Most Effective Target for Atomic Attack on Nazi Germany

kernals12

Banned
Let's imagine that somehow the US gets the bomb 1 year earlier, with 3 ready by August 1944. So where do we drop them? We can't bomb Berlin because we need a functioning government to negotiate terms of surrender. Cities in the Ruhr valley would be okay but a lot of the bomb's blast would be wasted on civilian areas. In terms of effectiveness in damaging Germany's efforts to make war, the best target would be a 3 square mile industrial estate west of Leipzig known as Leunawerke. During the war, this complex used 35000 workers, including 10,000 slave laborers to produce the chemicals needed for battle including fertilizer, lubricants and synthetic fuel. It was defended with 150 AA guns and copious smoke screens. This made accurate conventional bombing virtually impossible, with only 29% of the bombs dropped reaching the inside of the factory gates during daylight raids, during radar guided raids this dropped to 5.1%. As this photo from nukemap shows, a 15 Kt blast would wipe most of the facility from the face of the earth and do severe damage to the German war effort even if Hitler chooses to go on fighting.
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Let's imagine that somehow the US gets the bomb 1 year earlier, with 3 ready by August 1944. So where do we drop them? We can't bomb Berlin because we need a functioning government to negotiate terms of surrender. Cities in the Ruhr valley would be okay but a lot of the bomb's blast would be wasted on civilian areas. In terms of effectiveness in damaging Germany's efforts to make war, the best target would be a 3 square mile industrial estate west of Leipzig known as Leunawerke. During the war, this complex used 35000 workers, including 10,000 slave laborers to produce the chemicals needed for battle including fertilizer, lubricants and synthetic fuel. It was defended with 150 AA guns and copious smoke screens. This made accurate conventional bombing virtually impossible, with only 29% of the bombs dropped reaching the inside of the factory gates during daylight raids, during radar guided raids this dropped to 5.1%. As this photo from nukemap shows, a 15 Kt blast would wipe the entire facility from the face of the earth and do severe damage to the German war effort even if Hitler chooses to go on fighting.
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Have you read The Big One by Stuart Slade, just bomb every city in Germany, this means you will kill the majority of the German population and thus there will be nobody who can offer their surrender to you.
 

kernals12

Banned
Have you read The Big One by Stuart Slade, just bomb every city in Germany, this means you will kill the majority of the German population and thus there will be nobody who can offer their surrender to you.
I'm detecting a note of sarcasm here
 

Deleted member 1487

Leuna is A#1. Ploesti is possible to knock out production, but that is likely impossible until Italy is taken.
Take your pick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_campaign_targets_of_World_War_II
Probably also Ludwigshafen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Ludwigshafen_and_Oppau_in_World_War_II

You're also forgetting the missing piece...the aircraft to lift it, the B-29 wouldn't likely be ready in time.

Have you read The Big One by Stuart Slade, just bomb every city in Germany, this means you will kill the majority of the German population and thus there will be nobody who can offer their surrender to you.
Yeah....the Allies were not interested in genocide.
 

kernals12

Banned
Leuna is A#1. Ploesti is possible to knock out production, but that is likely impossible until Italy is taken.
Take your pick: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_campaign_targets_of_World_War_II
Probably also Ludwigshafen:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Ludwigshafen_and_Oppau_in_World_War_II

You're also forgetting the missing piece...the aircraft to lift it, the B-29 wouldn't likely be ready in time.


Yeah....the Allies were not interested in genocide.
The b-29 was introduced in May 1944.
 

Deleted member 1487

The b-29 was introduced in May 1944.
Introduced doesn't necessarily mean combat operational. Though it seems their first bombing raid was in June 1944.

Regardless the first B-29s were not the 'Silverplate' versions either, which were special adaptations after a long period of testing and the development of a special nuke unit to test tactics for flying the nuke laden special bombers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silverplate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#Preparations
 

kernals12

Banned
Introduced doesn't necessarily mean combat operational. Though it seems their first bombing raid was in June 1944.

Regardless the first B-29s were not the 'Silverplate' versions either, which were special adaptations after a long period of testing and the development of a special nuke unit to test tactics for flying the nuke laden special bombers:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silverplate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki#Preparations
If the US is getting nukes a year early, I think they would have adaptations ready for their bomber.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the US is getting nukes a year early, I think they would have adaptations ready for their bomber.
Not really, it takes a lot of time to make things happen with technology. Are you proposing two separate technological PODs?
 
Not really, it takes a lot of time to make things happen with technology. Are you proposing two separate technological PODs?

I don't see how one would need two separate PoDs. The silverplate program fundamentally piggybacked off the B-29 program and the US already were running prototype B-29s as early as September 1942 despite the silverplate program only being initiated in June 1943, with development on the first prototypes beginning in November and flying by March of '44. If their expecting the bomb earlier, a corresponding moving up of the silverplate program is perfectly conceivable.
 
Sorry, i think hitting Nuremberg might show the Germans that the Allies can hit a important German city, then they might hope for the German Army to remove the Corporal from power.
Nuremburg is a beautiful city.. I would prefer they didn't. You want to really show some power and its a year earlier or so, drop it on a battlefield. I'm petty certain the message will get across quickly. if that fails well.. while I can not condone killing civilian populations .. that's up the folks doing the targeting
 

kernals12

Banned
Nuremburg is a beautiful city.. I would prefer they didn't. You want to really show some power and its a year earlier or so, drop it on a battlefield. I'm petty certain the message will get across quickly. if that fails well.. while I can not condone killing civilian populations .. that's up the folks doing the targeting
Nuremburg IOTL was pulverized by air raids on January 2, 1945. 90% of the city was destroyed. And dropping it on a battlefield would be inefficient and endanger the lives of allied troops who aren't trained in atomic warfare.
 

