More Vietnam War

The Case-Church Amendment and War Powers Act made it tough for President Ford to support South Vietnam.

Suppose these restrictions included a few loopholes. One, if the Vietnam cease-fire was violated before 3 years the ink of the treaty dried, the president is capable of unilaterally supporting South Vietnam. Two, more raid is funneled down South Vietnam's throat (say 3.3 billion worth of equipment and ammo annually instead of 700 million but same amount of fuel aid as OTL). Three, Senate can give approval for an administration to give further action against anyone who violates a treaty co-signed by America.

North Vietnam started their Central Highlands offensive before the 3 years after the Paris agreement http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ban_Me_Thuot which is a pretty blatant violation of the cease-fire.

Under the loopholes, Ford can order America back into Vietnam. Since he wants to get re-elected, he will obviously NOT do that.

But this does create the possibility of offering B-52 bombing and Naval Gunfire support to help the South Vietnamese. North Vietnam in the past year created a network of roads, supply depots, and forest clearings for their armored vehicles and these were vulnerable to bombings unlike the smaller-capacity Ho Chi Minh trail (which was meant for hand porting not vehicle use is some sections). A carpet bombing on a few of these obviously visible trails would create a bunch of craters that prevent movement.

The speed of the Ban Me Thout offensive required vehicles. Sure the North Vietnamese could go into the jungle where American airpower can't hit them without spotters, but that screws up their timetable badly.

Also in OTL a problem the South Vietnamese had was logistics. The number of bombing sorties in Ban Me Thout was 1/30 of as many as they would have flown if decided by tactics instead of fuel. OTL one bomb hit a division HQ by accident and everything went downhill from there, but if that is butterflied away, more bombs dropped hopefully would hit enemies not allies. Artillery no longer had HEAT rounds, illuminating shells, or flares. Mortar shells were running out. LAW and TOW ammo were gone. The M-16 was a maintenance problem (something about needing cleaning oils or whatever) so much that many soldiers in 1974 bought M-14s and ammo rom Tailand or used captured AK-47s. Chinooks were badly needed for spare parts and was the most critical. Even unarmored trucks were in short supply of spare parts, meaning units were nailed close to their deployment zones.

I obviously don't think Ford would go for the full intervention. But Nixon gave his personal promise a violation of the cease-fire agreement would be met with "severe consequences" and TTL loopholes allow that.
 

RousseauX

Donor
If the Americans were serious about using airpower ala 1972 the 1975 offensive wouldn't have happened. The NVA launched the offensive -because- they the US did not respond to their initial attacks with airpower so they went for a big conventional offensive to push the South Vietnamese out of a large portion of their territory.

If the US was serious about deploying B-52s like in 1972 the NVA would have just continued the strategy of undermining the South vietnamese government in the countryside in smaller battles which doesn't create the same massed logistical/combat targets that US strategic bombers are good at hitting.
 
If the Americans were serious about using airpower ala 1972 the 1975 offensive wouldn't have happened. The NVA launched the offensive -because- they the US did not respond to their initial attacks with airpower so they went for a big conventional offensive to push the South Vietnamese out of a large portion of their territory.

If the US was serious about deploying B-52s like in 1972 the NVA would have just continued the strategy of undermining the South vietnamese government in the countryside in smaller battles which doesn't create the same massed logistical/combat targets that US strategic bombers are good at hitting.

If the Americans were serious yes. But OTL Case-Church and War Powers don't allow Ford to do anything even if he wanted to (and let's be honest boots on the ground is a no-starter even if he has a legal loophole). TTL gives a loophole and the biggest one being specifically the Paris Agreement being openly violated.
 
If the Americans were serious yes. But OTL Case-Church and War Powers don't allow Ford to do anything even if he wanted to (and let's be honest boots on the ground is a no-starter even if he has a legal loophole). TTL gives a loophole and the biggest one being specifically the Paris Agreement being openly violated.

SEATO was still in force, it was hoe Oz was able to send forces to South Vietnam and Thailand

Since Defense Treaties are considered law in the US, Ford could have intervened on that aspect.

Might have had impeachment over it, but he did have the right to intervene in 1975

also, a new Mining effort at Haiphong and Linebacker II type effort could have been done withing the timeframe listed by the War Powers Act
 
Since Defense Treaties are considered law in the US, Ford could have intervened on that aspect.

But War Powers comes after, so it supersedes the earlier law.

But enough about OTL. Do you think TTL Ford would try to stop the Ban Me Thout offensive? Would Senate react by restricting president powers more, or be OK he's punishing a flagrant violation of a treaty? Would NVA units be able to continue the offensive if they took their stuff into the cover of the jungle (where movement is... kind... of... slow) or would this give the ARVN enough time to regroup? How about the effect of ammunition and spare parts for them?

And the bombing might stop once Ford isn't prez anymore...
 
The biggest problem was Thieu ordering troops to abandon Plieku. That just destroyed what little was left of ARVN morale.
While Frederick the Great said than trying to defend everything, you defend nothing, sometimes you have to try to keep what land you have. This was one of those times

War Powers Act never had SCOTUS review, so it hitting on Senate approved Treaties and Presidential executive power, Court would have to decide, that would give Ford time.
Other than the Impeachment stuff, that is.

