Mondale 84 best case scenario

The first POD comes on November 4. 1979. The takeover of the US Embassy in Teheran is delayed for one week. November 4, 1980, is not day 365 of the hostage crisis. The hostage crisis gets less attention. Ronald Reagan beats Jimmy Carter 47% to 45%. The Democrats win most of the 9 Republican Senate candidates who won by less that 4% of the vote. Surely Liz Holtzman wins. OTL she lost by 1.4%. She becomes the leading feminist politician. She is Mondale's running mate. Unlike Ferraro, he does not have a husband, so she does not have a husband with embarrassing financial problems. She does not make a remark about Italian men. The second POD is that October 2, 1984, news breaks about illegal arms sails to Iran. On October 5, 1984, Reagan addresses the nation and insists that there was no deal to ransom hostages. His statement has little credibility. On October 7th, 1984, Reagan's debate performance in the domestic policy debate is very weak. During the foreign policy debate on October 21st, the discussion of the Iran arms sale distracts from Reagan's clever line about his opponent's youth and inexperience. On Election Day Reagan defeats Mondale 50% to 49%. Mondale carries Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii and to Reagan's great embarrassment California. The electoral vote was Reagan 317 and Mondale 221.
 
How to make Mondale win 1984:
  • No Volcker or other PoD to keep economy in the crapper on Election Day. If it's 'Morning in America' Mondale can't win.
  • have him pick a different running mate, gary Hart could be a good choice.
  • Run a better campaign, appeal to Reagan Democrats. Definitely don't say "I will raise your taxes."
  • Debates go worse for Reagan and Reagan comes off as unfit for a second term. Health issues should be thrown into the mix, otherwise Reagan's hopeful image will likely carry the day as long as the fundamentals aren't as bad as Carter's or Hoover's.
  • Something else may also be needed, though if you're daring try with the first four ingredients.
Mondale wins by a 2% margin.
 
His alzermeirs is obvious during the debates with Mondale,

Obvious in retrospect but at the time it was played off as an off-night and Reagan's second debate performance was much, much stronger (the 'I won't make light of my opponent's youth & inexperience' or whatever it was), which all but erased the doubts coming out of that horrific first debate performance.

So...

Without changing the economic dynamics, which could seriously cripple Reagan (he was looking like a one-term president until '83 and the economic boom), I'd say:

1) Mondale doesn't go for the Hail Mary with his pick of Geraldine Ferraro. She was a competent pick in terms of experience, but almost all the good buzz was thrown out the window with her husband's tax issues. In the end, she hurt the ticket way more than she helped - despite the historic ramifications of it. Mondale seemed dead-set on choosing a minority or a woman, so, maybe he picks Kentucky governor Martha Layne Collins instead.

2) As mentioned above, Mondale doesn't tell the American people he'll raise their taxes in his convention speech. As honest as it was, it was a disaster and only solidified the position he was a typical tax and spend liberal.

3) There's only one debate - maybe Reagan, knowing he's going to win, agreed to just one...who knows? Either way, the first debate is the only debate and the ramifications are damaging. Reagan doesn't fully recover, but it's hard to envision him blowing THAT big of a lead, so, he wins by ten or so points - not 18 nationally.

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Walter Mondale (D-MN) / Martha Layne Collins (D-KY): 44.3% PV, 142 EV
Ronald Reagan (R-CA) / George H.W. Bush (R-TX): 55.2% PV, 396 EV
 
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