Modern world with No Islam

[htgriffin]

What would the world like like today if their was no islam? Say Mohammad either converted to a form of Christianity or died before his conversion.

Quite hard to say... let us start with at least one basic presumption to narrow the possibilities down and assume further that no single power unifies the Arab Tribes (yes, whacking Mohammed thus insuring Omar had less to work with is needful). They are still due for a Volkswanderung but would neither get as far nor form any single megastate.

Working our way outward we have:

• The Fertile Cresent (Persian Mesopotamia and Roman Syria/Palestine): Overrun in short order as the last round of wars left the Sassanids in a state of Collapse and the Monophystite lands only recently regained for New Rome on the edge of revolt (thier respective Lakhminid and Gassanid Arab client states would either be overrun or use the migrants to inflate their armies and invade in the hopes of riding the tiger). The Arab invaders _may_ impose thier own language over the Aramiac dialects spoken by commoners on both sides of the border, but would certainly adopt Nestorian Christianity and elements of Persian culture in the Mesopotamian kingdom(s) within a generation.
  
  In the former Roman lands (the locals would fight as fiercely for the sake of the alien heretics oppressing them as OTL) of the Levant, there would be if anything an anti-Roman backlash as the local Monophystite sect spreads down into the Hejaz and Yemen (probably growing annoyingly intolerant in the process, the Jews will be in better shape in the East).
  
• Persia proper: Hosed. No wholesale overruning for the sake of a faith needed, banditry and adventurism would kick the whole thing down and the question is if one would-be Shah grabs the remaining mechanisms of state to estabish a new dynasty over the Persian Highlands or if the factions of surviving Persian nobility battle it out with the Arab interlopers (and each other) for a generation or three before any stable successor statelets stablize.
  
  Either way, Zorastorianism has put down enough roots for Judaism and (Nestorian) Christianity to remain minority faiths for the forseeable future
  
• Egypt: The situation would probably be a lot less violent version of the Levantine one.
  
  Good sized number of Arabs/Bedouins passing through/raiding/settling, check.
  
  Local Legions and any appointees from Constantinople existing on sufferance if not driven out completely, check.
  
  Monophystite (Proto Coptic) Christanity acendant and making converts among the invaders, check.
  
  That being said, once it is clear to the Baselius that Egypt is lost (or face-saving forms can be worked out with whoever is in power in Alexandria) then there will be considerable contact and trade with the Bosphorus and relations will probably be more civil on the whole.
  
• Central Asia: The Persian stretch of the Silk Road would be largely untouched by the madness further south, and odds are places like Samarkand would find themselves de-facto City-States. Culturally they would remain Persian although Buddhism and Nestorian Christianity would find themselves competing and/or merging.
  
  On the Steppes? I figure we are looking at (more or less, with considerable shading between) Chalcedonian Christainity & Rhomaioi culture spreading slowly into OTL Ukraine, Armenian Monophystism creeping through the Caucasus, and Perso-Nestoran/Buddhist culture shading into Sino-Buddhist influence heading east from the Caspian.
  
• The Mahgreb: Primarily Chalcedonian, Latin in speech (at least among the coast/cities), and already having declared independence under one Gregory the Patrician? I am afraid Constantinople can write this place off too, especially if the local authorities recruit the local Berbers (mainly Pagan and a few Jewish converts) to save thier skins.
  
  That being said the Berbers are certain become kingmakers and then kings in their own right, converting and latinizing in the process much as the Germans did until a viable Reginum Mauratanium is an unescapable reality in the western Med. Enough Bedouins, and thier camels would make it this far west to insure the trans-Saharan trade routes kick into high gear more-or-less on schedule... with obvious ramifications for the face of Black Africa as well.
  
• Roman Empire: One guy I spoke with said it best, 'The Rhomaioi lose the Levant, the Maghreb, and probably Egypt in short order... then take their fustrations out on the Bulgars.'
  
  The Theme system of freeholding soldier-yeomen would probably be a little slower to develop, especially if the Arab raids are less severe and OTL and relations with Egypt remain civil. However the need for reliable troops and increaces self sufficiency make it likely to come about anyway.
  
• Barbarian Europe and further afield: Visigothic Spain is a write-off in case you are wondering. The real question is whether the Franks or the Mauretanians leap on the disintergrating carcass faster.
  
  The Franks are still the 800lb Gorilla of Western Europe, and will probably back the Pope's asperations to the hilt.
  