Even though the Democrats had the Majority, the Senate had more Conservative Ds than the House. Not sure they would vote to convict on bombing PAVN forces
 
No successful impeachment, but Ford is not nominated. The NVA doesn't come out into the open and they undermine South Vietnam more slowly and South Vietnam falls in the summer of 1976.

You could have fun with this for drama purposes. The good thing is Ambassador Martin, who failed to get many South Vietnamese out, would probably be replaced or have more time to see the writing on the wall.

The only stand up battle being the bloody siege of Saigon.
South Vietnam falling during American Bicentenial celebrations.

The plight of the R. of Vietnam Olympic Team who see's their country vanish during the games. Imagine if a South Vietnamese Athlete won a medal.
 
While Frederick the Great said than trying to defend everything, you defend nothing, sometimes you have to try to keep what land you have. This was one of those times

There was actually a semi-good reason for trying to hold everything. Lietendant General Phạm Văn Phú and many others thought Thieu chose to defend everything to please the Americans. Even at the end of the war, there was a hotline from ARVN corp commanders to an American station in contact with the US Navy. The (wrong) theory was that ARVN would hold out for a month or so against a conventional attack and make a show to the Americans that they were willing and capable allies. Then the all-powerful but somewhat ignorant Americans would support them.

Defending everything meant a strategic reserve of 3,500 infantry. This means that they need to make sure their intelligence knows where the NVA (or PAVN if you go by their official name but my American-centric book calls them the North Vietnamese Army) will attack because there is little mobility in a passive defense and with not enough Chinooks, redeployment is slow. Conceding land for a larger reserve or bigger passively defended outposts makes tactical/operational sense.

So many generals understood the military problem with trying to hold everything but thought Thieu had some political information since he was Vietnam's "expert" on American bureaucratic thinking. I half wonder if the only reason there wasn't a coup was due to South Vietnam's Congress, Cabinet, capital population, and military think that Thieu knows how the Americans think.

I somehow doubt Congress would authorize naval gunfire support and more military aid if they held out their positions for a month and made a good show. But given their understanding of their ally, this isn't an entirely unreasonable line of thought.

The biggest problem was Thieu ordering troops to abandon Plieku.

That decision cost 75% of the II corps and the morale of its survivors. They decided to use Route 7 to escape, which was unsuitable for large traffic even if the bridges were no destroyed three years ago or filled with debris. When asked to clear it, Phu claimed his military engineers could do it in 170 hours which was very optimistic. Thieu wanted to retreat from Pleiku, retake Ban Me Thout, and then retake Plieuku. But I don't think that's the biggest mistake, although it was the costliest. After Ban Me Thout fell, Plieku had four months worth of rations and 35 days of ammunition on a combat footing if not resupplied. With ground routes occupied and spare parts needed for helicopters, resupply is unlikely even though Plieku is still in range of Siagon.

No the real problem was Thieu micromanaging beforehand. Phu wanted additional reconnaissance brigades and was refused. Their intelligence network spat out a possible seven North Vietnamese targets, with Ban me Thout as the most probable, but Pleiku as a possibility. General Phu found Pleiku being shelled and decided his HQ there must be the target. Without Thieu's micromanagement of the II Corps and more coordination with the Joint General Staff, there is a significant likelihood that Phu would realize where the real strike is and he could prepare.

Even in OTL, the ARVN fought tough at Ban Me Thout until friendly fire bombed a division HQ there. Many of the North Vietnamese generals were apprehensive about the strike on Ban Me Thout beforehand as too aggressive and vulnerable to counterattack. After the war a lot of them thought if the division HQ wasn't bombed and either Phu organized a counterattack or the ARVN wasn't trying to conserve shells, the NVA would be repulsed and lose at least 1/8 of their manpower and most heavy equipment. Thankfully for them in OTL, the HQ WAS bombed and Phu didn't realize what was going on until 32 hours after the attack (he still though Pleiku was the target after his allies asked for help because Pleiku would be a bigger prize).

If the South wins at Ban Me Thout, there is no retreat rom Pleiku. Of course, the government is corrupt and vulnerable to subversion from bottom up, but that's another story.

War Powers Act never had SCOTUS review, so it hitting on Senate approved Treaties and Presidential executive power, Court would have to decide, that would give Ford time.
Other than the Impeachment stuff, that is.

A lot of legal scholars think OTL War Powers would have passed SCOTUS review at least by 6 votes if challenged at that time. And with TTL loopholes, there is no impeachment because North Vietnam violating the Paris agreement within 3 years... like the Phuoc Long and Ban Me Thout offensive did.

No successful impeachment, but Ford is not nominated. The NVA doesn't come out into the open and they undermine South Vietnam more slowly and South Vietnam falls in the summer of 1976.

Are you talking about Ford intervening by Treaty obligation with OTL War Powers, or Ford intervening by TTL War Powers? Either way, I see South Vietnam falling like that, but they might be able to negotiate a "peaceful" annexation.

The plight of the R. of Vietnam Olympic Team who see's their country vanish during the games. Imagine if a South Vietnamese Athlete won a medal.

This would make for a great story.
 
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