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The OTL Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement is a simple partition of Eastern Europe between Hitler and Stalin. While dividing Poland between them is easy, the plan leads the two to have a common border making Barbarossa possible.

Let's suppose that Koba is a bit more weary of Hitler. Instead of a partition, they form a neutral zone of Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey Asia Minor. Anything West of them, Hitler may do as he please. This puts Europe and Africa in Hitler's zone and Persia, India, China and Japan in the Soviet zone

The buffer states are told that as long as they remain neutral they will be left alone Otherwise, the customary example will be made of them. Being hopelessly outgunned the buffer states naturally agree

By September 1939 Hitler is attacking France and Stalin Japan

How does it play out from here?

Britain would, I presume come to France's aid. Not sure what Italy does. This would also seem to make Japan and Britain allies again which would have interesting ramifications for US-Japanese relations
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