More post-WWI plebiscites

CaliGuy

Banned
What would the outcome of various additional post-WWI plebiscites have been had they been held?

As for my own thoughts on this, here goes:

-Alsace-Lorraine: Either most or all of Alsace-Lorraine votes for France. In the days of the German Empire, a large part of Alsatians voted for either secessionist or autonomist parties; this, combined with insults such as the Saverne Affair, would have probably secured a victory for France in Alsace-Lorraine.

-The Saarland (in 1920 rather than in 1935): The same result as in 1935--specifically an overwhelming victory for Germany due to the overwhelming ethnic German percentage of the total population there.

-Posen and the Polish Corridor: Since these areas were strongholds of the Polish Party in the days of the German Empire, Poland would probably win plebiscites there. However, it is possible that most of these territories vote for Poland while a strip of territory around Thorn/Torun (which had a large ethnic German population) votes for Germany.

-Danzig: An overwhelming victory for Germany due to the overwhelming ethnic German percentage of the total population there.

-The Memelland: I could certainly be wrong about this, but the Memelland doesn't strike me as being a hotbed of secessionism during the days of the German Empire. Thus, Germany probably wins a plebiscite there.

-Transylvania: The Hungarian-majority/Szekely-majority areas generally vote for Hungary and the Romanian-majority areas generally vote for Romania. I am unsure about the German-majority areas, though. Due to the ethnic geography of Transylvania, this would mean that Hungary would keep the Szekely Land along with a connecting strip while Romania would acquire the rest of Transylvania.

-Trentino and South Tyrol: The plebiscite results there would probably be more-or-less based on ethnic lines--with Austria winning German-majority South Tyrol while Italy wins Italian-majority Trentino. I am unsure as to who the small Ladin population in South Tyrol would vote for, though.

-Fiume: Italy wins due to Fiume's Italian-majority population. However, Yugoslavia will probably win a plebiscite in nearby Slovenian-majority areas.

-Austria and the Sudetenland: Germany wins due to the overwhelmingly ethnic German population of these areas. Indeed, back then, there was the widespread belief that Austria wouldn't be very viable as an independent state.

-Southern Slovakia (including Pressburg/Bratislava) and northern Vovjodina: Hungary wins due to the Hungarian-majority population of these areas.

-The Middle East: If the results of the King-Crane Commission are anything to go by, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and the peripheral areas of Lebanon would join up to create an independent Greater Syria. Meanwhile, the Christian-majority area around Mount Lebanon would probably become a separate independent rump Lebanon. As for Mesopotamia (Iraq), if the King-Crane Commission results are anything to go by, it would probably become a separate independent state (but probably without Kurdistan--which will become independent).

-Western Anatolia: Since there were more Turks than Greeks in western Anatolia--even in the parts of it with a lot of Greeks--Turkey would probably win a plebiscite throughout western Anatolia (even in areas such as Smyrna).

-Vilnius and western Ukraine and Belarus: Poland wins. Specifically, Poland wins in Vilnius due to the large ethnic Polish population there and wins in western Ukraine and Belarus due to the Bolsheviks being the only alternative there.

Anyway, exactly which territories--if any--am I forgetting to mention here?

Also, any thoughts on all of this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, it looks like I forgot these two territories:

-Eupen and Malmedy: Germany wins the German-majority areas while Belgium wins the Walloon-majority areas in Malmedy.

-South Schleswig: Overwhelming victory for Germany; this area was even more ethnically German than Central Schleswig (which overwhelmingly voted in favor of Germany) was.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Well, you would need the British to shift totally to the Wilsonian stance, which is ASB without changes in British politics. IOTL, Britain stayed between two factions, the US and France. Even then, plebiscites on A-L and Saar would be unacceptable for France.
 
The Alands would probably vote overwhelmingly to join Sweden (OTL there was a nonbinding referendum with something like 95% in favor of integration with Sweden)
 

Thomas1195

Banned
What about European part of Ottoman Empire? There were lots of Greeks there, but the Turks still had majority
 

Thomas1195

Banned
-Austria and the Sudetenland: Germany wins due to the overwhelmingly ethnic German population of these areas. Indeed, back then, there was the widespread belief that Austria wouldn't be very viable as an independent state.
Or Austria gains Sudetenland. With Sudetenland, they would be economically viable.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Or Austria gains Sudetenland. With Sudetenland, they would be economically viable.
Agreed; however, there would need to be some kind of road or something which spans the entire Sudetenland so that Austria can effectively administer it afterwards.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Agreed; however, there would need to be some kind of road or something which spans the entire Sudetenland so that Austria can effectively administer it afterwards.
Maybe just German Bohemia (the western areas, which borders Austria)

Also, what about a vote in Bavaria to get independence or to merge with Austria? Into a South German state.

