Mongols up against a stronger Chinese dynasty

Fenestella

Banned
Southern Song was weaker than pretty much every dynasty having control over China Proper militarily, yet still managed to hold off the Mongols for decades and kill one Khagan.

If the Mongols were up against a stronger Chinese dynasty, would they still manage to conquer China? How many more decades and dead Khans would it take?
 
Any of Han, Tang, and Northern Song at its peak
If Ghenghis fought the Tang Dynasty at it's peak,the Mongols will be a distraction,but nothing more than that.The Tang Dynasty had good cavalry owing to their ownership of horse producing regions and a highly martial society.The Northern Song Dynasty,even at it's peak had none of these.
 
Well one of the main reasons that did the Southern Song in was the heavily factionalized bureaucracy that frequently prevented decisive action and encouraged short-term thinking, as seen OTL in the foreign policy disasters the dynasty suffered during this period. The factional system started to take root during Song Zhenzong's reign, so I doubt a stronger Northern Song would have had better success against the Mongols. The same would probably hold for the Ming Dynasty.

As for Han and Tang... if they were truly at their height then the Mongols probably wouldn't have gotten going in the first place. But even assuming the Mongols remain independent of those dynasties, both Han and Tang armies had extensive experience operating beyond the Gobi Desert, which would remove one of the major strategic advantages of the early Mongol Empire (i.e. being able to retreat beyond the range of Jin armies). Same with the Qing Dynasty.

Still, I suppose one should also make allowances for the talents of the Genghis Khan, Subutai and other military figures in the Mongol Empire...
 
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A POD after Genghis Khan's birth that nonetheless produces a China equivalent in strength to the Han, Ming, or even Northern Song dynasties at their peak would have to be so incredible as to be implausible. It would require either the Jurchen Jin to conquer all of China in an implausibly short time frame (essentially impossible) or for the Song Dynasty to make major institutional changes and regain most of the north (unlikely in most ways).

But the key phrase is "Any of Han, Tang, and Northern Song at its peak." On the other hand, if a figure equivalent to Genghis Khan arose during the early years of the Han or Tang Dynasties, as the head of the Xiongnu or Tujue nomads, then China could find itself in a difficult situation. The Xiongnu nearly captured the Han Emperor in 200 BCE. The Tujue nearly reached Chang'an in 626 CE. Had a figure similar to Genghis been in power during those critical years, the newly founded Han and Tang empires could have been defeated in their formative years. However, the Han eventually learned how to survive the Xiongnu, and the Tang gained the upper hand over the Tujue soon afterwards, and kept their northern border secure.

But the Northern Song would not pose much of a threat to an alternate Genghis. The first few Jurchen rulers who ended the Northern Song were formidable leaders, but they were not Genghis's equals. If they were, Southern Song would not have survived.
 
But the key phrase is "Any of Han, Tang, and Northern Song at its peak." On the other hand, if a figure equivalent to Genghis Khan arose during the early years of the Han or Tang Dynasties, as the head of the Xiongnu or Tujue nomads, then China could find itself in a difficult situation. The Xiongnu nearly captured the Han Emperor in 200 BCE. The Tujue nearly reached Chang'an in 626 CE. Had a figure similar to Genghis been in power during those critical years, the newly founded Han and Tang empires could have been defeated in their formative years. However, the Han eventually learned how to survive the Xiongnu, and the Tang gained the upper hand over the Tujue soon afterwards, and kept their northern border secure.

But the Northern Song would not pose much of a threat to an alternate Genghis. The first few Jurchen rulers who ended the Northern Song were formidable leaders, but they were not Genghis's equals. If they were, Southern Song would not have survived.
The early years of Han were hardly Han at it's peak.Same deal with Tang.The peak of both dynasties were during the early years of Emperor Wu and the later days of Taizong's reign.Even Ghenghis couldn't do much in those circumstances as the Chinese would have large cavalry units,much more hawkish,possess much more competent military officers,not to mention have tremendous resources at their disposal.
 
Mongols without the chinese enginners cannot really harm the chinese at their peak too much at all. They probably can cause some border problems but thats it.
 
The early years of Han were hardly Han at it's peak.Same deal with Tang.The peak of both dynasties were during the early years of Emperor Wu and the later days of Taizong's reign.Even Ghenghis couldn't do much in those circumstances as the Chinese would have large cavalry units,much more hawkish,possess much more competent military officers,not to mention have tremendous resources at their disposal.
That's what I mentioned. A Genghis during the early days of Han and Tang could do a lot more damage than a Genghis during their peak.

I personally feel that Tang's golden age was during Xuanzong's Kaiyuan era in terms of prosperity, because Taizong's Tang had border issues that weren't resolved until Gaozong.
 
The Mongols would probably invade Central Asia first before returning, and maybe Persia too.

That doesn't change the fact that they aren't going to conquer China. OTL it was already super difficult and took a lot more troops than the Middle East campaigns. ITTL, it's neigh impossible, especially with a stronger Song.
 
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