Most evenly matched WWII

[DominusNovus]

Without removing key participants (UK, US, France, Russia, Germany, Japan, China) entirely from the conflict, make the Second World War as even as possible.

You've can start messing around with things immediately after the First World War. The opposing sides should be *somewhat* recognizable. The war should take place by the 40s at the latest.

Bonus points for creative solutions.

 

[basileus]

Hmm, let's try. Big alliances, maybe?

Germany, the US, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Finland, Italy, Spain, Poland, Hungary, Nationalist China, Iran, Siam/Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Argentina, Bolivia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, Liberia (and later Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and Tibet).

against France, Britain and Commonwealth, Soviet Union, Afghanistan, Japan, Mongolia, Ethiopia, Mexico, Honduras, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil, Portugal, Yugoslavia, Yemen, Greece, Romania (and later Norway, Belgium and Switzerland).

Likely flashpoint: Japanese-Chinese conflict. No Nazis, resurgent Germany, Red but not Stalinist Russia (Trotskij?), strained Anglo-US relations, maybe a civil war in Canada and a Finno-Soviet conflict with Polish intervention.

 

[Bill Cameron]

Without removing key participants (UK, US, France, Russia, Germany, Japan, China) entirely from the conflict, make the Second World War as even as possible.

DN,

How about slashing US economic power? IIRC, by 1945 the US alone was producing over 50% of the manufactured goods in the world.

Let's make the Great Depression far nastier. A bigger, badder Dust Bowl, and perhaps a few outbreaks of sectarian violence too. Let Sinclair Lewis just squeak a win out in the election for the governor of California. He begins his socialist remedies, inlcuding printing a type of money only good in that state. The Feds aren't happy with this attempt at autarky but Huey Long in Louisianna is quick to copy parts of it. Meanwhile, more okies keep pouring into California and the state explodes politically. There's lots of violence; Sinclair vs. Anti-Sinclair, Californians vs. Okies, etc., etc., and the Feds get dragged into things.

California's meltdown triggers a few similar meltdowns elsewhere, all complete all sorts of nastiness. None of it really approaches a civil war, but certain regions at certain times are rather dicey.

This Greater Depression leaves the US less 'unified', economically devasted, with more radicals and reactionaries active in politics, and a far weaker pre-war military build-up. When Pearl Harbor occurs, the US stills enters the war with an even smaller military to expand, without unified purpose of the OTL, and with a smaller physical plant for the war economy to harnass.

With the 'Arsenal of Democracy' burying the Axis under every known type of war material, the war would last longer. May not even see the Bomb as there'd be precious little industrial capacity to build one.


Bill

 

[Roberto]

DN,

How about slashing US economic power? IIRC, by 1945 the US alone was producing over 50% of the manufactured goods in the world.

Let's make the Great Depression far nastier. A bigger, badder Dust Bowl, and perhaps a few outbreaks of sectarian violence too. Let Sinclair Lewis just squeak a win out in the election for the governor of California. He begins his socialist remedies, inlcuding printing a type of money only good in that state. The Feds aren't happy with this attempt at autarky but Huey Long in Louisianna is quick to copy parts of it. Meanwhile, more okies keep pouring into California and the state explodes politically. There's lots of violence; Sinclair vs. Anti-Sinclair, Californians vs. Okies, etc., etc., and the Feds get dragged into things.

California's meltdown triggers a few similar meltdowns elsewhere, all complete all sorts of nastiness. None of it really approaches a civil war, but certain regions at certain times are rather dicey.

This Greater Depression leaves the US less 'unified', economically devasted, with more radicals and reactionaries active in politics, and a far weaker pre-war military build-up. When Pearl Harbor occurs, the US stills enters the war with an even smaller military to expand, without unified purpose of the OTL, and with a smaller physical plant for the war economy to harnass.

With the 'Arsenal of Democracy' burying the Axis under every known type of war material, the war would last longer. May not even see the Bomb as there'd be precious little industrial capacity to build one.


Bill

That'd make a TIGHT TL, Bill. In addition to the meltdowns, makes some of the Banana Republics sieze the moment to throw off American influence, and voila, you have an economically crippled US. With such a big disaster, I don't know that the Japanese would even have a reason to bomb PH ITTL.

 

[Dean_the_Young]

DN,

How about slashing US economic power? IIRC, by 1945 the US alone was producing over 50% of the manufactured goods in the world.
Bill

This sounds good, but...

