Monarchist China

[Tyr]

A bit of a challenge here. With a 20th century POD is there anyway we can save the Chinese monarchy/get a stable replacement dynasty?
It really seems the 20th century is too late, some small efforts were made but things were already going to hell.
Future new Chinese monarchies like Manchukuko and that general turned emperor were built on unstable foundations which were unlikely to last.

Note this requires an actual emperor or king. Not one in all but name.

 

[LeX]

It's not too late IMO. Have CiXi get bitchslapped and get put back in her place (maybe the Boxer Rebellion gets even worse?), and you might get the emperor restored. Then if the emperor (I think it was Guangxu, idk) knows what's good for him, he'll introduce an actual parliament and try to copy Japan's ways as much as possible. Would be even better if some powerful military man (see: Yuan Shikai) would stay loyal to him and kick the ass of anyone who disagreed.

 

[Thon Taddeo]

A bit of a challenge here. With a 20th century POD is there anyway we can save the Chinese monarchy/get a stable replacement dynasty?
It really seems the 20th century is too late, some small efforts were made but things were already going to hell.
Future new Chinese monarchies like Manchukuko and that general turned emperor were built on unstable foundations which were unlikely to last.

Note this requires an actual emperor or king. Not one in all but name.

I'd suggest checking out the Superpower Empire timeline: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=5223

 

[mcdo]

It's not too late IMO. Have CiXi get bitchslapped and get put back in her place (maybe the Boxer Rebellion gets even worse?), and you might get the emperor restored. Then if the emperor (I think it was Guangxu, idk) knows what's good for him, he'll introduce an actual parliament and try to copy Japan's ways as much as possible. Would be even better if some powerful military man (see: Yuan Shikai) would stay loyal to him and kick the ass of anyone who disagreed.

I agree with this. ^^

Part of what made "pulling a Meiji" work in Japan that, I think, is too often overlooked was the "having a respected figurehead" bit. The Meiji "Restoration" was, of course, a radical overthrow of most of the government system. The oligarchs could crush the power of the samurai class (eventually), and buy off the old feudal lords. But it was more difficult to win the support of the people at large to such a program of radical change. The Emperor was therefore very useful, to provide a veneer of not just legitimacy, but also tradition, to what the genrou did.
After all, if anybody felt nervous about the adoption of Western dress by government ministers, or the establishment of a Diet, they could at least take comfort in the idea that it was all part of "a search for knowledge throughout the world would follow in order to strengthen the foundation of imperial rule." (or however that goes...)

A monarchy could be useful in (Qing Empire) China for the same reason. Get the reigning monarch to abdicate after the Boxer Rebellion. They are replaced with a "clean slate" monarch, about whom not much is known. Everything bad that went before could be blamed on the Empress Dowager, and not on the institution of the monarchy per se. Public discomfort at reforms and modernization is muted somewhat. Any politician or general who tries to seize local power or resists the reforms can be tarred with the brush of anti-monarchism/disloyalty (and possibly themselves painted as anti-tradition). Everybody's happy.

All you need is:
1.) A suitable (read: malleable) new monarch
2.) A group of Chinese politicians who are both willing and able to become the power behind the throne, and keep it
3.) For those same politicians to be able enough to guide China through the needed reforms, while at the same time being astute enough to use the monarch for good PR
4.) For all this to fall into place right after the Boxers are crushed. Any earlier, and you might not get your chance. Any later, and the public disgust with the current monarch allows republicanism too strong a foothold amongst the intelligentsia.

My two cents, anyway.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

I don't think China "pulling a Meiji" is necessary for this. Cambodia still has a king, it didn't pull a Meiji. You don't need a modernised, superpower China, just need the institution of the Emperor retained.

 

[EternalCynic]

I don't think China "pulling a Meiji" is necessary for this. Cambodia still has a king, it didn't pull a Meiji. You don't need a modernised, superpower China, just need the institution of the Emperor retained.

But in the the final years of the Qing Dynasty, it was already pulling a slow-motion Meiji (since the old guard had been discredited, yet political and economic reforms could not be rolled out easily). The frequent rebellions were explicitly anti-Qing in character and most were pro-republican. Cambodia is not comparable, since the monarchy was a figurehead of the French, and hence resentment was anti-French rather than anti-monarchy. Unless the monarchy could deliver China out of its deep crisis (either by reformed Qing or a new dynasty), it would implode into a warlord era. By the time China is reunited, it would be under a republic.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

I wasn't using Cambodia as a direct comparison, I'm just saying that in Asia, republicanism isn't necessarily necessary, since the prevailing opinions on AH.com seem to be that big monarchies can't exist unless they're really successful (like the UK) and that they'll otherwise become republics inevitably.

 

[Simon]

Song Jiaoren manages to avoid being assassinated and is elected as Prime Minister in the first democratic Chinese elections. He seems to of been pretty honest/non-corrupt, fairly democratic - for the time period, and was very much against a powerful dictatorial President. This leads to him butting heads with Yuan Shika and in the ensuing competition he manages to beat and remove him from office. Fearing the rise of another power hungry megalomaniac to the office of President, and as a sop to his political allies who were conservatives, he re-institutes the Emperor but in a firmly ceremonial position as a constitutional monarchy.

 

[EternalCynic]

Song Jiaoren manages to avoid being assassinated and is elected as Prime Minister in the first democratic Chinese elections. He seems to of been pretty honest/non-corrupt, fairly democratic - for the time period, and was very much against a powerful dictatorial President. This leads to him butting heads with Yuan Shika and in the ensuing competition he manages to beat and remove him from office. Fearing the rise of another power hungry megalomaniac to the office of President, and as a sop to his political allies who were conservatives, he re-institutes the Emperor but in a firmly ceremonial position as a constitutional monarchy.

