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Kicking around an idea.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was obviously ASB but it happened. What if the Japanese were a party to the discussions and in return for an understanding on spheres of influence in China, they also get to trade with the Russians, most importantly providing oil to overcome the short term effects of any US embargo?

Would this allow them to make better progress in China?

Would Abe's diplomatic success in resolving the Northern border allow him more say in how the Sino-Japanese war is resolved. Might this keep him in power as PM longer?

Could the Japanese survive WW2 as non-beligerents if they confined their operations to China? Would USSR be able to supply them with any meaningful supplies of oil after the German attack

I fully recognise you'd need a POD well before 1939 to butterfly away the Khakin Gol and other battles - could the Japanese and Russians ever do a deal (before you answer that - remember the Nazis and Stalin did do a deal OTL)?
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