Mongol Golden Horde Survives

Maybe I should have allowed the Lithuanians to make their incursions into Russia during the Orda-Timur War in Persia?!

Perhaps I should send Toqtaqiya or Timur-Malik of the White Horde deal with Jogaila's army?
 
Maybe I should have allowed the Lithuanians to make their incursions into Russia during the Orda-Timur War in Persia?!

Perhaps I should send Toqtaqiya or Timur-Malik of the White Horde deal with Jogaila's army?
This would be more likely, but not to Novgorod, since one of his brothers or cousins would be the prince of Novgorod.
 
This would be more likely, but not to Novgorod, since one of his brothers or cousins would be the prince of Novgorod.

The reason the Lithuanians entered Novgorod was at the invitation of its rulers, whom desired liberation from the Golden Horde. And perhaps from there, Novgorod would have acted as a beachead for the inavsion of all Russia.
 
The reason the Lithuanians entered Novgorod was at the invitation of its rulers, whom desired liberation from the Golden Horde. And perhaps from there, Novgorod would have acted as a beachead for the inavsion of all Russia.
Still this don't look very likely. Novgorod would be under Lithuanian control (but not direct) from your POD at least. In OTL, when Novgorodians invited Simon Ivanovich (Ivan Kalita's son) to become the prince of Novgorod, Algirdas started war and the peace of 1348 restored Lithuanian influence in Novgorod. In your TL there were no such war, more likely, since Ivan Kalita was executed and influence of Moscow would't be strong enough to gain strong support. And Lithuanians in many cases didn't challenge nominal suzerainty of Golden Horde in the lands they gained in the East, (e.g. in Kiev in the first half of 14 century were both Lithuanian prince and baskaque, if this is corect spelling).
 
This being the expansionist era of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, maybe there could be other pretexts for invading Golden Horde territory. Jogaila was a Catholic convert, so to gain further favour with the Church, and to stop the attacks by the Teutonic Order, Jogaila could offer to invade Russian lands in a crusade to gain converts for the Catholic Church.
 
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This being the expansionist era of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, maybe there could be other pretextes for invading Golden Horde territory. Jogaila was a Catholic convert, so to gain further favour with the Church, and to stop the attacks by the Teutonic Order, Jogaila could offer to ivade Russian lands in a crusade to gain converts for the Catholic Church.
Yes, this is very possible that they would make some incursion, but it would be more likely some border dispute with Moscow, which while weakened still would be strong enough and IMO the princes of Moscow would try to restore the lost power, or would intervene in conflict among Rusian princes as in 1368 - 1372, when Algirdas supported Tver against Moscow.
 
In the wider world:

Would the remaining Sultanate of Rum survive subjugation by the Ottomans if they managed to capture Syria in the wake of the downfall of the Il Khanate?

Iran is divided primarily by the Golden Horde controlling the north-west, the Jalayirids in the south, and the Arab-descended Muzzaffarids in the east. I don't expect the Golden Horde to retain their Persian dominions in the long-run, but which dynasty should reunify Iran ITTL?

Or should the Mamluk Sultanate of Cairo gain Syria, and enjoy the close support of the Golden Horde while they still remain in control of northern Persia?

Given the earlier weakening of the Muscovite state, European Russia becomes all but disputed by the Golden Horde and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. How would this affect the culture of Russia, being beset by Catholic Lithuanians, Polish, and Germans from the west, and Muslim Mongol-Kypchaks in the east. Would they see the Lithuanians and the Teutonic and Livonian Orders as their potential liberators, or would they see the best chance of the survival of the Russian Orthodox Church would be by siding with their Tatar overlords?
 
Given the earlier weakening of the Muscovite state, European Russia becomes all but disputed by the Golden Horde and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. How would this affect the culture of Russia, being beset by Catholic Lithuanians, Polish, and Germans from the west, and Muslim Mongol-Kypchaks in the east. Would they see the Lithuanians and the Teutonic and Livonian Orders as their potential liberators, or would they see the best chance of the survival of the Russian Orthodox Church would be by siding with their Tatar overlords?
As for the Grand Duchy of Lithuania the change in power centres in the East would change the direction of its expansion towards the North. Podol, Kiev would remain under control of Golden Horde, but Novgorod would be much more dominated by Lithuanians. This also may mean that Jogaila would be less atractive to Poles as the husband for their queen.
 
1387 C.E.
After seven years of conflict, Abu Orda Khan of the Golden Horde signs a treaty with the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and the Teutonic and Livonian Orders, allowing them to remain in control of Novgorod. The German Military Orders build outposts in Novgorodian territory. Abu Orda fathers his firstborn son, Mohammed Qutlugh.

1388 C.E.
Tokhtamysh, the Basqaq of Tehran, believing himself to be ignored by his Khan, declares his independents from the overlordship of Abu Orda Khan, and adopts the title of Emir of Tehran. He allies himself with the Arabo-Persian Muzzaffarids against the Jalayirids of the south. Meanwhile, knights of the Teutonic and Livonian Orders launch raids into Muscovy and Vladimir-Suzdal. Toqtaqiyah is ordered to counter the raiding by attacking the military bases in Novgorod.