I'm guessing Yuan Shikai experiences an unfortunate tragedy, yes?

 

[Simon]

That or he makes his move as in our timeline and Song Jiaoren, who since everyone and his brother seems to of suspected Yuan Shikai of being behind the assassination is prepared for any funny business, manages to lead the government in quickly squashing him. At that point the choices are get rid of the position of President altogether - but then you run into the problem of the power just moving to the Prine Minister, electing a new one with much reduced powers or instituting a constitutional monarchy as a replacement. Or as you say he has a tragically fatal accident or heart attack.

 

[King Helü of Wu]

Cixi and other conservative manchu aristocrats was choked to death during a feast, then Guangxu took over, smashed the boxers, and went on with his reforms.

And Kang Youwei, after all the ups and downs, became more realistic and cautious this time.

In effect, we have Cixi's New Policies one year earlier, carried out by a much more prestigious leadership due to the lack of boxer war and war reparations.

Still, without Russian land grab in 1901 Boxer Protocle which the Chinese deemed as a betrayal, China remained anti-Japan and pro-Russia, and thus it's officer corp was trained in St Petersburg other than Tokyo.

Without all the Chinese officers radicalized in Japan's military academies, we will have a officer corp not so enthusiastic about their killing own fellow Chinese in the warlord wars, and they will defend the Great Emperor faithfully.

bingo.
=========================== this line separates my fantasy and cruel reality ===========================

Let's face it, the reformers and the revolutionaries of that era thought that China was one country, and whatever failures, miseries and humiliations the country encountered must be blamed on the leadership, namely the Manchus.

But China was NOT one country. It was a fact that the Sino-Japanese War 1895 and Boxer war 1900 should have revealed. It was a loose federation of traditional minded local governors who obeyed Beijing only when it suits their own interest. THAT was the cause of China's weaknesses and it's warlordism after the revolution.

I wanted to say "Just remove Cixi and some Manchu Princes", but even if Guangxu took over, the policies would still be similar to the New Policies of 1901-1913, which was proven a slippery slope to an inevitable revolution.

 

[King Helü of Wu]

If have a 1800 PoD, that should be more realistic.

 

[LeX]

That is a good point. The Qing was at its height in the late 1700s, for the whole of the 1800s they just kept losing power. Half of China was taken over by pseudo-Christians of all people, for example, and it took 20 million lives and a similar number of years to put an end to that. By 1900 there was probably no way China could really hope to stay together without lots of blood and fighting. I think it's possible for a dynastic system to arise, but it needs lots of military support and maybe it can't be Manchu. Perhaps the Russians would support it, with Sun Yat-sen backed by the Japanese, so we would have an Imperial and Republican faction, and somehow the imperial faction wins out.

I agree with this. ^^

Part of what made "pulling a Meiji" work in Japan that, I think, is too often overlooked was the "having a respected figurehead" bit. The Meiji "Restoration" was, of course, a radical overthrow of most of the government system. The oligarchs could crush the power of the samurai class (eventually), and buy off the old feudal lords. But it was more difficult to win the support of the people at large to such a program of radical change. The Emperor was therefore very useful, to provide a veneer of not just legitimacy, but also tradition, to what the genrou did.
After all, if anybody felt nervous about the adoption of Western dress by government ministers, or the establishment of a Diet, they could at least take comfort in the idea that it was all part of "a search for knowledge throughout the world would follow in order to strengthen the foundation of imperial rule." (or however that goes...)

A monarchy could be useful in (Qing Empire) China for the same reason. Get the reigning monarch to abdicate after the Boxer Rebellion. They are replaced with a "clean slate" monarch, about whom not much is known. Everything bad that went before could be blamed on the Empress Dowager, and not on the institution of the monarchy per se. Public discomfort at reforms and modernization is muted somewhat. Any politician or general who tries to seize local power or resists the reforms can be tarred with the brush of anti-monarchism/disloyalty (and possibly themselves painted as anti-tradition). Everybody's happy.

All you need is:
1.) A suitable (read: malleable) new monarch
2.) A group of Chinese politicians who are both willing and able to become the power behind the throne, and keep it
3.) For those same politicians to be able enough to guide China through the needed reforms, while at the same time being astute enough to use the monarch for good PR
4.) For all this to fall into place right after the Boxers are crushed. Any earlier, and you might not get your chance. Any later, and the public disgust with the current monarch allows republicanism too strong a foothold amongst the intelligentsia.

My two cents, anyway.

Following my above comment to Helü's post, I think that Japan has the difference that it was smaller, homogeneous, and unification in the true sense was a new concept for it, so rallying behind the emperor seemed in-vogue, but in China the Qing were already rather disliked, and it wasn't just CiXi's problem. I think that pulling an Meiji could still work, but it would have to be a radical change, as in, a whole new dynasty. And since it would take a while for this new dynasty and its monarch to take over, lots of bloodshed and years of un-productivity would still be needed. However, it might take less time and perhaps be more of a direct route, like perhaps only a single series of warlords, the warlords are defeated in the late 20s or early 30s, and China goes on its way, unlike IOTL where it took from 1911 to 1949, an escalating foreign invasion, and multiple governments to actually get anywhere, and even then it wasn't until ~1980 that things began to legitimately go in China's favor.