Moroccan Modernization

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Deleted member 67076

Is it plausible for Morocco to undergo its own form of "Meiji Reform" or Tanzimat and rapidly modernize in the 19th century? If possible, how strong could the Moroccan military and economy be? Could Morocco expand south and pres its claims in the interior?

As well, could Morocco get a Trans-Saharan Railroad linking up with the Sahel states/colonies toward the south?
 
It is possible, if the Moroccan sultans/kings manage to surmount the opposition of the ulema and successfully play off the great powers against each other. I can see Morocco attempting to modernize by copying the Prussian model of government/military (to counterbalance its greatest threat, which is France), though an equally likely scenario is that Morocco modernizes under French patronage.

A Sahelian expedition depends entirely on when the Moroccans modernize. Dakar was founded in the 1840s and by the 1850/1860s Senegal and Western Mali (through the fort at Medine) was under French influence, with the rest under the Toucouleur Empire. Any invasion of the Sahel after the 1870s (just as France was looking towards Africa for glory) would probably result in threats of war from the Third Republic.
 
I would stay its very difficult, if not impossible. Remember that Morocco was defeated by Spain of all people, the weakest of the European powers, in the 19th century. So if they tried to I imagine that Morocco's neighbors would smack them down.
 

Razgriz 2K9

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I would stay its very difficult, if not impossible. Remember that Morocco was defeated by Spain of all people, the weakest of the European powers, in the 19th century. So if they tried to I imagine that Morocco's neighbors would smack them down.

In the 19th century I for one think it is impossible. Spain and France will do whatever it can to prevent Morocco from "pulling a Meiji," lest it threatens the Spanish mainland and it's holdings in Northern Africa (and later, the Western Sahara) for the former, and Algeria (and later the French Maghreb) for the latter, yet at the same time, no one wants Morocco to be annexed, lest it sparks war between the Western European nations (read: Great Britain, France, Portugal and Spain)
 
I would stay its very difficult, if not impossible. Remember that Morocco was defeated by Spain of all people, the weakest of the European powers, in the 19th century. So if they tried to I imagine that Morocco's neighbors would smack them down.

What neighbors? Morocco is surrounded on three sides by wasteland and the only viable route of attack is from Algeria and they could well be an ally.

But yeah, the issue morrocco is that they are starting with a very tribal religious foundation and that modernization would take a severe setback from that.
 

Deleted member 67076

I would stay its very difficult, if not impossible. Remember that Morocco was defeated by Spain of all people, the weakest of the European powers, in the 19th century. So if they tried to I imagine that Morocco's neighbors would smack them down.
From what I hear, it took Spain alot of work to defeat Morocco. If they modernize, I think they can push out and defeat the Spanish. No idea on the French however.
In the 19th century I for one think it is impossible. Spain and France will do whatever it can to prevent Morocco from "pulling a Meiji," lest it threatens the Spanish mainland and it's holdings in Northern Africa (and later, the Western Sahara) for the former, and Algeria (and later the French Maghreb) for the latter, yet at the same time, no one wants Morocco to be annexed, lest it sparks war between the Western European nations (read: Great Britain, France, Portugal and Spain)

Well, what if someone else wants to prop up Morocco as a counterbalance to France and/or Spain?
 

Razgriz 2K9

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From what I hear, it took Spain alot of work to defeat Morocco. If they modernize, I think they can push out and defeat the Spanish. No idea on the French however.


Well, what if someone else wants to prop up Morocco as a counterbalance to France and/or Spain?

Firstly, it has been attempted before, first by Great Britain, then by Germany (the latter of which eventually wanted to establish it as a protectorate and led to the two Moroccan Crisis) but none of them panned out. Great Britain has a stronger shot at it, but at the time of 19th century, they were not in a position to care, splendid isolationism and all...
 