1389 C.E.
Abu Orda leads an army of 62,000 into northern Iran to punish the sedition of Tokhtamysh. His second son, Ogedei Bakr, is born in the spring.

Abu Orda punishes the forces of Tokhtamysh at Hamadan, Rasht, Chalus, Zanjin, and Qazvin.

The border raids of Muscovy by the Teutonic and Livonian Orders becomes a full-on conflict when the forces of Grand Duke Jogaila become involved on the side of the Germanic orders.

1390 C.E.
Tehran is besieged by the forces of Abu Orda Khan. It ends after three weeks when the Khan's soldiers storm the city, and slaughter a great deal of the civilian populace along with the rebel troops. Tokhtamysh escapes with around fifty of his followers, and flees to the territory of the Muzzaffarids. But upon encountering a patrol, they are mistaken for bandits, and Tokhtamysh is killed fatally wounded by the Persians. The Emir of the Muzzaffarids makes overtures of peace to the Golden Horde.
 
Golden Horde Timeline

1375 C.E.
Having forced the re-unification of the warring factions of the former Chagatai Khanate, Timur the Lame invades the Khwarezm and Transoxiana regions of the Golden Horde's territory. The Vizier Qasim Beg appoints the generals Mamai and Tokhtamysh to combat the new threat. The Golden Horde would lose the cities of Kabul, Tashkent, and Samarkand.

1376 C.E.
Qasim Beg makes peace with Timur. And officially cedes the remaining Transoxianan territory to Timur, whom inflicted heavy losses against the forces of Mamai and Tokhtamysh. The Khan Abu Orda is but fourteen years of age.

1380 C.E.
The Khan Abu Orda is now eighteen, and makes a military pact with Timur the Lame, whom has by now forced the Muzzaffarids of central-easten Perisa to accept his overlordship. The Golden Horde's Jalayirid vassals in southern Persia wage a short-lived rebellion which is crushed inside of four-months. Abu Orda was present in the punitive campaign. Rebellions in Khwarezm and Astrakhan are crushed also.

1380 C.E.
Grand Duke Jogaila of Lithuania, after forging a military pact with the Germanic Teutonic and Livonian Orders, invades Novgorod, with the intention of "liberating the Rus" and converting them to the true Catholic faith. Timur-Malik and Toqtaqiyah of the White Horde are commanded by Abu Orda Khan to combat the incursion.

1381 C.E.
The Blue Horde General Mamai rebels against the Khan Abu Orda, and seizes control of Azerbaijan and the northern regions of Iran. He also allies himself with Husain II (OTL Husain I). Abu Orda, along with Tokhtamysh, leads a force of 75,000 to punish Mamai's insurgency.

1382 C.E.
Azerbaijan is reconquered by the forces of Abu Orda.

1383 C.E.
Abu Orda Khan successfully recaptures the Iranian cities of Tabriz and Maragha, before persuing the forces of Mamai to Tehran. In desperation, Mamai offers his alliegence to Timur in return for military intervention. Timur and Abu Orda negotiate over the ceding of Tehran back to the Golden Horde, while Mamai and his supporters may freely depart to Timur's realm. But Timur does not wish to relinquish Tehran. Both sides are at war before the year is out.

1384 C.E.
The Golden Horde's assualt against Tehran fails, and they pull back to Maragha during the spring. Abu Orda, however, successfully defends the lands around Maragha. They infect the water supply in every settlement by dropping dead sheep in the wells, and cutting off the water supply to all the major cities, including Maragha and Tabriz. Thousands of civilians leave northern Iran for either Baghdad or the Jalayirid lands. At Dorood, in Lorestan in June of that year, the Golden Horde forces, numbering 56,000, trounce the forces of Timur, whom were suffering from starvation and thirst. The night prior to the battle, Abu Orda sent Tokhtamysh with 4,000 to quietly depart, and hide in the hills, as Timurs troops slaked their thirst and that of their horses. Tokhtamysh would lead his warriors to ride up to the camp, and hurl torches at the tents, and killed some of the more wearied soldiers, and fled before Timur could bring the full brunt of his 70,000 strong army on them. The day of the Battle of Dorood, Abu Orda deployed 2,000 archers to hide on the wooded slopes overlooking the field in wait for Timur's Chagatai army. As the majority attacked the troops of the Golden Horde, composed of Tatar and Kypchak cavalry, alongside Turkic, Armenian, and native Persian infantry, the hidden archers ran to the cliff and loosed their arrows on the heads of the Chagatai soldiers. Hundreds of Timur's elite cavalry climed up the slopes, got off their saddles, and went in persuit of the archers. But Tokhtamysh led 1200 horsemen to gallop around the rear of the Chagatai army before charging at the 1800 strong retinue of Timur. This action caught Timur off guard, but he along with his men fought like a demon, before Abu Orda led another 700 to assist in the attack with Tokhtamysh. Just as Timur was about to call for his troops to disengage from the fight, a Tatar lance pierced the side of his mount, sending Timur sprawling to the ground. About six thousand foot soldiers of the Chagatai army ran to combat the enemy horsemen attacking their overlord, but Timurs persoanl guard were all but slain. Many among the remaining Chagatai, thinking Timur was done for, either fled or attempted to surrender. Timur was taken alive. And the remaining Chagatai forces in northern Iran were hunted down and eliminated. Abu Orda offered Timur life in return for peace and territorial concessions, but instead, feeling deeply shamed by his defeat, Timur demanded his own death. Abu Orda granted Timur his wish.