This is because the last 6 years were spent blowing the developed world to hell and gone. The US produced much less than half the world's goods in 1939, or 41, so this isn't a valid point for making a balanced WW2. Presumedly, a balanced war wouldn't start after four years of carpet bombing industrial cities.

 

[Bill Cameron]

This sounds good, but... This is because the last 6 years were spent blowing the developed world to hell and gone.

Dean,

shrug Surf over to www.combinedfleet.com, look at some of the US vs. Japanese economic numbers, and remember that for most of that period Japan wasn't being being bombed. And, as is always pointed out on this forum, German war production actually increased during 1944-1945.

Cripple the US economy and the Allies can't bury the Axis under war material.


Bill

 

[DuQuense]

?How about this one?

June 1941
Germany invades Russia---US Certifies lend Lease to Russia

August 1941
First L-L reashes Valdistok

Septembre 1941
First L-L reaches Arch Angel

Octobre 1941
German Army stalls in front of Moscow
Mount Hood, Cascades Erupts.

Novembre 1941
Heavy Ash covers Western States, Medium Ash reaches the Mississippi Valley, and light ash reachs to the East Coast.
Port citys of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland Closed,
San Francisco, San Diego, Chicago, New Orleans severly Inpacted.
All Transcontinental travel, except for special Government Trains, with laborers In Gas Masks clearing the tracks, stops

Decembre 1941
Lend-Lease Cancelled, Canada effectively out of the War,
Japan correctly reading the US, bypasses the Phillipines, and attacks British South Asia.
------------------------------------------------------------------
You now have British/Empire[minus Canada], and Russia v Germany/Italy/Japan.
the US is out of it for the forseeable future. no L-L means no Spam, Boots, Gloves, Trucks, Planes, or Liberty Ships.

Yes both Russia and Britian can produce all these things, but at the cost of producing Guns, Cannon, & Tanks.

 

[DominusNovus]

Okay, new rule: no handicapping the US.

Two reasons:

I like the US
That'd just make the war smaller, which isn't really what I'm aiming for.

 

[Thande]

I'd argue that Bobby Hardenbrooke's Shattered World TL is an example of a more evenly matched, but still recognisable in lineup, WW2...

 

[Roberto]

I'm not sure ShatteredWorld is the best example, but it is a pretty good TL nonetheless.

 

[Thande]

I'm not sure ShatteredWorld is the best example, but it is a pretty good TL nonetheless.

It's probably farther removed from OTL than what Dominus wants, but I think it's certainly more equal (in Europe, not the Pacific, at least)

 

[Roberto]

It's probably farther removed from OTL than what Dominus wants, but I think it's certainly more equal (in Europe, not the Pacific, at least)

Agreed. I eagerly await the fall of Beria's SU, but Bobby Hardenbrook hasn't posted in a while, thus losing my terrible short attention.

 

[Uber_Amoeba]

Hmm. No handicapping the US? In that case, a pretty even timeline might be a sort of dogpile on America, without it being too easy (with enough Russian conscripts marching across the border the number artillery pieces Pittsburgh can produce ceases to matter.

Here's my attempt:

In the wake of WWI, Socialism sweeps Europe. First the Bolsheviks in Russia, followed immediately by the Spartacists in Germany, dividing helpless Eastern Europe between them. Mosley's Maximists take the British Parliament, and the French Republic, never too stable and surrounded by Socialists, joins with them. After a brief conflict by the new EuroSoc forces, Fascist Italy, Iron Guard Romania, and the rest of the Balkan juntas fall, and the charismatic Tito governs the new territories. Trotsky is made Chairman of EuroSoc in '34 and vows to bring Socialism to all the working masses.

China is torn asunder, as the Warlords, formerly unable to move openly against the Nationalists, run rampant as Mao's forces, supported by EuroSoc, enter a life-or-death grapple with Chiang Kai-Shek. The Japanese take advantage of this, and without any sort of United Front to oppose them, gobble up China and install a few puppet regimes.

America, always suspicious of this 'Socialism' stuff, turns Reactionary, allying itself to the equally paranoid Japanese. Latin America is split between those who grow closer to the U.S. of A., becoming protectorates in everything but name, and the Socialists.

The divide between the Asio-American bloc and EuroSoc grows, and both alliances gear up for the war they know is coming.