It is possible, if the Moroccan sultans/kings manage to surmount the opposition of the ulema and successfully play off the great powers against each other. I can see Morocco attempting to modernize by copying the Prussian model of government/military (to counterbalance its greatest threat, which is France), though an equally likely scenario is that Morocco modernizes under French patronage.

The problem is, France is there since the 1840s, and I don't see them thinking either is a good idea and allowing it.

soverihn said:
From what I hear, it took Spain alot of work to defeat Morocco. If they modernize, I think they can push out and defeat the Spanish. No idea on the French however.
Morocco =/= Rif tribes

Whenever it came to war with the Moroccan royal army, Spain wiped it out in weeks. Getting rid of unruly, heavily armed tribes entrenched in the African 'Alps' is an entirely different matter. And their very existence doesn't make Morocco any favors... the fact they existed at all shows that Morocco was a failed state with a shadow government in the 19th century. Only Persia had it worse in this period.
 
Morocco actually did undergo modernization under Moulay Hasan (r. 1873-1894), but as was typical of Egypt and Tunisia around the same time, the capital for these modernizing projects came from Europeans, who then called in the loans. This increased European influence in the country (imagine a 19th century IMF, really). His successor, Moulay Abd al-Aziz (r. 1894-1908) came to the throne at age fourteen, and proved weak as France gobbled up Morocco. So you'd need a different successor for starters, and a bit of haggling with European geopolitics.

The French were eager to take over Morocco, but it wasn't a sure thing. Avoid the Fashoda Incident. After Fashoda, Britain backed French domination of Morocco to ease tensions between the two. And the French eagerly took up the deal. In 1902, French recognized Italian interests in Libya in return for recognition of French interest in Morocco. Even after Fashoda, it took until 1904 for Britain to recognize Morocco as an area of French interest, in the Entente Cordiale. French then moved onto Spain, where they divided things up in October 1904. And then came German opposition. So have the Germans do a little better, not enough to take over, but enough to offset the French, and it's doable. The Fashoda Incident would have to go, to get Britain onside. Or possibly, you could go back into the 1890s and have the Germans back the Italian claim over Tunisia, which they were miffed about the French taking.
 
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The problem is, France is there since the 1840s, and I don't see them thinking either is a good idea and allowing it.

Well an alternate history where Spain actually threatens the UK's hold on Gibraltar, or a France that (foolishly) continues to press its claims after the Battle of Isly could provide the impetus for modernization spearheaded by the UK.

As for Germany... well... if they hadn't annoyed the UK so much they could have prevailed in the Morocco Crises, since France isn't about to have another repeat of the Franco-Prussian War without UK support. But then again, given that the Moroccan Crises were ways of 'testing' British resolve they might not have happened in such a timeline.
 

Deleted member 67076

Morocco =/= Rif tribes

Whenever it came to war with the Moroccan royal army, Spain wiped it out in weeks. Getting rid of unruly, heavily armed tribes entrenched in the African 'Alps' is an entirely different matter. And their very existence doesn't make Morocco any favors... the fact they existed at all shows that Morocco was a failed state with a shadow government in the 19th century. Only Persia had it worse in this period.
Damn. Any way to prevent the situation from deteriorating to that level or does that require a pre 1800s POD?

Morocco actually did undergo modernization under Moulay Hasan (r. 1873-1894), but as was typical of Egypt and Tunisia around the same time, the capital for these modernizing projects came from Europeans, who then called in the loans. This increased European influence in the country (imagine a 19th century IMF, really). His successor, Moulay Abd al-Aziz (r. 1894-1908) came to the throne at age fourteen, and proved weak as France gobbled up Morocco. So you'd need a different successor for starters, and a bit of haggling with European geopolitics.

