Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

Hypothetical scenario:

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact doesn't happen due to a last minute snafu (personality conflict or whatever). What are the implications? It would seem that without this Pact the Nazis would have had some major problems. Had they gone into Poland without this Pact they would have faced the Russians long before Barbarossa. Any thoughts on how the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact not happening would have impacted the Nazi seizure of power?
 
I have read an article that claims that whole pact was part of the Stalin's plot to get Germans to war against whole Europe. Unfortunately this article
is only Finnish, but I can try to translate part of it if you wish (not very good at it): ( http://personal.inet.fi/koti/juhani.putkinen/yleista_sotahistoriaa.htm )

But anyhow, Mr. Hitler ate the bait, and we all know what happened next...

Personally I think that if the pact fails for some reason, Hitler and his staff will
not invade to Poland. It will be the sign to Hitler that Stalin has some plans which he hasn't told to Hitler, and Hitler was so paranoid that it will sure ring
some alarm bells in Hitler's head.
 
As I understand it the Soviet Union feared that the West wanted to cause a war between them and the Nazis and thought that this particular evil deal by evil states served their interests.


Hitler could have taken the view that Stalin would not go to war if he did not have to and that he could take all of Poland.

This causes one small and one bigger problem for the Nazis.

I presume taking all of Poland costs Hitler a little more than takingh half of it did in OTL.

Also Hitler does not have oil and other raw materials.

This may prevent or greatly reduce the Nazi gains of 1940 in OTL.
 
I want to put all upside down: what IF it was the nazis (please remember this is just my idea of some timeline) who broke this pact in such of short notice?
It will need some kind of "chrystal ball" to foresee what will happen, but in their (germans) point of wiew, it would have been wiser to avoid full conflict with Poland, and instead get military aid to some polish troops. If I remember right, there was only about some thousands of soldiers, and most of them with light weaponry, in the eastern part of Poland. Hitler had said that his worst enemy was Soviet Union, so logical conclusion will be that why waste your power to minor opponent when you can use them against your main enemy?
The whole planning must have done with most top secrecy, and it would have been terrible task with all those people they must have recruited and/or convinced.
 
I want to put all upside down: what IF it was the nazis (please remember this is just my idea of some timeline) who broke this pact in such of short notice?
It will need some kind of "chrystal ball" to foresee what will happen, but in their (germans) point of wiew, it would have been wiser to avoid full conflict with Poland, and instead get military aid to some polish troops. If I remember right, there was only about some thousands of soldiers, and most of them with light weaponry, in the eastern part of Poland. Hitler had said that his worst enemy was Soviet Union, so logical conclusion will be that why waste your power to minor opponent when you can use them against your main enemy?
The whole planning must have done with most top secrecy, and it would have been terrible task with all those people they must have recruited and/or convinced. But anyhow this would affect some interesting scenario I think. When the Soviets invade in Poland, instead of couple of thousand light-armoured infantrymen, they are facing with more groups with decent AT-weapons and better planes.
How this would affect later in Finland area, let's see...
 
I want to put all upside down: what IF it was the nazis (please remember this is just my idea of some timeline) who broke this pact in such of short notice?
It will need some kind of "chrystal ball" to foresee what will happen, but in their (germans) point of wiew, it would have been wiser to avoid full conflict with Poland, and instead get military aid to some polish troops. If I remember right, there was only about some thousands of soldiers, and most of them with light weaponry, in the eastern part of Poland. Hitler had said that his worst enemy was Soviet Union, so logical conclusion will be that why waste your power to minor opponent when you can use them against your main enemy?
The whole planning must have done with most top secrecy, and it would have been terrible task with all those people they must have recruited and/or convinced.

Well you would have to get Hitler to somehow not see Poland as simply real-estate for German settlers.

He didn't have a very high view of Slavs in general (including the Poles) so why would he want to arm them even if they are a minor opponent? What good would it do if at the end of it all there is still an independent Poland basically blocking German's access to its "lebensraum" in the (ex-)USSR?
 
Maybe some kind of alliance with Poland, new government in Poland of course which are more german-kindly. If you manage to cause a conflict between the Soviets and the Polish, and the only factor that can seriously aid Poland at that time would be Germany, then maybe it will not be so hard at all. Of course not those concentration/death camps, but either no Katyn Massacre and so on.
Hitler's personal wiew would have been totally different than this timeline, and also some of those nasty komrades have to be "removed". For example: "After two years of investigations and interrogations, Herman Goering was put in charge to "attempt to murder Walther Wever, Chief of Staff of the Luftwaffe, on 6 June 1936", and therefore he was arrested..."
 
I presume taking all of Poland costs Hitler a little more than takingh half of it did in OTL.
IOTL Hitler defeated everything Polish capable of fighting before USSR got involved. Big chunk of what was to become Western Ukraine and Western Belarus was occupied by the German army and handed to Soviets according to MRP. If there's no MRP, Germans would just stay there.

Also Hitler does not have oil and other raw materials.
Why? No MRP does not mean immediate war. And, being neutral country, Soviet Union is free to sell whatever it wants to any other country. However, role of Soviet supply is greatly overrated. Nazi war machine could manage without it just fine, as 1941-1943 proved.

And last but not least. Anyone who believes that an army of WWII vintage could prepare for a war in a week (Aug. 23- to Aug. 31), I happen to have a great bridge for sale for a very low price...
 
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