Molotov-Ribbentrop revised: The Polish buffer

The OTL Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement is a simple partition of Eastern Europe between Hitler and Stalin. While dividing Poland between them is easy, the plan leads the two to have a common border making Barbarossa possible.

Let's suppose that Koba is a bit more weary of Hitler. Instead of a partition, they form a neutral zone of Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey Asia Minor. Anything West of them, Hitler may do as he please. This puts Europe and Africa in Hitler's zone and Persia, India, China and Japan in the Soviet zone

The buffer states are told that as long as they remain neutral they will be left alone Otherwise, the customary example will be made of them. Being hopelessly outgunned the buffer states naturally agree

By September 1939 Hitler is attacking France and Stalin Japan

How does it play out from here?

Britain would, I presume come to France's aid. Not sure what Italy does. This would also seem to make Japan and Britain allies again which would have interesting ramifications for US-Japanese relations
 
The Finns, Latvians and Estonians are pretty offended that you forgot to mention that they also fall into the Soviet sphere.

One wonders what the heck does Stalin think to gain from attacking Japan? He immediately gets to lose the northern half of Sakhalin, with its oil, which he can't get back before a massive naval construction plan (and for the same reason he can't hurt the Japanese home islands or shipping). He can get a slice of Manchuria, containing, however, resources that the Soviet Union doesn't lack (it was important for the Japanese exactly because on the contrary they needed those resources).

For Hitler, naturally, such an agreement can only be temporary, with a view to betraying it. The possibility to attack France without having to watch his back is nice, but France has no Lebensraum to offer, so it will then be back to Poland - at least.
 
the plan leads the two to have a common border making Barbarossa possible.

Which, when one takes Hitlers obsession with 'Lebensraum' in the East into account was kinda the point of it.

The buffer states are told that as long as they remain neutral they will be left alone Otherwise, the customary example will be made of them. Being hopelessly outgunned the buffer states naturally agree

Finland begs to differ. And given what happened to Czechia the buffer states might not be convinced about really getting left alone. Germany will still want Danzig and the Corridor at least (the more the German-Polish border looks like 1914 the better) and from Romania Russia probably still wants Bessarabia and Germany kinda needs that the oil from Ploesti comes unhindered.
 
Which, when one takes Hitlers obsession with 'Lebensraum' in the East into account was kinda the point of it.



Finland begs to differ. And given what happened to Czechia the buffer states might not be convinced about really getting left alone. Germany will still want Danzig and the Corridor at least (the more the German-Polish border looks like 1914 the better) and from Romania Russia probably still wants Bessarabia and Germany kinda needs that the oil from Ploesti comes unhindered.

Well, now lets see: If you were Poland and you had a choice- fight Hitler and Stalin and be partitioned or stay out of the Soviet and German expansion schemes and being left alone, which would you choose?

The agreement puts France in Germany's zone and Finland in the Soviet zone. They are likely to fight and lose as they did OTL
 
The problem with this agreement is that the states that are physically next to Germany and/or Russia have to trust Hitler, Stalin, or in the case of states like Poland with borders with both of them, trust BOTH Hitler and Stalin. Really? I mean really? No matter how much these states build up their militaries in order to have a shot at maintaining independence they need to ally with a major power. While a "local" military buildup might be allowed by the Germans or Russians, an alliance with an "outside" major power is not allowed here. This is a very bad situation, but for Poland, among others, it means that your one shot at a decent chance, alliance with outside major power, has to be given up and now Germany and/or the USSR can attack at any time without concern for any consequences.

These buffer states will all be swallowed up sooner or later under this deal, at least those in Europe.
 
Well, now lets see: If you were Poland and you had a choice- fight Hitler and Stalin and be partitioned or stay out of the Soviet and German expansion schemes and being left alone, which would you choose?

False dichotomy.

There is still the option that either Germany or Russia (or maybe even both) will one day break their own promises and slaughter the defenseless neutral buffer nations. Or turn them into de facto puppets/vassals (which tbh they would be anyways)

For starters you still haven't answered how Germany has repaired it's lost credibility after annexing Rump-Czechia. After that any promise made by Germany isn't even worth the paper it's written on.
 
False dichotomy.

There is still the option that either Germany or Russia (or maybe even both) will one day break their own promises and slaughter the defenseless neutral buffer nations. Or turn them into de facto puppets/vassals (which tbh they would be anyways)

For starters you still haven't answered how Germany has repaired it's lost credibility after annexing Rump-Czechia. After that any promise made by Germany isn't even worth the paper it's written on.




So here are the possibilities for Poland the only country that really matters that we've changed:

You stand by France and get crushed in two weeks and we have OTL

You accept your role as buffer. This has the advantage of at least buying some time

There is the possibility, rather large, that Hitler and Stalin keep their agreement out of self interest If either breaks the agreement and invades you, the other will be on to him and attack. It means your doomed but so might the aggressor. It might be enough to make Hitler or Stalin hesitate and there is a chance that you can stay on as a puppet regime

Sweden and Turkey stay out for the entire war. Romania and Poland get invaded and have no choice


As for Hitler's lost credibility: well, Stalin made his pact with the devil OTl. We're just making some slight changes to it.

