Most ASB event that happened in OTL

India, China and Persia getting screwed.

But only temporarily, in the case of the first two, considering that they are the world's two most populous countries. Even the Persians didn’t suffer too badly, in comparison to their Greek rivals.
 
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My take on the question is that it should be an occurrence so odd that you get the uneasy feeling that Someone (or Something) 'out there' is manipulating history...

My nominations for what they're worth:
1. Pizarro taking over the Inca Empire (surprised that's not been mentioned already)
2. The survival of the Basque language and people down to the present day. By rights they should have have been absorbed by the Roman Empire 2,000 years ago like every other people in that part of Western Europe. [But I'm glad they weren't]
 
The Portuguese crown had three times more profit than the english one until the XVIII century.

Also, as it was sai before, the rise of Islam.
 
Every great empire has to start as a small one, so <insert small polity> becoming a great empire isn’t ASB.

And many great empires formed on the periphery between the sedentary and non sedentary populations, so groups like the Arabs are also unsurprising, in general. Meanwhile, the Mongols were just the most successful in a long string of nomad empires. The US growing to global dominance? People were predicting that before 1776.

Sure, there’s plenty of black swan events, but they’re only outlandish before they happen, and completely reasonable after.

I can’t come up with a satisfactory answer, myself.
 
Some island nation in east Asia somehow managed to become one of the great powers of the world in the span of a few decades after being isolated for more than 200 years.
 
One of not so often mentioned:

French marshall with low background and without any royal blood becomes king of Sweden despite that he was Catholic, republican and Sweden is Lutheran nation. And his descendants are still monarchs of Sweden 200 years later.
 
ASB: North America/The United States of America

(Circa 1600) Transplanted western European colonists finding and overrunning a vast, resource rich continent, sparsely inhabited by a neolithic culture it could easily brush aside. A once in a history find.
 
The Battle of Alesia
While laying siege to a City, Julius Caesar find himself attacked. He build a second series of Defenses and fought enemy troops on both flaks.
Even more ASB, Caesar manages to win the battle.
 
Every great empire has to start as a small one, so <insert small polity> becoming a great empire isn’t ASB.

And many great empires formed on the periphery between the sedentary and non sedentary populations, so groups like the Arabs are also unsurprising, in general. Meanwhile, the Mongols were just the most successful in a long string of nomad empires. The US growing to global dominance? People were predicting that before 1776.

Sure, there’s plenty of black swan events, but they’re only outlandish before they happen, and completely reasonable after.

I can’t come up with a satisfactory answer, myself.

Unless they're surrounded by bigger and powerful states. It will almost be like no HRE emperor by 1300 and Ulm starts to conquer around.

With Rome I can agree. There weren't too much estabelished states around then, making conquest a lot more likelier. But still... it sounds weird.
 
Royalist and Commonwealth forces in English civil war actually postpone giving battle until a fox hunt in full cry passes between their opposing armies. During Easter Rising of 1916 a local ceasefire is observed every evening between the forces of Constance Markiecwicz and the local British commander to permit the park keeper to go in and feed the ducks.
 
  1. The whole conquest of the Americas. In other timelines smallpox will be probably be seen as a deux ex machina.
  2. The ottomans
  3. Alexander the Great
  4. Entire history of America
  5. Arab conquests of much of the Byzantine and Sisanid empires
  6. Fall of the Soviet Union with surprisingly little bloodshed
 
  1. The whole conquest of the Americas. In other timelines smallpox will be probably be seen as a deux ex machina.
  2. The ottomans
  3. Alexander the Great
  4. Entire history of America
  5. Arab conquests of much of the Byzantine and Sisanid empires
  6. Fall of the Soviet Union with surprisingly little bloodshed

Agree with 2 - 6 but smallpox/some another devastating epidemic disease is not very ASB. Such things were going to evolve due high-level agriculture. In Americas hadn't such diseases so Natives hadn't any resistanse against European diseases.
 
Agree with 2 - 6 but smallpox/some another devastating epidemic disease is not very ASB. Such things were going to evolve due high-level agriculture. In Americas hadn't such diseases so Natives hadn't any resistanse against European diseases.

And Europeans conquered most of the non-European world between 1500 and 1900. Disease helped some of their conquests but not all.

As for the USA, I would argue that by 1750 its destiny was becoming clear - the 13 colonies had far more people than any other colony or Native nation in North America.
 
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Deleted member 92121

The guy that wrote OTL can get lazy sometimes:

The Bronze Age collapse, with a globalized world with a set of powerful Empires collapsing in less then a century, with the addition of "Sea People"...Sounds like Deus Ex machina to me.

Alexander the Great was overpowered as hell.

Aristotles came up with far too much shit to be a realistic person.

The Spanish Empire collapsing because....they had too much gold.

Japan going from a Feudal society to a Industrialized military might in about 50 years is just bad writing.
 
A one-term congressman and failed U.S. Senate candidate becoming president of the United States as the candidate of an only then-emerging political party because the then-dominant party opted for an election strategy which had failed miserably in the past.
 
Some minor noble from a small island mostly know for being rebellious subject end up conquering much of Europe, ending a nearly millennial organisation and modernizing much of Europe.
 
Some minor noble from a small island mostly know for being rebellious subject end up conquering much of Europe, ending a nearly millennial organisation and modernizing much of Europe.

And after he is overthrown, he escapes and reconquers the country without a shot!
 
The guy that wrote OTL can get lazy sometimes:

The Bronze Age collapse, with a globalized world with a set of powerful Empires collapsing in less then a century, with the addition of "Sea People"...Sounds like Deus Ex machina to me.

Alexander the Great was overpowered as hell.

Aristotles came up with far too much shit to be a realistic person.

The Spanish Empire collapsing because....they had too much gold.

Japan going from a Feudal society to a Industrialized military might in about 50 years is just bad writing.
How about when the guy who wrote the OTL spends thousands of years writing about China, forgets about it, and then suddenly decided to cover his tracks by saying China came back because it grew by 12% per year for thirty years?
 
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