/3 necessary to win the nomination in '32. The result would either have been John Nance Garner or, more likely, a compromise candidate of some sort.

So without Al Smith's nomination 1928, the national Democratic Party remains much more under the influence of the south, the New Deal may never come about, urban centers would not be near-universally Democratic, and progressivism remains divided between the parties.

I'm thinking of expanding from this scenario (although it would take an earlier PoD to deny Smith the nomination) but I was wondering for now what everyone else thinks. What do you think the most important election of the 20th century was? Bonus points for interesting choices ;)
 
I would say 1932, because it marked the beginning of the Democrats being the liberals and the Republicans being the conservatives. Prior to that, American political parties were basically a combination of interest group coalitions and Civil War allegiances that had little to do with ideology.
 
I would say the election of 1912. The socialists reached their all time high mark, the incumbent recieved third place and it represented the begining shift in the political parties economic policies.
 
I think 1928 was hugely important - if Coolidge had run for another term, he probably would have handled the 1929 Stock Market Crash very differently from Hoover - most likely he doesn't go along with Smoot-Hawley.

Coolidge, by keeping calm, manages to keep the panic down. By not running in 1932, and by getting the economy back on track, he manages to bring about visible improvement by 1932. Hoover also added a massive tax hike in 1932 - taking the top rate from 24% to 63%, and even put a tax on writing checks!

Coolidge once said about Hoover: "for six years that man has given me unsolicited advice—all of it bad."

So, suppose Coolidge decides to run in 1928. If Coolidge remains in office, those tax hikes don't happen. FDR may still win in 1932 (perhaps against Hoover), but he doesn't get the landslide, it's only a 51-49 victory, and a similarly close electoral vote. Hoover's popularity keeps things close, but he ultimately loses.

Coolidge does spend his third term working for something akin to the Twenty-Second Amendment. But FDR's New Deal doesn't happen. He does pass a tax increase, but it causes economic contraction, and Alf Landon beats him in 1936, promising a return to the successful policies of Coolidge.
 
Pretty good idea that 28 led to the success of 32 and the New Deal. An other election that is similiar would be 76. The Democrats should have won easily after the mess of Nixon. But they ran a candidate that never would have won if not for the mess of Nixon. Carter did an ok job once in office but he lost the so called Reagan democrats in 80. With 80 and Reagan we get the error of giving huge tax cuts to the rich and trying to borrow to cover the difference mess we are still in today. So 28 led to success and 76 led to failure.
 
Pretty good idea that 28 led to the success of 32 and the New Deal. An other election that is similiar would be 76. The Democrats should have won easily after the mess of Nixon. But they ran a candidate that never would have won if not for the mess of Nixon. Carter did an ok job once in office but he lost the so called Reagan democrats in 80. With 80 and Reagan we get the error of giving huge tax cuts to the rich and trying to borrow to cover the difference mess we are still in today. So 28 led to success and 76 led to failure.

Carter seems to be the classic case of no one taking him seriously as a contender until far too late.
 
1912, 1928/1932, and 1976/1980 are the key moments. I combined the four latter ones because the cause and effect. 1932 and 1980 are both important, yes, but neither would be important if not for the preceding election.

Every election is important, but those had the most long-term effects on the electorate really.
 
I think 1928 was hugely important - if Coolidge had run for another term, he probably would have handled the 1929 Stock Market Crash very differently from Hoover - most likely he doesn't go along with Smoot-Hawley.

Coolidge, by keeping calm, manages to keep the panic down. By not running in 1932, and by getting the economy back on track, he manages to bring about visible improvement by 1932. Hoover also added a massive tax hike in 1932 - taking the top rate from 24% to 63%, and even put a tax on writing checks!

Coolidge once said about Hoover: "for six years that man has given me unsolicited advice—all of it bad."

So, suppose Coolidge decides to run in 1928. If Coolidge remains in office, those tax hikes don't happen. FDR may still win in 1932 (perhaps against Hoover), but he doesn't get the landslide, it's only a 51-49 victory, and a similarly close electoral vote. Hoover's popularity keeps things close, but he ultimately loses.

Coolidge does spend his third term working for something akin to the Twenty-Second Amendment. But FDR's New Deal doesn't happen. He does pass a tax increase, but it causes economic contraction, and Alf Landon beats him in 1936, promising a return to the successful policies of Coolidge.

The concept of economic contraction as a result of government spending is non-following, and remember FDR is following Keynes advise, a man who still opposes raising taxes in a recession/depression.

I don't see a Coolidge administration doing very well handling a crisis which was caused primarily by a deflationary collapse in the purchasing power of the average person, with the effect on the supply side being a result rather than a cause.
 
I would say 1932, because it marked the beginning of the Democrats being the liberals and the Republicans being the conservatives. Prior to that, American political parties were basically a combination of interest group coalitions and Civil War allegiances that had little to do with ideology.

Maybe as a result of the election, but during the election itself, that was not the case. The Democrats ran to the right of Hoover much of the time, with FDR saying wasteful government programs needed to be eliminated and Garner saying the GOP was taking America down the road to socialism.
 
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