More Balkanized New Granada/Gran Colombia ?

Say, how were the odds of New Granada/Gran Colombia to break into more than 4 countries as IOTL ? I mean, it was initially just three, but then we got Panama. Or was the OTL case maximum ?
 
Say, how were the odds of New Granada/Gran Colombia to break into more than 4 countries as IOTL ? I mean, it was initially just three, but then we got Panama. Or was the OTL case maximum ?

No its not the maximum. 4 was pretty bad, but it is easier to get the original 3 (equador, colombia, venezuela) than to keep them together.

The area that became Venezuela was really chaotic for the first decades of its existence. There was really no government. It wouldn't be hard to see the provinces go off on their own, particularly if some European countries (or the US) intervenes. I could see Colombia being split in two, one centered in Bogota one in Cartagena.

The borders of all three can also easily be shifted.

The thing that mostly kept them united early on was the idea of a Gran-Colombia / United States of South America idea. So even if the provinces splintered in anarchy most tried to stay together. If you get a POD early in the wars of independence it should not be hard.
 
The area that became Venezuela was really chaotic for the first decades of its existence. There was really no government. It wouldn't be hard to see the provinces go off on their own, particularly if some European countries (or the US) intervenes.

How many countries at maximum can be carved out of Venezuela ? I don't think all the 12 provinces become a full fledged states. It seems that division along department borders would be more likely....
 
With a more federal system, it might have stabilized, but even so, in anarchy, it's highly unlikely that it'd split further than the four centers of power. And nobody gets the interior.
 
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