(I came up with the idea for this scenario about a year ago, but never posted it. In the meantime, all my references have been taken back to the library. Errors can be expected to result.)
“Mao was quite modest,” General Zhang Zeng recalled, marvelling a bit that this could have been true. “He took the advice of his commanders.” This attitude would vanish in the mid 1950s.
Harrison Salisbury, The New Emperors
Everyone here should know Mao Zedong. Leader of mainland China from 1949 to 1976, his record is dominated by two incidents: The Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution.
The Great Leap Forward was a plan to transform mainland China from a primarily agrarian economy
into a modern and industrialized communist society. It was a complete and utter failure, with a death toll possibly over forty million. As a result, Mao was sidelined, allowing modest reforms to be enacted by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping.
In response, Mao launched the Cultural Revolution, which was, in turn, a complete disaster for China, with millions killed, unmatched destruction of historical artifacts, and an entire generation of inadequately educated individuals. It did, however, firmly recement Mao’s hold on power.
Now. Suppose that instead of becoming consumed with megalomania, Mao retains the relatively humble attitude suggested by the quote above. Unlikely due to the near-absolute power he wielded by this time, but it should be within the boundaries laid out by human psychology. What happens next?
Firstly, there is no Great Leap Forward. Instead, we see the focus on Soviet-style heavy industry advocated by others in the party. Consequently, there is no Cultural Revolution. Mao remains in firm control of the party until declining health forces him to take a more passive role in the early seventies. Due to the lack of both the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward, Deng Xiaoping finds it harder to oust Hua Guofeng. Instead, they compromise. China continues the policies of Soviet-style industrial planning and party control of the economy, but many smaller measures (Such as the responsibility system, and the opening of China to trade and FDI) are implemented.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, various protégés of Deng put China through a more thorough programme of economic liberalization. By the present day, China is at least as developed, but has got there with far less suffering and destruction.
Any thoughts?
“Mao was quite modest,” General Zhang Zeng recalled, marvelling a bit that this could have been true. “He took the advice of his commanders.” This attitude would vanish in the mid 1950s.
Harrison Salisbury, The New Emperors
Everyone here should know Mao Zedong. Leader of mainland China from 1949 to 1976, his record is dominated by two incidents: The Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution.
The Great Leap Forward was a plan to transform mainland China from a primarily agrarian economy
into a modern and industrialized communist society. It was a complete and utter failure, with a death toll possibly over forty million. As a result, Mao was sidelined, allowing modest reforms to be enacted by Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping.
In response, Mao launched the Cultural Revolution, which was, in turn, a complete disaster for China, with millions killed, unmatched destruction of historical artifacts, and an entire generation of inadequately educated individuals. It did, however, firmly recement Mao’s hold on power.
Now. Suppose that instead of becoming consumed with megalomania, Mao retains the relatively humble attitude suggested by the quote above. Unlikely due to the near-absolute power he wielded by this time, but it should be within the boundaries laid out by human psychology. What happens next?
Firstly, there is no Great Leap Forward. Instead, we see the focus on Soviet-style heavy industry advocated by others in the party. Consequently, there is no Cultural Revolution. Mao remains in firm control of the party until declining health forces him to take a more passive role in the early seventies. Due to the lack of both the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward, Deng Xiaoping finds it harder to oust Hua Guofeng. Instead, they compromise. China continues the policies of Soviet-style industrial planning and party control of the economy, but many smaller measures (Such as the responsibility system, and the opening of China to trade and FDI) are implemented.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, various protégés of Deng put China through a more thorough programme of economic liberalization. By the present day, China is at least as developed, but has got there with far less suffering and destruction.
Any thoughts?
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