Modern Poland-Lithuania

while going over my timeline, i decided that its probably too ASB for austria to control poland, or at least most of it. there's a few questions i want to ask here:

  1. what does everyone think is the best and/or most plausible POD for poland to be a regional power, possibly (but not necessarily) as poland-lithuania?
  2. what parts of europe which are not part of OTL poland and/or lithuania could it maintain control of?
  3. what kind of colonial empire could poland have without changing the colonial possessions of other countries by too much, depending on what the POD is?
  4. what parts of OTL poland and/or lithuania would belong to what other countries?
  5. what would poland's general standing on historical world events be following the POD? assume that there's controlled butterflies and most of the rest of the world isnt as affected by the POD as poland is
 
while going over my timeline, i decided that its probably too ASB for austria to control poland, or at least most of it. there's a few questions i want to ask here:

  1. what does everyone think is the best and/or most plausible POD for poland to be a regional power, possibly (but not necessarily) as poland-lithuania?
  2. what parts of europe which are not part of OTL poland and/or lithuania could it maintain control of?
  3. what kind of colonial empire could poland have without changing the colonial possessions of other countries by too much, depending on what the POD is?
  4. what parts of OTL poland and/or lithuania would belong to what other countries?
  5. what would poland's general standing on historical world events be following the POD? assume that there's controlled butterflies and most of the rest of the world isnt as affected by the POD as poland is
It would have survived if not for Catherine the Great and Prussia partitioning it.
 
while going over my timeline, i decided that its probably too ASB for austria to control poland, or at least most of it. there's a few questions i want to ask here:

  1. what does everyone think is the best and/or most plausible POD for poland to be a regional power, possibly (but not necessarily) as poland-lithuania?
  2. what parts of europe which are not part of OTL poland and/or lithuania could it maintain control of?
  3. what kind of colonial empire could poland have without changing the colonial possessions of other countries by too much, depending on what the POD is?
  4. what parts of OTL poland and/or lithuania would belong to what other countries?
  5. what would poland's general standing on historical world events be following the POD? assume that there's controlled butterflies and most of the rest of the world isnt as affected by the POD as poland is

1. Find some way in the 17th or 18th centuries to reform the Commonwealth, introduce centralized rule, and possibly reform the military from the cavalry-centric 17th Century Commonwealth to something more infantry-centric. There were plenty of opportunities, from the early elections after the Jagiellons died out, to the late 17th century and even into the 18th. I don't know, perhaps putting a Hapsburg on the Polish throne can help. Or anybody more competant than the Saxons, or indeed the Polish Vasas.

2. Possibly Ukraine and Belarus, in addition to Latvia. If you go back far enough, there's a slim chance of getting Sweden into the commonwealth. At most. Most likely, you'll get something like the pre-1772 borders of the Commonwealth. But if you can somehow get Sweden in, starting with personal union under a competent Vasa, then you open the door for

3. Polish-Lithuanian-Swedish colonies in New Jersey, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. Pretty much the only way I see the PLC seriously expanding overseas.

4. Silesia and Pommerania might remain German. They only got really resettled by Poles after 1945. Ditto for what we know as East Prussia.

5. No idea.
 
4. Silesia and Pommerania might remain German. They only got really resettled by Poles after 1945. Ditto for what we know as East Prussia.

Or, alternatively, a promotion of Schlesien identity in the place of the Germans? Or were they too close to Polish that they'd just have to be assimilated?
 
In the Code Geass TL's that I'm making with Sibirskaya..., We've just changed directions for a Slavic wank by using a surviving Poland-Lithuania through butterflying out Ivan the Terrible... making a limited political union with the Tsardom of Muscovy a possibility and thus changing the course of history from OTL... though the global POD happened way earlier in Southeast Asia during the Mongol times... then an European ripple effect that just came in through Russia by the sixteenth century... butterflying away Ivan the Terrible and sparing Russia into going to an autocratic direction... thus making Russia take advantage of being exposed to Western Europe a century earlier than usual... to create a Russia wank and transforming the location of the start of the Industrial Revolution to Commonwealth Prussia, Courland and Livonia rather than to a surviving absolutist Tudor England...

But realistically, You'll need a POD not in Poland-Lithuania for the Commonwealth to remain secure... You need to butterfly out the rise of an independent Prussia and Russia... You need to tie them down to the Commonwealth and only a proto-EU Polish-Lithuanian-Muscovite Commonwealth can do that... It would severely changed the flow of world history though...

Poland-Lithuania is quite hopeless to exist long because its political system, while quite enlightened for its time, had caused stagnation in economic sphere and near-anarchy in political governance... Reforms to the political system is needed for its continued existence... as well as swallowing its neighbors... That's the only way...
 
Maybe a brief period of rule under the Swedish Vasas, who centralize the government, beat down the nobility, and reform the army? Then, a native revolt against the Swedes manages to kick them out and reform the Commonwealth, except whoever leads it decides to keep the Swedish reforms because they give him more power. Maybe Jan Sobeiski could lead the revolt, after, say, Karl II manages to seize control of PLC during an alt-Deluge?
 
i could see that making sense: the swedes temporarily rule poland-lithuania, and then some time later break off from them somehow. sweden was relatively powerful and neutral, iirc, so that may well prevent prussia or russia from invading poland-lithuania until it becomes independent
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
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1. PoD: Hard, a pre- partition PoD would suffice, but Poland could get strong in the Inter- War era too if Russia totally collapse during the Civil War (i.e. neither Whites nor Reds win, but total chaos and warlordism).

2. Poland could control Lithuania, Belarus and Western Ukraine. With an early PoD Silesia, Pommerania and Prussia would probably be considered conquests too. (these areas might remain German, or Poland could conquer them and have a significant German minority).

