Moore kills Nixon

If Moore had Killed Ford, how would Rockefeller do as president and how would his presidency affect American politics?
 
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My brain suddenly pictured a twenty-year old Michael Moore in the autumn of 1974, after hearding Ford pardon Nixon, decide that justice hadn't been served and thus setting out to assassinate the ex-President. I was initially thinking "this is one of the lowest flame baits I have ever seen in my-..." and then I realized that the entire scenario had been constructed in my head and that I probably should check up what the thread was about before I passed judgement. :p
 
Rockefeller would certainly offer Reagan the vice presidency. If he accepts does he stay a loyal member of the team and not challenge Rockefeller for the Republican nomination?
 
This is an interesting scenario.

I actually don't see Rockefeller being a whole lot different from Ford as POTUS. I also think it makes a Rockefeller/Reagan matchup in '76 a whole lot less likely; if this had happened, the nation would have had 3 different Presidents over the span of just over 13 months. I'm not sure even the right of the GOP would have the appetite for even more instability. Moreover, had Rockefeller chosen to run (and I think under the circumstances he wouldn't have much of a choice if the alternative was Reagan), he would have had substantial personal resources to put into a campaign.

I think the main effect here might be the general election. Assume that Carter wins the Dem nomination as in OTL. The OTL '76 election was extremely close and Ford's pardon of Nixon had something to do with that. Rocky would have had to go right for Veep the same way Ford did to appease the conservatives, but wouldn't get the blame for the pardon. A good chance here that the voters, tired of a revolving door White House, stick with Rockefeller.

Here's where things get interesting. Rockefeller died of a heart attack OTL in January 1979. Presidential health care is pretty good. Perhaps his condition is discovered and he gets a bypass before the fatal heart attack? Or, alternatively, the stress of the office kills him earlier. I'll go with the latter, which gives us a new POTUS (Dole?) circa 1978. Either way, things were headed south economically starting around that time. That gives us a good chance that there is a Democrat elected in 1980, defeating whomever the GOP nominates. I think that while Reagan might at this point give the race a shot as it would be his last chance, an incumbent POTUS is going to be tough to beat in a primary. An unknown here is what's happening internationally. Are things with the USSR and Iran more or less as in OTL or different? My guess is that it's all more or less the same, though it's certainly conceivable that it could all be butterflied away by a somewhat more forceful Rockefeller posture toward the USSR and more support for the Shah. Either way, the economy still seems likely to be headed for the dumper. That, plus 12 years of the GOP, put the Democrats in a strong position.

The big question here is who do the Democrats nominate? I really don't know. The nation at this point would have been in turmoil for nearly 20 years. I'm not sure Ted Kennedy is the answer to that -- voters would be looking for stability and reassurance. Maybe he could rise to the occasion, maybe not. You might see some of the retreads of '76 try again -- it was a big field. My hunch, based on the Dem party of the era and the influence of large unions, is that Mondale might be where they turn, assuming he remained Carter's Veep pick in '76. A dark horse bet here might be Carter running again. There's no doubt he was ambitious, and he'd be one of the few Dems who'd really make the South competitive. Dems usually discard their losing candidates, but under such weird circumstances, who knows? If the '76 election was really close, his loss might be written off as a fluke of the times as voters sought stability by turning to Rocky.
 
Rockefeller would certainly offer Reagan the vice presidency. If he accepts does he stay a loyal member of the team and not challenge Rockefeller for the Republican nomination?

I don't buy that. In 1975, Reagan was still more or less a fringe figure. I think he goes right, but not so far right so as to cause worries for '76.
 
My brain suddenly pictured a twenty-year old Michael Moore in the autumn of 1974, after hearding Ford pardon Nixon, decide that justice hadn't been served and thus setting out to assassinate the ex-President. I was initially thinking "this is one of the lowest flame baits I have ever seen in my-..." and then I realized that the entire scenario had been constructed in my head and that I probably should check up what the thread was about before I passed judgement. :p

Someone should start that thread anyway XD
 

Flubber

Banned
I think the main effect here might be the general election. Assume that Carter wins the Dem nomination as in OTL.


I believe that would be a well founded assumption. The DNC completely overhauled their primary system between '72 and '76. Many of the primary candidates and their staffs didn't quite understand the new system while Carter and his group understood the system from the beginning and then managed to "hack" it to great effect. IIRC, Carter went from something like single digit name recognition to the putative nominee in just a few months thanks to his mastery of the new primary system.

The OTL '76 election was extremely close and Ford's pardon of Nixon had something to do with that.

Again, agreed. I've read more than once that another weekend of campaigning may have seen Ford pass Carter. Carter's general election campaign wasn't as polished as his effort in the primaries.

Here's where things get interesting. Rockefeller died of a heart attack OTL in January 1979. Presidential health care is pretty good. Perhaps his condition is discovered and he gets a bypass before the fatal heart attack? Or, alternatively, the stress of the office kills him earlier.

I think you could go either way.

Not to put too fine a point on it but the 70 year old Rockefeller had his heart attack while engaging in certain activities with his private secretary, a 25 year old woman, at a townhouse he owned. As we've seen with presidents ranging from Wilson to FDR to JFK to Clinton, President Rockefeller would have more help, more cover, and more opportunity to engage in certain activities with certain secretaries more often.

