Thande said:
So an American victory at Bunker Hill might actually lose them the ARW?
Anything is possible. Even hear of Hannibal. He invaded Rome way back when. He won plenty of battles, but he lost the war. One victory can never guarantee a win in the long run.
Washington rarely had enough troops to go up against the British main army on a constant basis. The only time prior to Yorktown that I can remember hearing about a major battle with Washington in charge was Monmoth.
For the Colonists to hold off Clinton and Pigot, the generals who were directly involved with the attack, the Colonists wouldn't necessarily need thousands of rounds. 500 to a maximum of 1,000 rounds total would have been way more than enough, if you factor in that some shots will miss and others will end up hitting the same soldier every once in a while, either by good aim, or sheer dumb luck.
Technically the OTL battle could be considered more of a draw than a clear victory for either side. The British originally set out to drive the Colonists from their positions, which they did. While the Colonists had to retreat, they did manage, however, to kill over 200 British troops, and injure over 800 more, so in a way, both sides could claim victory.
If the Colonists have enough ammo to force the Brits back one more time, even if the Brits are successful, using the first two attempts as an example, they will probably take another 400-500 casualties, including another 100 or so dead. Now this will have some interesting consequences. In OTL, the British suffered 40% casualties. In this TL, they suffer around 60%. I'm not sure, but was one of the two British generals that Gage sent to fight injured. Pigot I believe? This leaves Gage with around 1,000 men that are still fit to fight that haven't been killed or injured, and another 1,500 to 2,000 in Boston that were not sent into the battle. There are also a few ships in the harbor at Boston. If Gage has a weeker force, and maybe even one of his generals dead or injured, Could the colonists decide to actually launch an offensive against Boston?