The French were eager to take over Morocco, but it wasn't a sure thing. Avoid the Fashoda Incident. After Fashoda, Britain backed French domination of Morocco to ease tensions between the two. And the French eagerly took up the deal. In 1902, French recognized Italian interests in Libya in return for recognition of French interest in Morocco. Even after Fashoda, it took until 1904 for Britain to recognize Morocco as an area of French interest, in the Entente Cordiale. French then moved onto Spain, where they divided things up in October 1904. And then came German opposition. So have the Germans do a little better, not enough to take over, but enough to offset the French, and it's doable. The Fashoda Incident would have to go, to get Britain onside. Or possibly, you could go back into the 1890s and have the Germans back the Italian claim over Tunisia, which they were miffed about the French taking.
I see.

Well an alternate history where Spain actually threatens the UK's hold on Gibraltar, or a France that (foolishly) continues to press its claims after the Battle of Isly could provide the impetus for modernization spearheaded by the UK.

As for Germany... well... if they hadn't annoyed the UK so much they could have prevailed in the Morocco Crises, since France isn't about to have another repeat of the Franco-Prussian War without UK support. But then again, given that the Moroccan Crises were ways of 'testing' British resolve they might not have happened in such a timeline.
Would Morocco be enough to resist a much stronger Spain even with British investment and capital?

Hmmm, is the prospect of seeking help from the United States or an alternate Ottoman Empire (one that is much stronger and more industrial than OTL) an option?
 
Yep. You could potentially save Morocco with a POD after 1900. It just gets a lot harder, because France is on the prowl by then.

Hmmm, is the prospect of seeking help from the United States or an alternate Ottoman Empire (one that is much stronger and more industrial than OTL) an option?
You mean if the Ottoman Empire wins the Russo-Turkish War? If that happens, then Egypt probably goes back into the Ottoman sphere instead of falling into Britain's lap (IOTL the Ottomans were asked to intervene first, and Britain reluctantly occupied Egypt. It was supposed to be temporary. Remember, this was before the Berlin Conference. This is lumped together as part of the Scramble For Africa, but it's really much more nuanced.) In such a scenario, Tunisia and Morocco are going to be using the Ottomans to help them from Italian and French encroachment. It's quite possible that Algeria is the only European colony in North Africa if the Ottomans had beaten the Russians.
 
Damn. Any way to prevent the situation from deteriorating to that level or does that require a pre 1800s POD?

Well, with military modernization a determined-enough Sultan could/would wipe them out. Perhaps judicious use of African mercenaries as cannon fodder.

The key is also foreign support. Doubt Spain/France would attack if the UK was behind you.

Would Morocco be enough to resist a much stronger Spain even with British investment and capital?

Well if the Brits feel like they might lose Gibraltar, they would focus on Tangier so the Spanish still won't control access to the Med even if Gibraltar falls. That's where the protection from Spain comes from, not from the modernization of the Moroccan military/navy.

Hmmm, is the prospect of seeking help from the United States or an alternate Ottoman Empire (one that is much stronger and more industrial than OTL) an option?

The US will provide friendly support (the history with Morocco recognizing them early and all that) but can only help so much without being warned off by the Europeans. Ottoman Empire's also a bit too far away to project power, and if they can project said power they'd probably attempt to make Morocco a vassal like Tunis/Tripoli, which is bad (and in any case to reach Morocco they'd have to traverse the waters/land of France/Spain first).
 
There was an incident during the 1870s when the junta that was then ruling Spain managed to annoy both the UK and the USA simultaneously. IOTL that was settled peacefully, but let the junta be a bit more obnoxious and we could possibly see an Anglo-American alliance against Spain... in which case the UK and USA jointly guaranteeing Morrocan independence afterwards might be plausible.
 
There was an incident during the 1870s when the junta that was then ruling Spain managed to annoy both the UK and the USA simultaneously. IOTL that was settled peacefully, but let the junta be a bit more obnoxious and we could possibly see an Anglo-American alliance against Spain... in which case the UK and USA jointly guaranteeing Morrocan independence afterwards might be plausible.

Is this a different TL from our own? Because there was never a junta in Spain in the 1870s. At best the very short-lived Serrano government, which was short of a dictatorship but very authoritarian and gave way to the monarchy's restoration in 1874.
 
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