More Areas of the USSR Gain Independence

On paper, the USSR was a two-tier system with 15 union republics/SSRs (Russia, Ukraine, etc.) and several autonomous republics with the SSRs (Chechnya, Dagestan, Tuva, etc.) How would Russia and the rest of Northern Eurasia be affected more post-Soviet countries emerged?

The main candidates, republics with a strong majority of their titular group and or relatively few Russians can be organized into 3 regions. Which are the most likely to become independent? By region, the republics are as follows

Caucasus:
Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia + South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kalmykia (Europe's only Buddhist nation)

Non-Caucasus
Tatatarstan, Baskhkortostan, Chuvashia, Tuva

russia_ethnic94.jpg
(Map Source: University of Texas map collection)
 
I doubt any new countries would emerge that are completely encircled by Russia, but in any case the loss of even more territory would put Russia in quite possibly its weakest position ever: it would have even less manpower to draw on and even more economic assets lost. The global narrative may be somewhat more sympathetic to Russia in this case, perhaps leading to more Western aid and greater integration between Russia and NATO and the EU, especially since this disaster-scenario for Moscow would probably stop the CIS or CSTO emerging as functioning entities. A smaller rump Russia would also be much easier for Western institutions to "digest", since once again there are fewer people and less economic assets to integrate, meaning that fears of an EU tilted towards Russian interests may well be unfounded – Russia's population could well end up roughly equivalent to Germany's ITTL.
 
I think Tuva might be the most possible one. After all, they used to have their own country (a puppet one yes, but still a country) until 1944 when Stalin decided to annexed it. When he annexed Tuva, he somehow made it merely an autonomous oblast (later ASSR) instead of a full SSR. I don't know why but I suspect this had to do with Stalin's racism (if I'm not mistaken, he got to decide which titular nationality is "worthy" of SSR or not). Perhaps Stalin could change his mind and decided that Tuva is now "worthy" of SSR status.
 
Tuva would be easy one. Just make that SSR instead ASSR. And perhaps Chechny and Dagestan but you would need earlier POD and avoid expulsion of Chechens in 1944. Perhaps Crimea could be too but Crimean Tatars should too avoid expulsion. So at least you should stop rising of Stalin.
 
If you can get a Soviet Civil War most of those places you listed have a good chance at being independent.
 
Only a few of the republics within the Russian Federation are viable as independent states having non-Russian majorities, such as Tuva or Chechnya.
 
Only a few of the republics within the Russian Federation are viable as independent states having non-Russian majorities, such as Tuva or Chechnya.

And, more importantly, they are ones which are not completely surrounded by Russian territory.

One does wonder how viable they would be in the long-term, especially if a situation arises of Russian resurgence and an inability of other international actors to intervene to protect them. But it's not implausible.
 
Maybe, have Kaliningrad be turned into its own multiethnic SSR.

Perhaps in a TL where for whatever reason the Soviets weren't able to advance far enough to occupy any of metropolitan Germany, Stalin envisions E. Prussia/Kaliningrad as the "German communist state," and therefore keeps the preexisting population there as well as deporting Volga Germans there. Upon the collapse of the USSR, it gains independence as Prussia.
 
If you can get a Soviet Civil War most of those places you listed have a good chance at being independent.
If you can get a full Soviet civil war, chances are you will have an autonomous East Siberia as well as Vladivostok is something like the Texas of Greater Russia and constantly grumbles about Moskow being either too stalinist or not communist enough to spent THEIR hard-earned taxes.

Hell, in a full-out Russian civil war, even the oil fields around the Caspian sea could become an independent state because they find they have better things to do with their oil money than have Moskow decide what to spend it on.
 
