Monarchy Coup

I'm just wondering...

Suppose elements of a hypothetical 1800s European Kingdom tries to overthrow the monarchy in a kingdom where succession has recently been not so stable. The current line is a series of unbroken successions (king to son, to grandson, to great-grandson...) but multiple pretenders had to be fought off or paid off.

Obviously the POD needs to be 3 decades or more before the events. Like a 1850 coup probably needs a 1820 or earlier POD.

A group tries to form a republic by coup. The current monarch is slightly unpopular in the cities, but most of the population is in fact rural. The coup is leading officers in charge of three different large military formations.

On the day of the coup, each coup group marches into a key center of power. One marches into the capital, one marches into a large city of historical importance (so... I guess in France Rouen might be one since Paris is the capital) and another seizes a large city on a river that is also a large base that holds the peacetime standing army.

Their loyalists officers disable most but not all of the artillery and spike the rest. They are soon forced to flee on horseback, since most men obey their commanding officer, who are traitors.

Most of the rank and file are not in on the coup. Among the military as a whole, 22% are loyalists, 3% are traitors, and 75%... want a paycheck. Not calling them cowards and they'll in fact risk their lives or die in a war or suppressing a rebellion so that their families get rewarded, but they aren't strongly attached to the republican elements or the crown. The nation or money is more appealing than either for this group.

The three highest ranking generals are loyalists and are killed off by the coup colonels.

The capital was previously having an anti-monarch riot. In the capital 50% are pro-republican, 10% are neutral, and 40% are loyalists. The monarch didn't do much about the riot besides locking the gates, but he hears about the coup and some of the crowd starts making suicidal attempts to get in with ladders after they hear a revolution is underway.

The country as a whole consists of 30% loyalists, 10% republicans, and 60% neutrals (ok, maybe some have feelings for the crown, but they aren't putting their lives or property on the line for the crown, so they aren't effective loyalists).

The rest of the army units are in groups of 1,000 or less, aside from 3,000 guards of the crown which are defiantly loyal. The regular units scattered over the country are a mix of loyalists, would be traitors (they sympathize with the coup but weren't in on the plan), and neutrals, with no one knowing who is who. The three formations the coup leaders control are each over 5,000 each and are made of traitors and neutrals. These formations represent 30% of the army.

In the scattered army units that are 1,000 or less, loyalists officers order the artillery to be disabled, on the logic that if their unit goes rogue, they can't use them, a contingency the monarch ordered a few years ago when his intelligence service thought a coup might happen. Soon the only usable artillery in the nation are a dozen pieces held by the 3 rogue formations (oops...), fortification artillery (the not so movable kind), and the naval artillery.

The crown ordered the treasury to be packed and the royal family to leave by sea to a rural island he knows only has loyalists, since the navy is known to be loyal. He decides he'll try to organize a comeback once he figures out who the heck is loyal.

Since the only division sized units are controlled by the coup members (rest of the army is in groups of 1,000 or less), the capital (although not the treasury) is in their hands, and the loyalist elements of the army don't know who can be trusted, this is a problem for the loyalists.

Given these problems, did the monarch give his surviving commanders a fatal blow by moving himself away from the continent? The loyalists no longer have any gathering point.
 
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