alternatehistory.com

Pt. #1
The Russian Front was the decisive theatre of WW2. If Germany won everywhere else, but lost on the Russian Front, then they lost the war. But 80% of the Wehrmacht was employed fighting the Soviets, so if they lost everywhere else, but they won on the Russian Front, then depending on when these events took place the Wehrmacht should have been able to shift forces to redeem their failures elsewhere, & win the war. Even after the US came in, if Germany had won on the Russian Front within 6 to 8 months afterward (roughly the time between the Jap attack on Pearl Harbor & the Torch invasion), then Germany should have been able to make Europe (& possibly N Africa) impregnable to invasion.
So how could this have come about? I propose that with just 1 change in strategy, Germany's victory on the Russian Front was virtually assured-- probably in '42.
On 18 Aug '41 the Army High Command (OKH) presented Hitler with its plan for the autumn campaign, which designated Moscow as the key objective. On 22 Aug, however, Hitler rejected the OKH plan & decided instead to strip Army Gp Center (AGC) of both of its 2 panzer armies, sending one to support AGN vs Leningrad & the other to support AGS vs Kiev. These new dispositions were in effect by 25 Aug. AGN arguably made no better progress with 2 panzer armies than it could have with only 1, but AGS won one of the largest encirclement battles of the war, took the city of Kiev, captured over 450,000 Soviet troops, & positioned itself for a thrust all the way to the Don River & the southern city of Rostov, which it captured before the end of the year (& then had to abandon during the winter).
Taking Gen. Guderian's 2d Panzer Army (2PzA) as an example, between 25 Aug & the beginning of Oct the 2PzA drove 300 miles to Kiev, 250 miles back to a position S of Orel & Bryansk, & spent perhaps another 250 miles in tactical manuvering-- 36 days of exhausting combat for the men, & at least 800 miles of wear & tear on the vehicles, not counting losses, injuries, & battle damage. The experience of Gen. Hoth's 3PzA with AGN was similar. These 2 Panzer Armies, worn down as they were, then spearheaded the attack on Moscow (assisted by Gen. Hoeppner's 4PzA from AGN).
On 25 Aug Moscow was located 200 miles ENE of the German salient at Smolensk. On 2 Oct Moscow was located 200 miles NNE of Orel & Bryansk, & the Wehrmacht was in position to begin Operation Typhoon, the campaign against Moscow. Within days the Wehrmacht captured the 3d, 13th, 19th, 20th, 24th, & 32d Soviet Armies, capturing over 670,000 prisoners & leaving only 90,000 men & 150 tanks available for the defense of Moscow. On 13 Oct, 12 days into the campaign, 3PzA penetrated within 90 miles of Moscow, having traversed 110 miles from its start-point. The doom of the Soviet Union appeared to have been sealed.
But on 18 Oct rain began turning the roads into a thick gumbo of mud in which trucks couldn't move unless they were towed by tanks. Aircraft couldn't take off except from paved runways-- but there were almost no paved runways. A plane could land in the mud only on its belly, or its landing gear would snag & cause it to crash. On 30 Oct, when the mud grew so thick even the tanks could hardly move, the offensive was halted on orders from Hitler. This respite in front of Moscow enabled Stalin to build fortifications & reinforce the units defending his capital with his Siberian reserves.
On 15 Nov the ground froze sufficiently to allow the Wehrmacht to resume its offensive. Three days later Stalin began his first tentative probing attacks, for the first time using his new T-34 tanks in large formations, & by the end of the month it was becoming obvious that Russia was in the beginnings of one of its worst winters on record. Despite all these disadvantages Wehrmacht troops still fought their way to within artillery range of the Kremlin by 2 Dec. In blizzard conditions the Battle of Moscow raged for 3 days before the incredibly severe weather & the withering away of his troops & equipment caused Hitler to order disengagement.
On 6 Dec Stalin launched his first winter offensive. The Wehrmacht hadn't prepared any fortifications for the winter, so the Germans suffered heavy losses while being driven halfway back to their starting positions. Raging with fury, Hitler purged his army that winter of over 100 senior generals.
During the entire war the Axis never came closer to victory than they did between 2 & 5 Dec 1941.
(more follows)
Top