But many of those votes you mentioned, especially Anschluss, would never happen without political changes postwar, especially in Britain, since France and Wilson already had clear stance.
 
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CaliGuy

Banned
Maybe just German Bohemia (the western areas, which borders Austria)

If so, then the rest of the Sudetenland should join Germany.

Also, what about a vote in Bavaria to get independence or to merge with Austria? Into a South German state.

German nationalism was too entrenched in Bavaria by 1919, though?

But many of those votes you mentioned, especially Anschluss, would never happen without political changes postwar, especially in Britain, since France and Wilson already had clear stance.

What about simply having WWI last longer and thus have the U.S. play a more prominent role in WWI, though?
 

NoMommsen

Donor
What would the outcome of various additional post-WWI plebiscites have been had they been held?
... putting aside the Quetzalcoatlus sized ASB needed for that number of plebiszites ...
-Posen and the Polish Corridor: Since these areas were strongholds of the Polish Party in the days of the German Empire, Poland would probably win plebiscites there. However, it is possible that most of these territories vote for Poland while a strip of territory around Thorn/Torun (which had a large ethnic German population) votes for Germany.
Keep in mind, that in the Upper Silesia plebiszite quite a number of rendered polish still voted for Germany (what made it such a close draw - for Germany). There was also a plebiszite in the southern, masurian parts of East-Prusiia (often forgotten) with an overwhelming vote for Germany, though about 1/3 to 1/2 IIRC (pls correct me if I'm wrong), in some parts even more were rendered polish people.
I would assume, that in Posen and even more in West-Prussia (corridor) such a plebiszite would have a come-out even better than in Upper Silesia.
-The Memelland: I could certainly be wrong about this, but the Memelland doesn't strike me as being a hotbed of secessionism during the days of the German Empire. Thus, Germany probably wins a plebiscite there.
IMO such a plebiszite would be a very clear victory for the german cause. Germans were the majority there and the Lithunians of that area were a ... special kind, more bound to "Prussia" and kinda german leaning after centuries of continious german influence.

-Western Anatolia: Since there were more Turks than Greeks in western Anatolia--even in the parts of it with a lot of Greeks--Turkey would probably win a plebiscite throughout western Anatolia (even in areas such as Smyrna).
What about European part of Ottoman Empire? There were lots of Greeks there, but the Turks still had majority
If the Turks were a majority (as I believe that the data shows), then Turkey would probably win a plebiscite there.
IMO would depend very much on how the plebiszite areas are cut.
There were regions with greek majority as well.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
... putting aside the Quetzalcoatlus sized ASB needed for that number of plebiszites ...

Such a large number of plebiscites would be true to Woodrow Wilson's vision of national self-determination, though. :)

Keep in mind, that in the Upper Silesia plebiszite quite a number of rendered polish still voted for Germany (what made it such a close draw - for Germany). There was also a plebiszite in the southern, masurian parts of East-Prusiia (often forgotten) with an overwhelming vote for Germany, though about 1/3 to 1/2 IIRC (pls correct me if I'm wrong), in some parts even more were rendered polish people.
I would assume, that in Posen and even more in West-Prussia (corridor) such a plebiszite would have a come-out even better than in Upper Silesia.IMO such a plebiszite would be a very clear victory for the german cause.

Actually, I am tempted to disagree with you in regards to this; after all, unlike in both southern East Prussia (Masuria) and in western Upper Silesia, the Polish Party won a lot of seats in both Posen Province and the Polish Corridor in various Reichstag elections (the map below is for the 1912 Reichstag election):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germa...a/File:Karte_der_Reichstagswahlen_1912_en.png

Thus, I suspect that Poland would have won a plebiscite in both Posen Province and the Polish Corridor. However, as I previously said, a strip of territory around Thorn/Torun might vote for Germany due to the large ethnic German percentage there.

Germans were the majority there and the Lithunians of that area were a ... special kind, more bound to "Prussia" and kinda german leaning after centuries of continious german influence.

Agreed; after all, weren't the Memelland Lithuanians Protestant?

IMO would depend very much on how the plebiszite areas are cut.
There were regions with greek majority as well.

