Most Effective Target for Atomic Attack on Nazi Germany

Let's imagine that somehow the US gets the bomb 1 year earlier, with 3 ready by August 1944.
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How far back can the P.O.D go? If different decisions are being made in Britain vis-à-vis Tube Alloys, can they also be made regarding engine development?

You're also forgetting the missing piece...the aircraft to lift it, the B-29 wouldn't likely be ready in time.

- Silverplating a Lancaster to carry and drop the first A bomb would have been easier and the aircraft was, at the time, more reliable than the new B29.

Short of putting RATO Bottles on a Lanc, there's no way to get it flying high enough(35,000 feet) and fast enough (350mph) to avoid getting destroyed by the bomb blast.
The crew has 43 seconds after release to be far enough way

"When the Nene appeared on the scene, Dorey set forth to put four of them in a Lancaster in place of the Merlins. We had calculated that the four-Nene Lancaster would exceed 400mph and fly well above 30,000ft. It would thus be immune to enemy action, either from fighters or AA fire. This project was never completed, because the war ended, but he did install two Nenes in a Lancastrian, leaving the inboard Merlins unaltered.

1. Sir Stanley Hooker, Not much of an Engineer: An Autobiography (Shrewbury: Livesly Ltd, 1991), 106.

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"The Bombing of Hiroshima: August 6, 1945 ...
0905: Van Kirk announces Ten minutes to the AP. "The Enola Gay is at an altitude of 31,060ft with an airspeed of 200 miles an hour when the city of Hiroshima first comes into view."

2. "Hiroshima and Nagasaki Bombing Timeline", Atomic Heritage Foundation, https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/hiroshima-and-nagasaki-bombing-timeline .

Ploesti was captured by the Russians in July 1944 so that is off the list.

August 30th 1944. 2nd Jassy-Kishinev Offensive didn't kick off until 20th August 1944.
 
"When the Nene appeared on the scene, Dorey set forth to put four of them in a Lancaster in place of the Merlins. We had calculated that the four-Nene Lancaster would exceed 400mph and fly well above 30,000ft. It would thus be immune to enemy action, either from fighters or AA fire. This project was never completed, because the war ended, but he did install two Nenes in a Lancastrian, leaving the inboard Merlins unaltered.

When Northrop went from the prop XB-35 to the jet YB-49 the loss of stabilization that the spinning props gave meant the addition of as set of four dorsal and ventral fins, bus still wasn't enough to get to the stability that the earlier bomber had, and that adding more thrust to a draggy airframe doesn't always mean as much speed as expected
 
riggerrob said:
As for range, by late 1944, WALLIES had liberated much of France, Belgium and Holland. They could almost launch bombers from the Western bank of the Rhine River!

On August 6, the Allies had barely broken out from Northern France. Paris wouldn't be liberated for 2 weeks.

My fathers medium bomber group of the 9th AF was able to relocate to eastern France in September. One of the early bomber groups to do so. He recalled the apple orchard adjacent to the airfield was harvested a couple days after he arrived with the ground echelon.
 

kernals12

Banned
I'd considered that too until noting that conventional bombing had leveled something like 90% of the city, Chemnitz is less than 50% destroyed in early 1945 - hence why I added it to my list...

Why not the Fulda Gap along the proposed Soviet/Western occupational zone boundary?
According to Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction, Krupp's steel plant was not fully knocked out until October 1944.
 
If three bombs are available in August 1944 then I would imagine that there would be at least a squadron of B-29s available or soon to be available to deliver the weapons.
What I see happening is that one of the first squadrons of B-29s formed would be drafted (“Voluntold” in military speak) for special duty. The aircraft themselves could be modified to become a Silverplate or a basic Silverplate B-29 is built at the factory. The problem with this is that it will take aircraft and crews away from being deployed against the Japanese.
Hap Arnold could postpone or cancel Operation Matterhorn with the 58th Wing or delay the first B-29s being sent to The Marianas with the 73rd Bomber Wing. Either way there is going to be massive pressure on Tibbets or whoever else is in charge to make sure the atomic bomb mission goes off without a hitch.
Add Darmstadt to the target list. OTL it was hit by the RAF September 1944. I think a Targeting Committee would put on the list of potential targets.
 
OTL Penney was the scientist who analyzed blast radius, etc. and recommended a parachute-delayed air-burst. He was also the one who recommended targeting Hiroshima and Nagasaki where surrounding hills would focus the blast to increase explosive damage.

ATL WI the first few A-bombs were fused to detonate on impact?

The reason you want an airburst is the Mach stem, where the blast from the ground forms a nice 'curtain' at the base where the two shockwaves build together to annihilate stuff in its path.
 
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