Morroco Spain war

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Khanzeer, Jun 4, 2019.

  1. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    It's the mid 1970s , the Spanish are about to leave Western Sahara however bowing to the wishes of the International court of Justice they Support independence of Western Sahara rather than it joining Morocco

    In return Morocco attacks Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla

    How will such a war fare ? Both Spain and Morocco are allies of the US and are pretty well armed , will the Spanish be able to defeat Morocco militarily and liberate these cities?
     
  2. Gukpard hominem populist

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    I remember watching one of that ten minute long videos on youtube about the history of Spain in the twenty century. According to it the Morrocan government was not happy with Spain retaining Celta and Melila, so they launched a full blown offensive in the area and got crushed by the spanish army and the french foreign legion. If that is true then the northern front goes the same and the majority of the combat happens in the south.
     
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  3. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    Can u please send me the link of that Moroccan offensive against Spain ?
     
  4. Gukpard hominem populist

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    6:45
     
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  5. Kurt_Steiner That's a years supply!

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    If Morocco attacks Spain, Algeria is more than happy to stab Rabat in the back and the Polisario Front uses the chance to bring havoc all around while the Spanish Air Force crushes the Moroccan rival (which was outclassed) and Spanish bombs begin to fall all over the place. Chaos follows, the Morroccan monarchy falls and a whole new mess breaks up.

    However, Washington wouldn't like this a bit, so...
     
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  6. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    In naval and air strength Spain was superior to Morroco in the 70s?
     
  7. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Did Morocco have an aircraft carrier? I mean Spain's was tiny and old but it had one.
     
  8. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    so dusted off some old books and per 1978 records
    spain had 30 x F-4C + 20 mirage F1 and 30 mirage III + 50+ F-5A
    and morocco 25 mirage F1 and 40 F-5A

    but Morocco has only OPV and gunboats while spain had 1 x CV , 13 DD and 8 submarines

    so morocco's best bet is to try to overrun the enclaves quickly before the spanish can bring in reinforcements.They will have massive manpower superority

    moroccons can probably gain local air superority before spanish bring all their assets to bear against them
    and present the world with a fait accompli ?
     
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  9. Michele Well-Known Member

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    Maybe. However, this reminds me of the Falklands' fait accompli - with the difference that Ceuta and Melilla are a tad closer to Cadiz than Port Stanley to Liverpool, and that the Spanish government of the 1970 is one order of magnitude more nationalistic than Thatcher's.

    I will add that if the Moroccans only fight over African territory, including African air space, they are only fighting Spain. But if they make the mistake of attacking a Spanish naval or air unit in the Atlantic or the Med, then Spain can demand NATO/OTAN support under the Alliance's charter. No NATO/OTAN country would be happy to commit to a colonial war in Africa, but they would probably feel bound to side with Spain diplomatically and logistically. Moroccan ambassadors would be sent packing, Moroccan assets abroad would be frozen together with Moroccan trade, Spain would be supplied with all the ammo and armaments it might need, etc.
     
  10. Kurt_Steiner That's a years supply!

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    If Morocco moves before 1975, they are going to catch hell. If they do that year... it might go well for them for a time. If later than 1975, that may be interesting.

    Spain didn't join the NATO until 1982.
     
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  11. Michele Well-Known Member

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    Right. I thought we were talking about the mid-80s, not the mid-70s, even though it says that clearly in the OP. Sorry.
     
  12. PMN1 Member

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    Didn't someone write a story a while back on this?
     
  13. Kurt_Steiner That's a years supply!

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  14. Darzin Well-Known Member

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    I think Morocco would win, unlike the Falkand Islands, Morocco is right next to Ceuta and Melilla, they'll be able to seize the territories easily enough ad more importantly reinforce them I don't see how Spain can take them back after Morocco invades, I see this playing out closer to Goa then the Falkands.
     
  15. GorillaTheater Well-Known Member

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    The Spanish military was structured and trained to fight just this war (and probably still is, at least to a point), with significant amphibious lift not to mention much greater air and naval capabilities. They don't have to land at either Cueta or Melilla; Tangier or Tetuan would do just fine.
     
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  16. Kurt_Steiner That's a years supply!

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    Add the air superiority of the Spaniards to the issue. Morocco could be bombed back to the Stone Age.

    Furthermore, Algeria, as I pointed out before. They had supported the Polisario Front, as Alger was quite worried with the Moroccan expansionism that led to the Sand War. Morocco going to conquer Ceuta and Melilla? Mmmmm... I wonder what Boumédiène would think about it.
     
  17. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but so is Spain...

    I doubt even that much. The Moroccans were never able to over come Spanish garrison forces durring the Ifni War. The Spanish Legion isn't just going to over and die, so Spain absolutely can send reinforcements before the cities fall.
     
  18. Titanicus Very Well-Hated Member

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    Well, let's assume that in the scenario that Spain forces back the Morocan assault, what would they do afterwards?

    Would they continue to advance to take over all of Morocco and install a puppet government? Demand territorial concessions? Same for Morocco - if they're able to take the cities, what would Spain do? Let them have it? Invade Morocco?
     
  19. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    Is there
    I don't think miltariliy it is feasible for either parties to extend the area of operation
     
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  20. Ramontxo Believes San Mames is Heaven Donor

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    Wait for Argelia to occupy the rest of Morocco.
     
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