If Greeks were a majority anywhere, then they might very well win a plebiscite there. However, based on the map here, it appears that no provinces of the Ottoman Empire had either a Greek-majority or a Greek-plurality population in 1914:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:...Asie_Mineure_statistique_officielle_d1914.png

Thus, unless there are some smaller areas with Greek majorities or pluralities, Greece is unlikely to win any plebiscites in these areas.
 
In Western Ukraine Poland would not win. The majority of Western Galicia was Ukrainian, while the city of L'viv was divided about three ways between Poles, Jews, and Ukrainians. IOTL The Jews were pro Ukrainian and I see no reason for that to change.

The ZUNR was a very viable alternative to the Bolsheviks and almost captured L'viv during the Chortkiv' offensive. Let's say that the plebiscite, which was supposed to happen anyways, goes through Ukraine (the ZUNR) will likely win and keep L'viv (Jews +Ukrainians) outnumbered the Poles. Poland might not accept the referendum. Peremyshyl will probably go Polish, though the rural area around it was certainly Ukrainian majority.
 
What would the outcome of various additional post-WWI plebiscites have been had they been held?

As for my own thoughts on this, here goes:

-Alsace-Lorraine: Either most or all of Alsace-Lorraine votes for France. In the days of the German Empire, a large part of Alsatians voted for either secessionist or autonomist parties; this, combined with insults such as the Saverne Affair, would have probably secured a victory for France in Alsace-Lorraine.

-The Saarland (in 1920 rather than in 1935): The same result as in 1935--specifically an overwhelming victory for Germany due to the overwhelming ethnic German percentage of the total population there.

-Posen and the Polish Corridor: Since these areas were strongholds of the Polish Party in the days of the German Empire, Poland would probably win plebiscites there. However, it is possible that most of these territories vote for Poland while a strip of territory around Thorn/Torun (which had a large ethnic German population) votes for Germany.

-Danzig: An overwhelming victory for Germany due to the overwhelming ethnic German percentage of the total population there.

-The Memelland: I could certainly be wrong about this, but the Memelland doesn't strike me as being a hotbed of secessionism during the days of the German Empire. Thus, Germany probably wins a plebiscite there.

-Transylvania: The Hungarian-majority/Szekely-majority areas generally vote for Hungary and the Romanian-majority areas generally vote for Romania. I am unsure about the German-majority areas, though. Due to the ethnic geography of Transylvania, this would mean that Hungary would keep the Szekely Land along with a connecting strip while Romania would acquire the rest of Transylvania.

-Trentino and South Tyrol: The plebiscite results there would probably be more-or-less based on ethnic lines--with Austria winning German-majority South Tyrol while Italy wins Italian-majority Trentino. I am unsure as to who the small Ladin population in South Tyrol would vote for, though.

-Fiume: Italy wins due to Fiume's Italian-majority population. However, Yugoslavia will probably win a plebiscite in nearby Slovenian-majority areas.

-Austria and the Sudetenland: Germany wins due to the overwhelmingly ethnic German population of these areas. Indeed, back then, there was the widespread belief that Austria wouldn't be very viable as an independent state.

-Southern Slovakia (including Pressburg/Bratislava) and northern Vovjodina: Hungary wins due to the Hungarian-majority population of these areas.

-The Middle East: If the results of the King-Crane Commission are anything to go by, Palestine, Jordan, Syria, and the peripheral areas of Lebanon would join up to create an independent Greater Syria. Meanwhile, the Christian-majority area around Mount Lebanon would probably become a separate independent rump Lebanon. As for Mesopotamia (Iraq), if the King-Crane Commission results are anything to go by, it would probably become a separate independent state (but probably without Kurdistan--which will become independent).

-Western Anatolia: Since there were more Turks than Greeks in western Anatolia--even in the parts of it with a lot of Greeks--Turkey would probably win a plebiscite throughout western Anatolia (even in areas such as Smyrna).

-Vilnius and western Ukraine and Belarus: Poland wins. Specifically, Poland wins in Vilnius due to the large ethnic Polish population there and wins in western Ukraine and Belarus due to the Bolsheviks being the only alternative there.

Anyway, exactly which territories--if any--am I forgetting to mention here?

Also, any thoughts on all of this?
Hungary. Slovak population in Kekes-Csaba is allowed plebiscit and join Czechoslovakia in Nargono Karabach style. :D
 
Italy gets even less of what was promised to enter the war, and probably becomes more fascist, if that's even possible.
 
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