And no, Hitler doesn't get everything he wants. But perhaps France, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Britain and Africa are enough compensation for Danzig
 
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Germany will still want Danzig and the Corridor at least (the more the German-Polish border looks like 1914 the better) and from Romania Russia probably still wants Bessarabia and Germany kinda needs that the oil from Ploesti comes unhindered.

They'd want the 1914 borders. They may not necessarily get them, but it's a distinct possibility in the context of TTL. Even that is not enough Lebensraum. The amount of room Nazi Germany felt it needed was based on comparisons with neighboring countries and a 10-20% increase would not have been enough. All of Poland might have been enough for the economists but was certainly not enough for Hitler.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Poland accepting the role as a "buffer" ... ... ...

Weren't there OTL prominent poles claiming, that if Germany attacks, they (the Poles) will be in Berlin in a week (or fortnight)?
 
The OTL Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement is a simple partition of Eastern Europe between Hitler and Stalin. While dividing Poland between them is easy, the plan leads the two to have a common border making Barbarossa possible.

Let's suppose that Koba is a bit more weary of Hitler. Instead of a partition, they form a neutral zone of Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey Asia Minor. Anything West of them, Hitler may do as he please. This puts Europe and Africa in Hitler's zone and Persia, India, China and Japan in the Soviet zone

The buffer states are told that as long as they remain neutral they will be left alone Otherwise, the customary example will be made of them. Being hopelessly outgunned the buffer states naturally agree

By September 1939 Hitler is attacking France and Stalin Japan

How does it play out from here?

Britain would, I presume come to France's aid. Not sure what Italy does. This would also seem to make Japan and Britain allies again which would have interesting ramifications for US-Japanese relations
Hitler has by this point in the original timeline established that he wants territory to the east of Germany - he's written about it. Stalin wants territory - at the very least the bits of formerly Russian territory back lost during or in the immediate aftermath of world war one (including bits of what was then Russia which the Poles carved off for themselves).
Without a point of departure before the 1930's, agreeing to a buffer zone gets neither of them territory which they specifically covet.
 

ATP45

Banned
The OTL Molotov-Ribbentrop agreement is a simple partition of Eastern Europe between Hitler and Stalin. While dividing Poland between them is easy, the plan leads the two to have a common border making Barbarossa possible.

Let's suppose that Koba is a bit more weary of Hitler. Instead of a partition, they form a neutral zone of Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria Turkey Asia Minor. Anything West of them, Hitler may do as he please. This puts Europe and Africa in Hitler's zone and Persia, India, China and Japan in the Soviet zone

The buffer states are told that as long as they remain neutral they will be left alone Otherwise, the customary example will be made of them. Being hopelessly outgunned the buffer states naturally agree

By September 1939 Hitler is attacking France and Stalin Japan

How does it play out from here?

Britain would, I presume come to France's aid. Not sure what Italy does. This would also seem to make Japan and Britain allies again which would have interesting ramifications for US-Japanese relations
That would be wise for both soviets and germany.Unfortunatelly,both Hitler and Stalin was alpha males.They could not agree with half of world - both want all.
 
Poland accepting the role as a "buffer" ... ... ...

Weren't there OTL prominent poles claiming, that if Germany attacks, they (the Poles) will be in Berlin in a week (or fortnight)?

Words to that effect, but I never found a named reference to a prominent figure. It usually is "Polish officers".
 
Poland accepting the role as a "buffer" ... ... ...

Weren't there OTL prominent poles claiming, that if Germany attacks, they (the Poles) will be in Berlin in a week (or fortnight)?
Perhaps a few ignorant souls, though I don't think that any of them would be so foolish as to think they had a chance against both Hitler and Stalin

Really, don't see this as a difficult POD. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is a mutual aggression pact, this just changes the victims
 
Really, don't see this as a difficult POD.

Sigh. Oh well.

1. Hitler wanted Lebensraum, and German warfare needed food. That means fertile agricultural land that also is underpopulated by some supposedly inferior race. That can be found in the "neutral buffer" he'd be undertaking a commitment not to touch - and beyond, in the Soviet Union.

2. German warfare needed oil. That can be found in the "neutral buffer" Hitler would be undertaking a commitment not to touch. Sure the Germans can still buy Romanian oil from Romania as a neutral country. At market prices instead of at favorable prices. And the British or Americans can drive the prices up deliberately. And the Soviets might just violate the agreement first and be in Ploesti in a week.

3. German warfare needed iron. That can be found in the "neutral buffer" Hitler would be undertaking a commitment not to touch. In actual reality, Sweden was indeed not touched - but it could have easily gone the other way. And in any case it was sandwiched between a German occupied country and a German allied country.

4. German warfare needed nickel. Ruling out sources that will be interdicted by British dominance of the sea, again this is something that can be found in a country Hitler would be giving up to Stalin. Sure, this happened anyway in OTL with Finland - save that then things changed.

5. German warfare needed a land border with the target as per #1 above.

So, there are only two possibilities as to this wacky deal:

a. Hitler does not accept it,
b. if Hitler accepts it, he's lying. He'll violate the buffer at the first occasion, and if at all possible he'll want to be in Ploesti before the Soviets.
 
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