His heart condition may be detected earlier and corrected or he may die in the saddle much earlier. All of which makes his choice of VP rather important.
 
I believe that would be a well founded assumption. The DNC completely overhauled their primary system between '72 and '76. Many of the primary candidates and their staffs didn't quite understand the new system while Carter and his group understood the system from the beginning and then managed to "hack" it to great effect. IIRC, Carter went from something like single digit name recognition to the putative nominee in just a few months thanks to his mastery of the new primary system.



Again, agreed. I've read more than once that another weekend of campaigning may have seen Ford pass Carter. Carter's general election campaign wasn't as polished as his effort in the primaries.



I think you could go either way.

Not to put too fine a point on it but the 70 year old Rockefeller had his heart attack while engaging in certain activities with his private secretary, a 25 year old woman, at a townhouse he owned. As we've seen with presidents ranging from Wilson to FDR to JFK to Clinton, President Rockefeller would have more help, more cover, and more opportunity to engage in certain activities with certain secretaries more often.

His heart condition may be detected earlier and corrected or he may die in the saddle much earlier. All of which makes his choice of VP rather important.

Two things.

First, the '76 primary system was actually quite similar to '72. Carter followed the McGovern framework in seeking the nomination. The Dem rules were changed in '70/'71 by the McGovern-Frasier Commission. Still, though, you're right: Carter had a better grasp of the new process than the other candidates and it had a huge impact on his winning the nomination. For one thing, he was the only one to see the potential in the Iowa caucuses.

Second point -- upon reflection -- is that if Rockefeller doesn't die in office, chances are he's not running in '80. Someone who's past 70 and who's had a bypass is probably not going to run, especially if the economy's in the tank. For the same reasons that Rockefeller would have benefitted in '76 from Ford's death, whomever was Rocky's Veep would have had a leg up on the nomination and Reagan's stock would have been diminished. But in any case, the GOP faces an uphill climb in '80.

In any case, it really makes for a fascinating sequence of events. If you overlay another assassination on top of what was already a troubled period, it starts to make the '70s a time when people looked back at the late '60s with some measure of nostalgia. 1978 could wind up as a real nightmare: another dead POTUS, the Moscone/Milk assassinations and the Jonestown mass suicide. The latter two might be butterflied away, but then again, they may not be. 1979 could even be worse as a new POTUS grapples with a bad economy, Iran and the USSR in Afghanistan. Maybe this belongs in the dystopic '70s thread?

It also makes one appreciate Ford a bit more, IMO. His tenure in office may have been brief, but it was a very important time when the political system was given a much-needed shot of sanity and stability. His death would have really shaken the nation at a time when it very nearly came close to coming unglued.
 
If Rockefeller wins his own term in 1976, it would have to be as head of a Rockefeller Reagan ticket. That would be the best way to gain conservative support. There would be many conservative staying at home or casting protest votes. I think that the Rockefeller Carter match up would inspire a right wing third party candidate stronger than OTL's Lester Maddox. Maybe winning over those put off by the Nixon pardon would make up for the conservative detections. Particularly as Rocky's record would allow him to cut into the Democratic base. Once in office, the big question is the president's health. Of course, if he has a heart attack while schtooping a 25 year old,Secret Service agents who know CPR are in the next room. I think though in this scenario, you have taken a guy with a heart condition and massively increased his stress levels. So I do see him dying in office leaving President Reagan to deal with the hostage crisis and the 1980 recession. Of course, Reagan is the key player ITTL.If he runs against Rockefeller in 1976 primaries he easily wins.

Mcz
 

FDW

Banned
Two things.

First, the '76 primary system was actually quite similar to '72. Carter followed the McGovern framework in seeking the nomination. The Dem rules were changed in '70/'71 by the McGovern-Frasier Commission. Still, though, you're right: Carter had a better grasp of the new process than the other candidates and it had a huge impact on his winning the nomination. For one thing, he was the only one to see the potential in the Iowa caucuses.

Second point -- upon reflection -- is that if Rockefeller doesn't die in office, chances are he's not running in '80. Someone who's past 70 and who's had a bypass is probably not going to run, especially if the economy's in the tank. For the same reasons that Rockefeller would have benefitted in '76 from Ford's death, whomever was Rocky's Veep would have had a leg up on the nomination and Reagan's stock would have been diminished. But in any case, the GOP faces an uphill climb in '80.

In any case, it really makes for a fascinating sequence of events. If you overlay another assassination on top of what was already a troubled period, it starts to make the '70s a time when people looked back at the late '60s with some measure of nostalgia. 1978 could wind up as a real nightmare: another dead POTUS, the Moscone/Milk assassinations and the Jonestown mass suicide. The latter two might be butterflied away, but then again, they may not be. 1979 could even be worse as a new POTUS grapples with a bad economy, Iran and the USSR in Afghanistan. Maybe this belongs in the dystopic '70s thread?

It also makes one appreciate Ford a bit more, IMO. His tenure in office may have been brief, but it was a very important time when the political system was given a much-needed shot of sanity and stability. His death would have really shaken the nation at a time when it very nearly came close to coming unglued.

The Jonestown suicides might still end up happening, but the Moscone/Milk assassinations would most likely be butterflied away.
 
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