Modern Spain if the Republicans had won the civil war.

Draconis

Considering what modern (2020) Spain is like just how different would modern Spain be if the Nationalists had lost and the Republicans had won the country?

What different directions would Spain's economy had taken? Its political, cultural and social institutions? Autonomy for the Basque and for Catalan?

Would modern Spain appear hugely different from its present state?
 
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Kurt_Steiner

When the Republic defeats the rebels? In July 1936, killing the rebellion before it breaks out? Later on? The longer the war lasts, the more butterflies you have.
 

Mynock

James Ricker said:
Hitler invades in 1940 and installs a facist government
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That would be an unbelievably bad idea. I doubt Hitler would want to open up a new front while he prepares for invading the USSR.
Also historically invading Spain is a bad idea. Its ideal ground for guerilla warfare and in this case could have a fair number of experienced guerilla fighters. It would be Peninsular War 2 electric boogaloo.
 
theg*ddam*hoi2fan

theg*ddam*hoi2fan

AlexG said:
Probably a crappier place to live than otl
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James Ricker said:
Hitler invades in 1940 and installs a facist government
Click to expand...

So...Hitler, already having to hold down France, decides to cross the Pyrenees. No doubt in the face of determined resistance from the Spanish Republic, who turn said mountain into a bloodbath. And odds are the British will be pouring resources in here, either by having the RAF bomb the hell out of German troops trying to cross, or having the Royal Navy prevent the Italians from carrying out amphibious landings. Spain becomes a major running sore that bleeds Wehrmacht and Italian troops as Hitler tries to force his way in, wasting men and resources in the process, add in resistance in France...

In other words, WWII is probably shortened, the Blitz likely doesn't go ahead because Hitler's trying to shove into Spain, Barbarossa is hugely delayed (assuming it happens at all), millions of people who did die OTL probably don't...

In other words, Spain going Republican could be a vast improvement for the world as a whole.
 

Dominic

Presuming Germany does not invade during WW2, the main question in terms of modern Spain is going to be who is in control of the republic? If they manage to squash the rebellion early on, presumably the republic limps on but remains generally non-warcrimey, which is a good thing of course, but how is the economy? In particular, if communists get into power then the economy will tank, though perhaps not immediately. Achieving some form of semi-stable democracy with the backing of the Allies, and which perhaps joins the later stage of WW2, would probably be ideal, but how difficult is this?
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Dominic said:
Presuming Germany does not invade during WW2, the main question in terms of modern Spain is going to be who is in control of the republic? If they manage to squash the rebellion early on, presumably the republic limps on but remains generally non-warcrimey, which is a good thing of course, but how is the economy? In particular, if communists get into power then the economy will tank, though perhaps not immediately. Achieving some form of semi-stable democracy with the backing of the Allies, and which perhaps joins the later stage of WW2, would probably be ideal, but how difficult is this?
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If the Allies support the Republican forces and help them win early (e.g. blockading the Strait of Gibraltar to prevent Franco from entering Spain), the Communists' influence would be weakened a lot, if not purged outright.

A democratic Republican Spain would not be shut out from the world markets for over a decade, and in addition, it could even become a founding member of ECSC. Thus, a democratic Republican Spain would be better off infinitely.
 

Dominic

Thomas1195 said:
If the Allies support the Republican forces and help them win early (e.g. blockading the Strait of Gibraltar to prevent Franco from entering Spain), the Communists' influence would be weakened a lot, if not purged outright.

A democratic Republican Spain would not be shut out from the world markets for over a decade, and in addition, it could even become a founding member of ECSC. Thus, a democratic Republican Spain would be better off infinitely.
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How likely is it for the republicans to receive this support?
 
TheDetailer

TheDetailer

I would imagine that Spain would be a little more tolerant of Basque and Catalan ppl ITTL, because of the lack of nationalist propaganda for decades, also depends if war crimes like Guernica happen or not.

“Invading Spain would be a bad idea”, so a German Napoleon basically?
 

Ficboy

Banned
The most obvious difference is that Spain would not be a monarchy since 1975 if the Republicans won the Civil War. For World War II, Germany and Vichy France might invade the place and install a puppet government as well as spread the Holocaust there.
 

The Galaxy

It depends on when it happens and what the government does after.

For example if the coup is prevented before it starts, for example by arresting all the leaders which the government had the option for a few weeks before it started when the police had informed the government that these specific individuals are planning a coup we have intercepted their transmissions, instead of ignoring that and actually acting on it, then there is no civil war and the country is not damaged.

Then when ww2 starts if the Spanish first sells weapons to the French, and then when and if France falls, sell supplies to the Germans, then during the invasion of Normandy join the Allies. Then Spain just as Sweden and Switzerland will have an undamaged industry that can supply Europe with goods and services.

So to answer the original question, it depends what they do.

Then there is a small possibility that the Spanish say that they will do land reform across South America and all will be given equal rights, universal suffrage and Spain and South America become one country, the Spanish military which has been built up during this time 1936-1944 lands in South America crushes the local elites and distributes the land among the people and install full democracy with equal rights for all. As long as FDR is alive he may agree to this.
 

James Ricker

Mynock said:
That would be an unbelievably bad idea. I doubt Hitler would want to open up a new front while he prepares for invading the USSR.
Also historically invading Spain is a bad idea. Its ideal ground for guerilla warfare and in this case could have a fair number of experienced guerilla fighters. It would be Peninsular War 2 electric boogaloo.
Click to expand...
Hitler couldn't tolerate a potential Continental enemy in the West not with bobarosa in the works.
 

Draconis

Thanks for the many interesting comments. I suppose the best possibility would have been no civil war at all. Or a much briefer war regardless of who won.
 

oberdada

Thomas1195 said:
If the Allies support the Republican forces and help them win early (e.g. blockading the Strait of Gibraltar to prevent Franco from entering Spain), the Communists' influence would be weakened a lot, if not purged outright.
Click to expand...
Couldn't Franco set up his own Regime limited to Spanish Morocco in that case?
 
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