Montezuma defeats Cortez, now what?

[Electric Earth]

If he's smart he takes a long look at the technologically advanced people he has vanquished. He would show his wisest advisors the winged canoes that are propelled by the winds, the black powder that activates the fire sticks, those surviving four-legged beasts upon those backs they rode. He would recruit the surviving conquistadores (but kill Cortez and that traitorous puta who assisted him) Then maybe do away with human sacrifices. (It is no coincidence that Mexico is the home of all those monarch butterflies!) Could Montezuma have brought this off?

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

Disease ravages the empire, creates conditions for a civil war. When the next Spanish expedition arrives they back one side of the civil war, and ride the wave of civil violence and disease-ravaged chaos to victory, then overthrow the winning Emperor and impose Spanish rule.

 

[trolleyfan]

If he's smart he takes a long look at the technologically advanced people he has vanquished. He would show his wisest advisors the winged canoes that are propelled by the winds, the black powder that activates the fire sticks, those surviving four-legged beasts upon those backs they rode. He would recruit the surviving conquistadores (but kill Cortez and that traitorous puta who assisted him) Then maybe do away with human sacrifices. (It is no coincidence that Mexico is the home of all those monarch butterflies!) Could Montezuma have brought this off?

Probably not. For one thing, if he won, why would he even think he needed to change anything? I mean, it worked, didn't it? He won!

For another, I strongly suspect that a lot of what you're proposing he simply can't do. If he tries to change the culture too much, he'll simply get...replaced...by the more conservative powers in the empire.

And as an aside, if he kills of Malinche, how's he going to talk to those impressed Conquistadors?

 

[DominusNovus]

And really, Cortez would be a much more useful ally than many of the Conquistadors. From what I've read, he was one of the fairer and more honorable of the group.

 

[MerryPrankster]

If he wins but takes absurd casualties in the process, it might occur to him that the Spanairds' weapons and tactics might be useful things to learn, particulalry if some Spanaird shoots off at the mouth about how more Spanairds will come along and avenge them.

 

[Atom]

If he's smart he takes a long look at the technologically advanced people he has vanquished. He would show his wisest advisors the winged canoes that are propelled by the winds, the black powder that activates the fire sticks, those surviving four-legged beasts upon those backs they rode. He would recruit the surviving conquistadores (but kill Cortez and that traitorous puta who assisted him) Then maybe do away with human sacrifices. (It is no coincidence that Mexico is the home of all those monarch butterflies!) Could Montezuma have brought this off?

Trolleyfan saind it quite well:

Probably not. For one thing, if he won, why would he even think he needed to change anything? I mean, it worked, didn't it? He won!

For another, I strongly suspect that a lot of what you're proposing he simply can't do. If he tries to change the culture too much, he'll simply get...replaced...by the more conservative powers in the empire.

And as an aside, if he kills of Malinche, how's he going to talk to those impressed Conquistadors?

Disease ravages the empire, creates conditions for a civil war. When the next Spanish expedition arrives they back one side of the civil war, and ride the wave of civil violence and disease-ravaged chaos to victory, then overthrow the winning Emperor and impose Spanish rule.

Depends on wether Moctezuma dies or not. And succesion rules for the Aztecs are quite murky. It is possible he was elected, in which case civil war might be averted, or by inheritance, or by a combination of those factors. And I'm even sure wether cortez had smallpox with him. Any one know?

If he wins but takes absurd casualties in the process, it might occur to him that the Spanairds' weapons and tactics might be useful things to learn, particulalry if some Spanaird shoots off at the mouth about how more Spanairds will come along and avenge them.

well, Spanish tactics and weapons are not generally aplicable for the Aztecs. They lack horses and i doubt they could figure out how to use them in time, guns are not capable of being made, they have a different view of war (capture>kill) and communication is likely to be a problem. And we have to remember that Cortez only won a full fight with 10,000 Tlaxcala. And why would Spain go after them fast? Sure they lost a couple men, but he wasn't really mean to leave or liked, so why bother? I think they have a few years.

The easiest way for this to happen is for the Tlaxcala not to ally with Cortez.

 

[Tocomocho]

Well, before discussing anything you must explain what's the situation. How did Moctezuma "defeat" Cortés? In OTL he never declared war on him! Are you asking what if he did right after the Spanish arrived? What if Moctezuma survived the Noche Triste but Cortés didn't, maybe? What if Moctezuma survived and remained in control of the Aztecs and later crushed the Spanish at Otumba? There are several possible scenarios with dozens of possible PODs, consequences and probabilities. You should read first about how did the conquest of Mexico happened and then elaborate a POD. Otherwise this discussion is sterile.

By the way, smallpox didn't arrive with Cortés, but with Narváez. And I don't think it would lead to any type of civil war, because a) the Aztec monarchy was elective, not hereditary like the Inca and b) the Aztecs would join against any rebel tribe.

 

[Matthais Corvinus]

I think that it is fair to say that the diseases that the Europeans brought with them were enough to destroy entire American civilizations with no concerted military efforts from the Europeans, witness: Mississippi Culture. The death rates were higher than the Black Plague in Europe, estimates range anywhere from 50 to 90 % of the population died off. That kind of die-off creates social chaos like we can't imagine, and it would include attempts by the Aztec's vassals cities to throw off their overlords. These rebellions would be the chance that the next band of Spaniards will use to bring about Spanish rule in Mesoamerica.