  The Arab traders of Oman will probably still be a factor. The question is whether they end up Nestorian Christians... or Buddhists?

Any thoughts?

HTG

 

[MerryPrankster]

HTG,

Very good scenario. Thing is, wouldn't the Arab invaders of the Levant convert to Monophysitism instead of Nestorianism? Nestorianism was the dominant version of Christianity in Persia and Central Asia, while Monophysitism was the dominant sort in the Levant and Egypt, while Donatism was the dominant sort in the Maghreb.

Hmmm...Donatist Berbers.

 

[wkwillis]

If there is no Mohammed, but there is still Omar, then he needs a religious motivation to go with the volcanic eruption caused climatic catastrophe of the Fall of the Cities that launched the Arabs out of Arabia.
Say, Judaism. It was all over the Arabian peninsula, and other places from England to China.
Jerusalem falls to the triumphant armies of Allah (Jehovah or Yahweh is Allah in the Arab dialect of semitic) as the Messenger of God smites the unbelievers. The armies roll over the Roman/Byzantine legions and conquer Egypt, swarming on to conquer all the world. The Word of God adds Omar to the list of Abraham, Moses, and Jesus. Judaism finally conquers the Roman empire and avenges Masada. The Temple is rebuilt, but with a new and more austere set of rules. No animal sacrifice, prayer five times a day, pilgrimage to Jerusalem, charity, an annual fast celebrating the scarcity of food at the siege of Jerusalem commemorated by hanakuh, etc.

When God wants a testament sent, God will send that testament. If Muhammed gets bitten by a snake sent by Satan, God will send some other messenger. There is something in the Koran about that. About the uselessness of plotting against God. "God knows, for God is the most cunning of plotters"

 

[htgriffin]

HTG,

Very good scenario.

Thank you.

Thing is, wouldn't the Arab invaders of the Levant convert to Monophysitism instead of Nestorianism? Nestorianism was the dominant version of Christianity in Persia and Central Asia, while Monophysitism was the dominant sort in the Levant and Egypt,

Ah, I thought it was implicit in my mention of Monophysitism bain carried back into western Arabia but I can see the confusion.

while Donatism was the dominant sort in the Maghreb.

It was? I thought the Latin Chalcedonians had effectively coopted and/or eliminated them by OTL's Arab conquest.

Hmmm...Donatist Berbers.

Picking up any flavor of Christianity en masse could be interesting... especially if the status of women remain as high as they did among the pagans (biggest anti-Arab leader in the 600s was a woman)

HTG

 

[htgriffin]

<Arabs adopting militant Judaism en-masse and doing more or less the same thing as OTL snipped>

When God wants a testament sent, God will send that testament. If Muhammed gets bitten by a snake sent by Satan, God will send some other messenger. There is something in the Koran about that. About the uselessness of plotting against God. "God knows, for God is the most cunning of plotters"

This is not the place for theological debates, but let me put forth an alternate scenario that better suits you.

Mohammed's life goes as OTL, Omar inherits rulership of the bulk of Arabia united under the Banner of Islam... and is pinned.

The POL here is that the last round of Perso-Rhomaioi wars were much less protraced or devastateing, instead being a set of mutual raids and attempted border adjustements in Armenia and upper Mesopotamia that ended fifteen years prior. The Sassanids are intact (the rather disturbed Chorses II being quietly disposed a decade ago) and quite ready to defend themselves. Meanwhile Egypt and the Levant are far less restive having not experienced Godless Persian Misrule (read: Pray how you wish, just pay your Taxes and don't start revolts) and being left alone by the current emperor so long as they do not preach in the Capital.

In short: the Caliphate ends up restricted to Arabia proper, the Levantine interior (they get lucky and take Jerusalem, then get smart and establish a co-dominium) and Mesopotamia; tops.

Now what?

HTG

 

[Macsporan]

A few of observations

The first is that the Arabs would have attacked adjacent civilisations anyway for two reasons: one it was time, they were apparently suffering from a population crisis.

The second it that the whole Mediterranean world was reeling from the Plague of Justinian whose aftereffects lasted a full century and had halved the population.

It actually changed the balance between the pastoral and agricultural people of the Levant decisively in favour of the former.

Another major issue was that the doctrinal squabbles of the Eastern Orthodox Church had got completely out of hand and was leading to widespread persecutions in Egypt and the Levant.

Finally there was the long, bitter and hideously destructive Byzantine-Persian War that along with the Plague seems to have finally extinguished the Greek maritime cities of Asia Minor, long the powerhouses of the Roman Empire.