Deleted member 1487

I don't see how one would need two separate PoDs. The silverplate program fundamentally piggybacked off the B-29 program and the US already were running prototype B-29s as early as September 1942 despite the silverplate program only being initiated in June 1943, with development on the first prototypes beginning in November and flying by March of '44. If their expecting the bomb earlier, a corresponding moving up of the silverplate program is perfectly conceivable.
Production Silverplates weren't ready until later than the first operational B-29 and then were required for training for several months with the Atomic Bomb bomber unit. The Silverplate required several mods that were not available earlier without a technological POD.
Testing began with scale models at the Naval Proving Ground in Dahlgren, Virginia, in August 1943. Modifications began on a prototype Silverplate B-29 known as the "Pullman" in November 1943, and it was used for bomb flight testing at Muroc Army Air Field in California commencing in March 1944. The testing resulted in further modifications to both the bombs and the aircraft.

Seventeen production Silverplate aircraft were ordered in August 1944 to allow the 509th Composite Group to train with the type of aircraft they would have to fly in combat, and for the 216th Army Air Forces Base Unit to test bomb configurations. These were followed by 28 more aircraft that were ordered in February 1945 for operational use by the 509th Composite Group. This batch included the aircraft which were used in the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

.......

The USAAF sent instructions to its Army Air Forces Materiel Command at Wright Field, Ohio, on 30 November 1943, for a highly classified B-29 modification project.[1] The Manhattan Project would deliver full-sized mockups of the weapons shapes to Wright Field by mid-December, where Army Air Forces Materiel Command would modify an aircraft and deliver it for use in bomb flight testing at Muroc Army Air Field in California. B-29-5-BW 42-6259 (referred to as the "Pullman airplane" from an internal code name assigned it by the Engineering Division of Army Air Forces Materiel Command) was delivered to the 468th Bombardment Group at Smoky Hill AAB, Kansas, on 30 November 1943, and flown to Wright Field on 2 December.[8]

Modifications to the bomb bays of 42-6259 were extensive and time-consuming.
 
A few things I’ve heard on this:

- Dresden managed to avoid significant attention from both the USAAF and Bomber Command unusual for a city of its size and significance. Could Dresden have been on the target list?

- Silverplating a Lancaster to carry and drop the first A bomb would have been easier and the aircraft was, at the time, more reliable than the new B29. Training USAAF crew on the Lanc and developing the method of dropping the weapon in anger would have been a little more difficult.
 
Production Silverplates weren't ready until later than the first operational B-29 and then were required for training for several months with the Atomic Bomb bomber unit. The Silverplate required several mods that were not available earlier without a technological POD.

Nothing in your quoted bit indicates that production Silverplates weren't ready until after the first operational B-29 is due to the fact that the technological innovations weren't ready yet as opposed to the fact that the Silverplate program didn't start until June 1943, when the requirements for an aircraft capable of carrying the bomb were finalized. At most it says they were "extensive and time consuming" but that isn't the same thing as "required entirely new technological innovations". Now obviously the Silverplate program can't really start working on modifications until the B-29 at least has a few prototypes, so even if the requirement is identified in June 1942 then the program can't really start until Spring of 1943. Still, planning and testing with scale models that historically took place during the June-November 1943 period could occur.
 

Deleted member 1487

Nothing in your quoted bit indicates that production Silverplates weren't ready until after the first operational B-29 is due to the fact that the technological innovations weren't ready yet as opposed to the fact that the Silverplate program didn't start until June 1943, when the requirements for an aircraft capable of carrying the bomb were finalized. At most it says they were "extensive and time consuming" but that isn't the same thing as "required entirely new technological innovations". Now obviously the Silverplate program can't really start working on modifications until the B-29 at least has a few prototypes, so even if the requirement is identified in June 1942 then the program can't really start until Spring of 1943. Still, planning and testing with scale models that historically took place during the June-November 1943 period could occur.
I didn't quote all the changes, there were engine alterations, changes to the bomb, changes to the lift system, etc. Basically unless there is a POD the system cannot really start to be modified until there is a prototype to be purpose modified for the task. I suppose they could use the first prototype that is reliable for that task and delay the entire program to speed up the process, which may speed things up to get it ready by late 1944-early 1945.
 
I didn't quote all the changes, there were engine alterations, changes to the bomb, changes to the lift system, etc.

You didn't have to. I had already reviewed the Wikipedia article on Silverplates and noted the changes, but I didn't see anything that indicated they were recent and separate technological innovations that were independent of the program itself.

Basically unless there is a POD the system cannot really start to be modified until there is a prototype to be purpose modified for the task. I suppose they could use the first prototype that is reliable for that task and delay the entire program to speed up the process, which may speed things up to get it ready by late 1944-early 1945.

Yes and I did acknowledge as much in my last post. I'd agree with the rough timing described too: basically, I still don't see operational Silverplates showing up until after operational B-29s which at the earliest places them in late-summer/early-autumn 1944. That could line up nicely given the OP, with the bomb being ready in August 1944 instead of 1945. Any earlier though, and the US is gonna have to make the choice between waiting while building up their stockpile or using the Lancaster.
 
- Silverplating a Lancaster to carry and drop the first A bomb would have been easier and the aircraft was, at the time, more reliable than the new B29. Training USAAF crew on the Lanc and developing the method of dropping the weapon in anger would have been a little more difficult.

Short of putting RATO Bottles on a Lanc, there's no way to get it flying high enough(35,000 feet) and fast enough (350mph) to avoid getting destroyed by the bomb blast.
The crew has 43 seconds after release to be far enough way
 
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