From what I've seen regarding various alternative WWII timelines, most people believe that an Allied victory was inevitable, at least under the conditions that the German and Japanese governments placed themselves in. I tend to agree with that sentiment myself, but perhaps for different reasons.
In my mind, the greatest factor favoring the Allied powers is population (please note I said "greatest" and not "only" factor). In 1940, the USA had a population of 131 million, UK was 47 million, France had 42 million, and China had 517 million. For the Axis, Japan had a population of 72 million and Italy had 44 million. I left out Germany and USSR because I can't ever find consistent estimates for their respective populations in 1940, most likely due to the numerous border changes and purges taking place in both countries. For Germany, I've seen estimates ranging from 70 to 95 million. For USSR, I've seen the estimates range from 170 to 200 million. While I won't venture to give an exact total myself, I think it's safe to say that the USSR outnumbered Germany by about 2-1. These numbers don't take into account the British or French colonies or Axis satellite nations, but even then, the numbers heavily favor the Allies.
To me, there is no way that Germany or Japan could have won the war with such huge manpower disparities. The Allies simply had a lot more soldiers to throw into the fire. Even if the average Axis soldier was better trained and better equipped (no consensus on that), China and the USSR alone could field armies at least twice the size of their main Axis opponents.
However, from what I've read on several posts on this and other boards, the main factor behind the Allied victory was natural resources. Neither Germany nor Japan had access to high levels of oil or iron ore, both of which are obviously necessary to fight a large, mechanized war. So my question is this, if Germany and Japan did have large, domestic supplies of oil and steel, would that have been enough to tip the scale in their favor? Or does the huge population disparity still make an Allied victory inevitable?
(yes, I realize that giving Germany and Japan large supplies of natural resources butterflies away most of the conditions leading to WWII to begin with. I don't really know how to figure that into my question. Maybe that's one of the reasons why "How could the Axis have won?" posts always get ridiculed-creating the circumstances under which they could win means recreating thousands of conditions leading to the war to begin with).
In my mind, the greatest factor favoring the Allied powers is population (please note I said "greatest" and not "only" factor). In 1940, the USA had a population of 131 million, UK was 47 million, France had 42 million, and China had 517 million. For the Axis, Japan had a population of 72 million and Italy had 44 million. I left out Germany and USSR because I can't ever find consistent estimates for their respective populations in 1940, most likely due to the numerous border changes and purges taking place in both countries. For Germany, I've seen estimates ranging from 70 to 95 million. For USSR, I've seen the estimates range from 170 to 200 million. While I won't venture to give an exact total myself, I think it's safe to say that the USSR outnumbered Germany by about 2-1. These numbers don't take into account the British or French colonies or Axis satellite nations, but even then, the numbers heavily favor the Allies.
To me, there is no way that Germany or Japan could have won the war with such huge manpower disparities. The Allies simply had a lot more soldiers to throw into the fire. Even if the average Axis soldier was better trained and better equipped (no consensus on that), China and the USSR alone could field armies at least twice the size of their main Axis opponents.
However, from what I've read on several posts on this and other boards, the main factor behind the Allied victory was natural resources. Neither Germany nor Japan had access to high levels of oil or iron ore, both of which are obviously necessary to fight a large, mechanized war. So my question is this, if Germany and Japan did have large, domestic supplies of oil and steel, would that have been enough to tip the scale in their favor? Or does the huge population disparity still make an Allied victory inevitable?
(yes, I realize that giving Germany and Japan large supplies of natural resources butterflies away most of the conditions leading to WWII to begin with. I don't really know how to figure that into my question. Maybe that's one of the reasons why "How could the Axis have won?" posts always get ridiculed-creating the circumstances under which they could win means recreating thousands of conditions leading to the war to begin with).