The spiritual and physical foundations of civilisation were loosed. The Islamic avalanche followed.

It was the equivalant in the East of the Barbarian Invasions of the West.

Fortunately though these particular barbarians took quickly to civilisation and quickly created one of the most magnificent that has ever been seen on earth.

Much of the scientific and philosophical knowledge or antiquity actually came to the West via the Arabs.

By the way, Judaism although very good at survival has never been a successful prosyletising faith.

Talk of whole nations and peoples suddenly converting to it should be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[carlton_bach]

By the way, Judaism although very good at survival has never been a successful prosyletising faith.

Talk of whole nations and peoples suddenly converting to it should be taken with a grain of salt.

Well, it has happened once or twice (the Khazars were converted to Judaism, and in the first century AD, the king of Adiabene at least tried to make his kingdom Jewish). Still, you'd need to change Judaism quite a bit to make it that successful.

 

[JHPier]

htgriffin: Very good scenario.

[*]The Mahgreb: Primarily Chalcedonian, Latin in speech (at least among the coast/cities), and already having declared independence under one Gregory the Patrician? I am afraid Constantinople can write this place off too, especially if the local authorities recruit the local Berbers (mainly Pagan and a few Jewish converts) to save thier skins.
That being said the Berbers are certain become kingmakers and then kings in their own right, converting and latinizing in the process much as the Germans did until a viable Reginum Mauratanium is an unescapable reality in the western Med. HTG

Well, Punic was actually still going strong in parts of the countryside and IIRC a good many Berbers were Christians of sorts. By the time the Muslims arrived OTL Southern Morocco (the area where Marrakesh is today) seems to have developed a monotheistic faith of their own.

The followers of a Berber Prophet sweeping all before them as far as Egypt (Ã* la the Fatimids) and the Pyrenees?

[*][Enough Bedouins, and thier camels would make it this far west to insure the trans-Saharan trade routes kick into high gear more-or-less on schedule... with obvious ramifications for the face of Black Africa as well.
HTG

As a matter of fact camels were already around in the Maghreb in the 6C. They were used by Berber armies against Vandal cavalry with grear effect.

 

[Bulgaroktonos]

I'm dubious as to the idea that the Arabs would explode outwards. It may nonetheless happen, but without the catalyst of Mohammed, followed by Omar, the event may well be delayed for a few decades or more. In this case, the Byzantines and/or the Persians may be able to hold off the Arab invaders.

What would be interesting is if Heraclius didn't lose his mind, become sickly, and generally go to hell. It's possible to theorize that a restored (or never gone nuts) Heraclius would be able to garner support for monothelitism, and at least gloss over the issues for long enough to prevent the Levant and Egypt from eagerly going over to the Arabs. And with the few decades of breathing room for both Persia and Byzantium, they will likely be in better economic straits, and thus better able to finance a war against the Arab invasions....

 

[MerryPrankster]

Without Islam, will each of the great dispensations of Christianity have holy cities in the East? In addition to Rome and Constantinople, will Alexandria be the center of the Coptic Church and Ctesiphon or some other Persian city the central city of the Nestorians?

 

[htgriffin]

Without Islam, will each of the great dispensations of Christianity have holy cities in the East?

For various values of 'Holy", yes. The degree of temporal power that OTL's papacy enjoyed is by no means a given.

In addition to Rome and Constantinople, will Alexandria be the center of the Coptic Church

The Coptic Patriach will probably remain at the top of the Monophystite clergy in Africa (aside from perhaps the more independence-minded Somalis, who pick things up from Yemen and play them against the Ethiopians when the latter throws their weight about overmuch). There is almost certainly a Melekite/Chalcedonian Patriach resident as well.

The Levantine church is almost certainly centered in Jerusalem with at least nominal or moral authority from Yemen to Armenia.

Antioch... the Romaioi _probably_ manage to hold onto that if the Egyptian Legions are freed up.

and Ctesiphon or some other Persian city the central city of the Nestorians?

The Patriach of Babylon and All the East would certainly be honored, but with churches and monastaries scattered from India to Mongolia (and nothing resembling exclusive influence outside of parts of Mesopotamia) there is hardly any degree centrality save perhaps moral and an arbiter for theological disputes.

HTG

 

[Keenir]

Well, it has happened once or twice (the Khazars were converted to Judaism, and in the first century AD, the king of Adiabene at least tried to make his kingdom Jewish). Still, you'd need to change Judaism quite a bit to make it that successful.

why would it need to be changed? doesn't the fact that entire new populations adopted it, prove its inclusivity?