1385 C.E.
Abu Orda recaptures the Iranian territory around Tehran. He appoints Tokhtamysh as the Basqaq of Tehran. The Chagatai Khanate falls into disorder once again.
Abu Orda leads his forces to assist the White Horde forces of Toqtaqiyah against the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in Novgorod.

I thought I would change the last ten years of this Timeline by interjecting the Lithuanian invasion earlier than I did. The year 1380 was when Jogaila concluded the Treat of Dovydiskes with the Teutonic Order. I thought that I'd make an extra condition to invade Golden Horde jurisdiction.
 
I thought I would change the last ten years of this Timeline by interjecting the Lithuanian invasion earlier than I did. The year 1380 was when Jogaila concluded the Treat of Dovydiskes with the Teutonic Order. I thought that I'd make an extra condition to invade Golden Horde jurisdiction.
In your TL the Treaty of Dovydiškės may be batterflied away or be unlike IOTL. It was caused by need to have free hands to deal with rebelous brothers that were backed by Moscow.

1380 C.E.
Grand Duke Jogaila of Lithuania, after forging a military pact with the Germanic Teutonic and Livonian Orders, invades Novgorod, with the intention of "liberating the Rus" and converting them to the true Catholic faith. Timur-Malik and Toqtaqiyah of the White Horde are commanded by Abu Orda Khan to combat the incursion.
So did Jogaila's convertion take place earler?
 
In your TL the Treaty of Dovydiškės may be batterflied away or be unlike IOTL. It was caused by need to have free hands to deal with rebelous brothers that were backed by Moscow.

So did Jogaila's convertion take place earler?


Woops, I fucked up again :(.

I figured that with the Treaty of Dovydiskes, that Jogaila himself had been baptized earlier. In any case, he must have desired to get the Teutonic Knights from attacking his subjects. So the nature of the treaty in this timeline would be somewhat altered. Perhaps under the different circumstances, he may well have converted earlier.

If Jogaila's uncle Kestutis lacks sufficient support from Russia for their rebellion, than who is he going to turn to? Kestutis was a Lithuanian Polytheist, so I don't think he'd be compelled to make side-deals with the Golden Horde. Perhaps Hungary might be called upon by Kestutis to help him wrest power off his nephew, if Kestutis was willing to throw away his beliefs and accept baptism by the Hungarians, then later abandon his new religion once his ploy was successful?!
 
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Woops, I fucked up again :(.
Maybe this may help a bit http://viduramziu.istorija.net/en/ .
I figured that with the Treaty of Dovydiskes, that Jogaila himself had been baptized earlier. In any case, he must have desired to get the Teutonic Knights from attacking his subjects. So the nature of the treaty in this timeline would be somewhat altered. Perhaps under the different circumstances, he may well have converted earlier.
If Jogaila's uncle Kestutis lacks sufficient support from Russia for their rebellion, than who is he going to turn to? Kestutis was a Lithuanian Polytheist, so I don't think he'd be compelled to make side-deals with the Golden Horde. Perhaps Hungary might be called upon by Kestutis to help him wrest power off his nephew, if Kestutis was willing to throw away his beliefs and accept baptism by the Hungarians, then later abandon his new religion once his ploy was successful?!
Kęstutis wasn't one that rebeled, actually his actions took place when he got revealed on the Treaty of Dovydiškės (by the Teutonic knights themselves BTW), which was kept secret from him and not without reasons. Before that he fully supported Jogaila. Rebels that Jogaila needed to fight were Jogaila's elder brothers (they were actually half brothers, Jogaila's mother was second wife of Algirdas) Andrey, prince of Polock, Dimitry, prince of Briansk, Vladimir, prince of Kiev. Andrey fled to Moscow and got full support here, also was supported by Livonian branch of the Teutonic knights.
 
I reckon that I might have to go back to the drawing board with all this. Every time I write an advance of events for the timeline, I keep forgetting little scraps of information on contemporary nations of the Golden Horde. I only started this to see if people would be interested enough to propose scenarios, but then I got sort of obsessed with the idea. I guess I'm just more focussed on the internal development of the Tatars than on their neighbours. Thanks anyway though.
 
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