I think Tuva might be the most possible one. After all, they used to have their own country (a puppet one yes, but still a country) until 1944 when Stalin decided to annexed it. When he annexed Tuva, he somehow made it merely an autonomous oblast (later ASSR) instead of a full SSR. I don't know why but I suspect this had to do with Stalin's racism (if I'm not mistaken, he got to decide which titular nationality is "worthy" of SSR or not). Perhaps Stalin could change his mind and decided that Tuva is now "worthy" of SSR status.
Tuva never had a sizable number of Russian settlers, so it could leave on relatively good terms with Moscow. I never got why why Stalin chose to annex Tuva, it could have been easier to keep it de jure independent but a de facto SSR like Mongolia was for much of the Cold War,
 
And, more importantly, they are ones which are not completely surrounded by Russian territory.

One does wonder how viable they would be in the long-term, especially if a situation arises of Russian resurgence and an inability of other international actors to intervene to protect them. But it's not implausible.
Tatarstan was technically independent for a few years. Is 1990 constitution which said it was a sovereign state was confirmed by a referendum in '92, and it was left in limbo until it signed a 1994 treaty giving it autonomy within Russia, but the treaty expired in 2017. An independent Tatarstan could become an Eurasian Lesotho on good terms with its neighbor, it's one of the wealthiest parts of Russia thanks to oil reserves and a heavy industrial base.

The Ural Republics like Tatarstan and Bashkortostan haven't had the same problems with terrorism and religious fundamentalism as the North Caucasus region. Chechnya is an economic basket case that depends on fiscal transfers from the Moscow, Putin is basically bribing them not to start another secessionist conflict. From a purely financial point of view Russia would benefit from Chechen independence, assuming it didn't become a base of operations for terrorist groups. During the '90s Taliban-ruled Afghanistan was the only country to recognize the Chechen separatists.
 
What could be a good POD? Gorby turning some ASSRs with relatively few Russians into SSRs as part of Perestroika?
This could work as POD, as well as changes during the Yeltsin era. Yeltsin's famous one-liner quote about autonomy issues to the minority regions was to "take as much sovereignty as you can swallow"

If the constitutional crisis in '93 turns into an extended conflict (the source of the famous photo of the parliament building on fire) or the communists defeat Yeltsin in '96 then a few of the republics may decide to leave what seems like a sinking ship.
 
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Only a few of the republics within the Russian Federation are viable as independent states having non-Russian majorities, such as Tuva or Chechnya.
Yeah, a lot of the minority republics are Russian-majority, the republics that I listed are the ones that actually have a majority of their titular nationality.
 
If the Northern Caucasus republics became independent in 1991, how different would the political situation be there today? May a war still happen somehow?
 
If the Northern Caucasus republics became independent in 1991, how different would the political situation be there today? May a war still happen somehow?
Very possibly. I think Dagestan would have a hard time holding together if it became independent as a unit, as its disparate groups are no longer united in being under Russia's thumb. There might be a war in Chechnya and/or Ingushetia over whether the state should have a secular or religious character. And, if North Ossetia Alania is free, is there an impetus in Ossetian areas of Georgia to join with it, or is Russia not manipulating things going to keep Georgia intact despite its new northern neighbors?
 
Maybe more SSRs are needed from the beginning. The integration of the Far Eastern Republic goes a bit differently and they are made an SSR, Karelia remains an SSR, Kaliningrad becomes a separate SSR, the Crimea becomes a separate SSR, the Volga Germans get an SSR of their own, Tuva becomes an SSR instead of an Oblast and, in some sort of an alternative Madagascar Plan, The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact includes a clause where German Jews are to be deported to that place in the Russian Far East that Stalin had designated as a Jewish ASSR, and that becomes an SSR of its own, as the Jewish population has now swelled.

All that, coupled with a much worse economic, political and social situation in the late 20th Century, mean that the breakup of the USSR goes far worse, with foreign powers and the UN intervening to secure nuclear arms, and the central government being completely unable to wage war or restore order to breakaway provinces. That way you might get an independent Chechnya, under different circumstances, and I don’t know what else.
 
Karakalpakstan has been suggested in threads like this before. In order for that to happen though you need either a weaker central government in Uzbekistan or some foreign sponsor ready to support the separatists.

In general, having more SSRs is probably the easiest way to get more states as that clears many barriers formed by international treaties and constitutional questions and generally makes things much more simpler as SSRs already have state apparatuses in place.
 
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