 

[MerryPrankster]

why would it need to be changed? doesn't the fact that entire new populations adopted it, prove its inclusivity?

I think many of those who adopted it did so after the requirements re: circumcision were loosened.

 

[Keenir]

<Arabs adopting militant Judaism en-masse and doing more or less the same thing as OTL snipped>This is not the place for theological debates, but let me put forth an alternate scenario that better suits you.

Mohammed's life goes as OTL, Omar inherits rulership of the bulk of Arabia united under the Banner of Islam... and is pinned.

The POL here is that the last round of Perso-Rhomaioi wars were much less protraced or devastateing, instead being a set of mutual raids and attempted border adjustements in Armenia and upper Mesopotamia that ended fifteen years prior. The Sassanids are intact (the rather disturbed Chorses II being quietly disposed a decade ago) and quite ready to defend themselves. Meanwhile Egypt and the Levant are far less restive having not experienced Godless Persian Misrule (read: Pray how you wish, just pay your Taxes and don't start revolts) and being left alone by the current emperor so long as they do not preach in the Capital.

In short: the Caliphate ends up restricted to Arabia proper, the Levantine interior (they get lucky and take Jerusalem, then get smart and establish a co-dominium) and Mesopotamia; tops.

Now what?

HTG

East Africa and the Indian subcontinent are converted...and from there, Islam spreads throughout the continents.

 

[Nicole]

East Africa and the Indian subcontinent are converted...and from there, Islam spreads throughout the continents.

One wonders why they would do better in Ethiopia and India than OTL if they're weaker, though...

 

[Keenir]

One wonders why they would do better in Ethiopia and India than OTL if they're weaker, though...

1) same reason Constantine of Byzantium picked a minority faith that's regularly persecuted.
2) same reason the Khazars picked a minority faith that, in other nations, is a frequent scapegoat.
3) because the Ethiopians and Indians don't need to be threatened to see a good thing when they see it.

 

[Nicole]

1) same reason Constantine of Byzantium picked a minority faith that's regularly persecuted.
2) same reason the Khazars picked a minority faith that, in other nations, is a frequent scapegoat.
3) because the Ethiopians and Indians don't need to be threatened to see a good thing when they see it.

Hm, I don't know much about India, but the Ethiopians remained Christian OTL under a lot of Muslim pressure, including several successful (albiet shortlived) conquests of Ethiopia by Muslim rulers.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

Holy thread necromancy, Batman!

 

[Keenir]

Holy thread necromancy, Batman!

this is what happens when someone mentions an interesting group or person in history -- but fails to go into detail.

 

[Flocculencio]

The world is about at a technical level 100 years below the present.

China/Japan (3 major civilizations, China, Mongolia and Japan occupy about the same cultural niches as France, Germany and England in OTL) is the de facto world Hegemon. This is due to her grabbing the gold ring of explosive modernization in the 10thc. She was able to do this because she did not have to fight off Islamic invaders in the eighth and ninth centuries. However, her progress has been slower because she has had to discover many technical/scientific events which Europe leapfrogged from Islamic advances. Also, much more of the ancients was lost in the Darkness.

Europe, without the unifying and civilizing effects of the Crusades, disintergrated into a series of smaller and smaller fratricidal states. Roads, commerce, cities and finally even villages disappeared as all vestiges of civilization decayed. A tiny recovery began in the 13thc but was cut short by the climactic and epidemiological catastrophes of the 14th.

By the latter 14thc Europe became the Northern outpost of the Songhai Empire. This conquest raised them above the tribal level they had sunk to and commerce began to revive. However, the Songhai was a typical short-lived kingdom. In 1421 it became the first major conquest of the Great Fleet sent out by the Chinese. This same fleet also discovered the Americas. Five centuries later the staid old mandarins of California and Oregon (indian names, I believe, so they wouldn't change) are trying to come to terms with the freethinkers just moving into an area they call Green Mountain and the other cold and poorly soiled regions of the area we call New England

Much else has, of course, happened since then. but Europe remains a severely disadvantaged area, cut into colonies totally dominated by its Chinese and Japanese masters, an Ancient and backward country, lost in dreams of its former, and now nearly mythical, Roman glory. Christian fundamentalism is a new and increasingly violent force menacing the Great Buddhindi Peace, the world's dominant and guiding religious movement for nearly 200 years

India, as usual, does nothing