Here's an idea for a timeline I have.
What if Nikolai I had not died and continued to oppose peace and Sweden and Austria had entered the war?
The French wanted to re-establish a Polish state out of Russia, Sweden wants Åland and perhaps also Finland, the Brits want the Russians out of "the Great Game" and not touching the Ottoman Empire, the Sardinia-Piedimontes wanted French support for their policies in Italy and will most likely align with any French wish to gain said support.
So, Nikolai refuses peace after the fall of Sebastopol and Austria and Sweden marches. Sweden has a substantial navy and is supported by French and British units in the Baltic. The French and British have already destroyed Bomarsund's Fortress in Åland. Swedish troops easily ockupy the islands, enthusiastically greeted by the locals (who are Swedish-speaking). Same thing when they land at Uleåborg and march south. Combined Swedish-French-British naval forces threaten Schlüsselburg (and in the extent, Saint Petersburg) and land forces to lay siege to Viborg, cutting off the meager Russian garrison in Finland.
The Austrians make good progress into Russian Poland, while the British are expanding into Georgia and laying siege to Odessa. Nikolai dies and his sone quickly brokers for peace.
Åland, Finland and Kexholm goes to Sweden - they are poor regions anyway, and since Russofication has not started, they still have Swedish laws and a large percentage speak Swedish.
The Kingdom of Poland is re-established. It is not very big, more like the Duchy of Warsaw before the last Polish partioning, but it gives Austria a desired buffer between themselves and Russia, and the French a loyal ally against possible Prussian expansion. A Habsburg is elected King to ensure Austrian cooperation in the scheme - they are worried about their own Poles in Galizia and their reaction to a Polish state (the 1848 revolts are not far away), but agree with a Habsburg ruler.
Britain is satisfied with the limitation on Russian expansion in Asia the treaty contains. The Russians are ousted from Persia and not allowed into Afghanistan anymore, both are considered British sphere of influence. The British are not too happy with increased French influence on the continent, but they are also worried about the increased Prussian influence and possible designs on Hannover, so they allow it.
So, what are the changes of this timeline?
Sweden is stronger with Finland. What will this mean for the Pan-Scandinavist movement, especially as Sweden is seen as a state with a successful army? Will Sweden lend more support to Denmark during the two Schleswig wars, and will Austria and Prussia be more likely to back down because of it? Austria might have friendly relations to Sweden since fighting on the same side in the Crimean War and the issues can perhaps be resolved diplomatically? If Sweden and Denmark joins in a Scandinavian state, will the Norweigans be as inclined to form their own state?
I can see Bismarck playing the revanschist feelings in Russia when the time comes to confront France. A Russo-Prussian alliance allows the Russians to swallow the Kingdom of Poland a mere 15 years after its forming - France, Austria and Poland on the same side loses the war and Germany forms. Bismarck still wants Austria on his side and extracts no indemnities or territory from the Austrians after the war, as in OTL. However, the Poles will likely see the Austrians in a better light after they fought for the Kingdom of Poland. Many Poles likely flee to Galizia - when the Polish Legion is formed later, it is going to be stronger, have a better moral fibre and a lot more recruits, and be seen as less of a threat by the Austrians.
How will ww1 look in this case? Can Bismarck maintain the Drekaiserbund despite even harder Russo-Austrian frictions? Scandinavia will likely be in tensions both with Russia, which has a Swedish-speaking minority in Estonia and over Finland, and with Germany over Schleswig. If the Norweigans stay in Scandinavia and these tensions remain, Scandinavia might align more with Britain and perhaps also a bit with France (historically, the alignment was more towards Britain by Norway, while Sweden and Denmark were more aligned towards Germany).
Will Wilhelm II alienate Russia and perhaps Scandinavia?
What if Nikolai I had not died and continued to oppose peace and Sweden and Austria had entered the war?
The French wanted to re-establish a Polish state out of Russia, Sweden wants Åland and perhaps also Finland, the Brits want the Russians out of "the Great Game" and not touching the Ottoman Empire, the Sardinia-Piedimontes wanted French support for their policies in Italy and will most likely align with any French wish to gain said support.
So, Nikolai refuses peace after the fall of Sebastopol and Austria and Sweden marches. Sweden has a substantial navy and is supported by French and British units in the Baltic. The French and British have already destroyed Bomarsund's Fortress in Åland. Swedish troops easily ockupy the islands, enthusiastically greeted by the locals (who are Swedish-speaking). Same thing when they land at Uleåborg and march south. Combined Swedish-French-British naval forces threaten Schlüsselburg (and in the extent, Saint Petersburg) and land forces to lay siege to Viborg, cutting off the meager Russian garrison in Finland.
The Austrians make good progress into Russian Poland, while the British are expanding into Georgia and laying siege to Odessa. Nikolai dies and his sone quickly brokers for peace.
Åland, Finland and Kexholm goes to Sweden - they are poor regions anyway, and since Russofication has not started, they still have Swedish laws and a large percentage speak Swedish.
The Kingdom of Poland is re-established. It is not very big, more like the Duchy of Warsaw before the last Polish partioning, but it gives Austria a desired buffer between themselves and Russia, and the French a loyal ally against possible Prussian expansion. A Habsburg is elected King to ensure Austrian cooperation in the scheme - they are worried about their own Poles in Galizia and their reaction to a Polish state (the 1848 revolts are not far away), but agree with a Habsburg ruler.
Britain is satisfied with the limitation on Russian expansion in Asia the treaty contains. The Russians are ousted from Persia and not allowed into Afghanistan anymore, both are considered British sphere of influence. The British are not too happy with increased French influence on the continent, but they are also worried about the increased Prussian influence and possible designs on Hannover, so they allow it.
So, what are the changes of this timeline?
Sweden is stronger with Finland. What will this mean for the Pan-Scandinavist movement, especially as Sweden is seen as a state with a successful army? Will Sweden lend more support to Denmark during the two Schleswig wars, and will Austria and Prussia be more likely to back down because of it? Austria might have friendly relations to Sweden since fighting on the same side in the Crimean War and the issues can perhaps be resolved diplomatically? If Sweden and Denmark joins in a Scandinavian state, will the Norweigans be as inclined to form their own state?
I can see Bismarck playing the revanschist feelings in Russia when the time comes to confront France. A Russo-Prussian alliance allows the Russians to swallow the Kingdom of Poland a mere 15 years after its forming - France, Austria and Poland on the same side loses the war and Germany forms. Bismarck still wants Austria on his side and extracts no indemnities or territory from the Austrians after the war, as in OTL. However, the Poles will likely see the Austrians in a better light after they fought for the Kingdom of Poland. Many Poles likely flee to Galizia - when the Polish Legion is formed later, it is going to be stronger, have a better moral fibre and a lot more recruits, and be seen as less of a threat by the Austrians.
How will ww1 look in this case? Can Bismarck maintain the Drekaiserbund despite even harder Russo-Austrian frictions? Scandinavia will likely be in tensions both with Russia, which has a Swedish-speaking minority in Estonia and over Finland, and with Germany over Schleswig. If the Norweigans stay in Scandinavia and these tensions remain, Scandinavia might align more with Britain and perhaps also a bit with France (historically, the alignment was more towards Britain by Norway, while Sweden and Denmark were more aligned towards Germany).
Will Wilhelm II alienate Russia and perhaps Scandinavia?
- the concern was very real and neutrality WAS seen as a means to calm the Tsar's views on succession, which not only applied to Holstein but by the Danish kings being duke of Holstein also to the Kingdom!