Molotov-Ribbentrop-Abe Pact?

Kicking around an idea.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was obviously ASB but it happened. What if the Japanese were a party to the discussions and in return for an understanding on spheres of influence in China, they also get to trade with the Russians, most importantly providing oil to overcome the short term effects of any US embargo?

Would this allow them to make better progress in China?

Would Abe's diplomatic success in resolving the Northern border allow him more say in how the Sino-Japanese war is resolved. Might this keep him in power as PM longer?

Could the Japanese survive WW2 as non-beligerents if they confined their operations to China? Would USSR be able to supply them with any meaningful supplies of oil after the German attack

I fully recognise you'd need a POD well before 1939 to butterfly away the Khakin Gol and other battles - could the Japanese and Russians ever do a deal (before you answer that - remember the Nazis and Stalin did do a deal OTL)?
 
The MR pact wasn't ASB.

It was a state,ent of mutual distrust, I.e. we don't trust you but cannot go to war and be fairly certain of victory. The Japanese and Russians have no similar reason to agree. If their forces do fight the Soviets know they can crush Japan in ombat, if they don't fight Japan will be certain they can do the same to the Soviets now, as they did to Russia in 1905.
 
Eh, I wouldn't put it as ASB so much. The Soviets had been trying since the 1930s to work out a military alliance with the West, but the Great Purge of Soviet political and military leadership not-so-subtly undercut their appeals there (as if a fraction of the conspiracies had been true then the USSR was a useless ally too incapable of controlling its own government and army, if they weren't true then it was a very ill-timed slaughter of the USSR's best and brightest at all levels). Then as Hitler's growing power is taking over Europe and the Allies are clearly not interested in a military pact with the USSR, the USSR is isolated. The USSR thus had to either continue banging its head against a brick wall it had built for itself or make a deal with Hitler in the expectation (hardly unreasonable) that France and the UK would smash him and let the USSR avoid chaos.

What you're describing here is what Matsuoka spent a long time trying to get IOTL during 1940-1. It didn't work, the USSR was fine with a Non-Aggression Pact, the Germans were too interested in getting Hitler's vision of "Russia as Germany's India" to stop and ponder the potential results of such an alliance.
 
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