In 1938, Mexico explodes. The increasing corrupt, oppressive conservative government is overthrown by socialist revolutionaries. America refuses to recognize the new government, since a Socialist nation on its very borders is unacceptable. The Army is sent in to support the president. EuroSoc condemns this act of 'Fascist, brutish bourgeois manipulation' and sends in its own soldiers.

This alone would not necessarily mean war, however, at the same time, a normal skirmish along the Manchurian border escalates into an all-out battle between Soviet and Japanese garrisons, leading to an all-out attack on the city of Heihe, and war is declared between Japan and the Soviet Union, and the two nations drag their allies to war.

There you go. Pretty equal sides, and even arguably evenly matched between ideologies, since it's not super-evil Stalinism and, well, only the Japanese are really, really evil.

 

[Max Sinister]

Keep the US out.

Or what about the Tripartite pact fighting with Stalin against US + British Empire?

 

[Dean_the_Young]

Keep the US out.

Or what about the Tripartite pact fighting with Stalin against US + British Empire?

This sounds impressive, but is a bit harder. The main thing is manpower vs. seapower. There's no question of who's going to rule the waves here, but one fact is that America and Britain proper are dwarfed in terms of manpower to either Germany or Russia, and a much more thorough (and economy draining) draft would be put in place.

Of course, another option is that the Anglo-Americans heavily utilize/rely on fighting men from their colonies/spheres of influence. Millions of Indians, armed by the US, with the American Foreign Legion of South Americans backing them up. (Or maybe not even foreign legions; Mexico sent a squadron of fighter pilots in US planes against Germany OTL. Lean on them for troops?)

 

[DominusNovus]

but one fact is that America and Britain proper are dwarfed in terms of manpower to either Germany or Russia

America had around 130 million, Britain had around 40 million, Germany had around 70 million, and Russia had 190 million.

America was definitely not dwarfed by the German population, though it was smaller than the soviet population, but not by a drastic scale.

 

[B_Munro]

There you go. Pretty equal sides, and even arguably evenly matched between ideologies, since it's not super-evil Stalinism and, well, only the Japanese are really, really evil.

Interesting! Couple minor quibbles, though: Mosley wasn't that big a wheel on the left in the 20's, and I have real trouble seeing him leading a successful socialist revolution in the UK. (And if he did somehow pull it off, he'd have rather too large an ego to take orders from Trotsky very seriously). Also, with a 3000+ mile long border to slip weaponry across, the Japanese are going to have a real fun time of it trying to hold onto their posessions in China and keep their puppets afloat. How about Red Eurasia (including most of China) vs the UK (suffering badly from internal left-wing agitation), Japan (tied down in an unwinnable conflict in China) and the US? Trouble is it's going to be dammn hard for the US and allies to invade the other side...I guess it depends on who develops the Bomb first.

Bruce

 

[Karlos]

Easier:
The germans go for Moscow in summer 1941, Stalin dies in the Kremlin and the USSR collapses. After a year of cleaning the mess, and with the Baku oil and other resources in their hands, the fight between germans (plus japan and Italy) and US-UK is more or less even. Guess Hitler would go for planes, rockets and subs to counter alllied air and sea power.

 

[Riain]

Form a tight alliance of Germany, SU, Italy, Holland and Japan and have all ruled by competent leaders. In that combo you have 36% of TWIP compared with US/UK/France's 57%, and due to their land borders their potential is more easily maximised. Carefully coordinated assaults, among a large range of sharing and cooperation, could make important gains and paralyse the Allies.

 

[DominusNovus]

Interesting! Couple minor quibbles, though: Mosley wasn't that big a wheel on the left in the 20's, and I have real trouble seeing him leading a successful socialist revolution in the UK. (And if he did somehow pull it off, he'd have rather too large an ego to take orders from Trotsky very seriously). Also, with a 3000+ mile long border to slip weaponry across, the Japanese are going to have a real fun time of it trying to hold onto their posessions in China and keep their puppets afloat. How about Red Eurasia (including most of China) vs the UK (suffering badly from internal left-wing agitation), Japan (tied down in an unwinnable conflict in China) and the US? Trouble is it's going to be dammn hard for the US and allies to invade the other side...I guess it depends on who develops the Bomb first.

Bruce

I like that idea. China falls to the communists, and then the west supports Japan for being the lesser evil.