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On paper, the USSR was a two-tier system with 15 union republics/SSRs (Russia, Ukraine, etc.) and several autonomous republics with the SSRs (Chechnya, Dagestan, Tuva, etc.) How would Russia and the rest of Northern Eurasia be affected more post-Soviet countries emerged?

The main candidates, republics with a strong majority of their titular group and or relatively few Russians can be organized into 3 regions. Which are the most likely to become independent? By region, the republics are as follows

Caucasus:
Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia + South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kalmykia (Europe's only Buddhist nation)

Non-Caucasus
Tatatarstan, Baskhkortostan, Chuvashia, Tuva

russia_ethnic94.jpg
(Map Source: University of Texas map collection)
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