3. Can't really see them have colonies, too far from the open sea and never really a naval power.

4. Best bet Silesia, Pommerania and East Prussia, since it would require a war with HRE/ Prussia/ Germany to aquire these territories.

5. a) A surviving Poland would create butterflies. We probably wouldn't see Prussia rise as important as OTL, Russia would be further east (and thus considerably weakened, especially if Poland can hold on to Belarus and western Ukraine). The alliances and wars of the 1800s would be different. Poland's stance would have an important role during the French revolution and the Napoleonic wars etc. A surviving Poland would mean a butterfly storm. Poland would not really be a great power in this scenario, but a regiona player that Prussia, Austria and Russia need to interact with.

b) Say Poland is recreated after WW1, and is able to conquer Lithuania, Belarus and Western Ukraine while Russia completely collapse into warlord cliques. Silesia, Pommerania and East Prussia would probably remain German. If Germany goes revengism under Hitler or some other regime I do see Poland fall, but might be recreated larger after the war if the Germans are defeated (and that's a if, since a Russia in pieces will not be able to mount such a strong defence against Germany as the USSR did). But let's say Germany is defeated by the West and Poland is restored to prewar borders + East Prussia, Silesia and Pommerania and we have an only slightly ASBish Poland wank.
 
what does everyone think is the best and/or most plausible POD for poland to be a regional power, possibly (but not necessarily) as poland-lithuania?

Victorious battle of Legnica resulting in regions of Poland not being depopulated, and reunification by Silesian Piasts. Prussia conquered by Poland instead of Teutonic Order, which results in butter-flying away strong Lithuanian state, which in turn prevents Poland from going down a route of decentralisation and progressively giving concession to nobles. With much bigger population (Silesia, lack of Mongol raids, polonised Prussia), as well as with better resources for industrial purposes (Silesia) Poland fares much better in early modern era. This also butterflies away German Prussia, limits German settlement in the East, and changes Polish language to something more German-like (something like OTL Silesian perhaps). Basically from PoD until something like 16th-17th century, Poland is able to expand without powerful rivals in the area, since west consists of fractured HRE states, Rus' principalities are suffering from Mongol yoke, and in the south Hungary is busy with Ottoman expansion.

what parts of europe which are not part of OTL poland and/or lithuania could it maintain control of?

OTL 14th century Poland (with Silesia), perhaps also Lubusz land (Neumark), much bigger Pomerelia with border further West, Prussia, some parts of Lithuania and Belarus, and Ukraine (Halych, Volhynia, Podolia). With possible involvement in HRE matters maybe some small border territories like Lusatia, or Stettin.

what kind of colonial empire could poland have without changing the colonial possessions of other countries by too much, depending on what the POD is?

No colonial empire - few Caribbean islands, some trade factories in African coast, but Poland won't be able to effectively hold them when confronted by proper naval/colonial power. (same problem like Sweden or Denmark faced).

what parts of OTL poland and/or lithuania would belong to what other countries?

In case of little or none involvement in HRE - Lubusz land (Neumark), small eastern part of Lusatia, and land of Duchy of Pommerania (most likely).

what would poland's general standing on historical world events be following the POD? assume that there's controlled butterflies and most of the rest of the world isnt as affected by the POD as poland is

Too difficult to predict with such early PoD, however - Poland would have some adventages in such scenario:

- bigger population
- better resources in industrial period
- lack of decentralisation and noble privileges - strong burgher class and centralised power of the king instead
- more coherent territory with borders easier to defend (lack of German Prussia)
- power vacuum in the region following PoD, enabling gradual expansion

So yeah - it could be more populous (something like UK or Italy in numbers), more industrialised, more politically stable, being regional power in Eastern/Central Europe.
 
Whenever I have thought on this I have wondered if after Henry III of France ran home abandoning the polish throne if they had elected Alanecon his younger brother king. Could a more powerful Poland with a blood tie to France aid it from being eaten by its neighbours.

I know the biggest issue would be the bourbon inheritance of France however it is arguable that the other European powers would unite to force a separation of the two crowns particularly HRE which would not like to be in a potential vice between a dual crown.
 
Whenever I have thought on this I have wondered if after Henry III of France ran home abandoning the polish throne if they had elected Alanecon his younger brother king. Could a more powerful Poland with a blood tie to France aid it from being eaten by its neighbours.

I know the biggest issue would be the bourbon inheritance of France however it is arguable that the other European powers would unite to force a separation of the two crowns particularly HRE which would not like to be in a potential vice between a dual crown.
Whenever I have thought on this I have wondered if after Henry III of France ran home abandoning the polish throne if they had elected Alanecon his younger brother king. Could a more powerful Poland with a blood tie to France aid it from being eaten by its neighbours.

I know the biggest issue would be the bourbon inheritance of France however it is arguable that the other European powers would unite to force a separation of the two crowns particularly HRE which would not like to be in a potential vice between a dual crown.

Calmdan, I think you would be best off starting a new thread with the same topic. You're pretty new, but the mods frown on resurrecting old threads like this; they call it necroing and it invariably leads to the thread being locked.

This is an interesting discussion, so why not start a new thread so we can all take part; its a topic I've always found fascinating!
 
Calmdan, I think you would be best off starting a new thread with the same topic. You're pretty new, but the mods frown on resurrecting old threads like this; they call it necroing and it invariably leads to the thread being locked.

This is an interesting discussion, so why not start a new thread so we can all take part; its a topic I've always found fascinating!
let me know if and when it comes up: i still want to learn more about this ;)
 
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