Modern military equipment if the Cold War was still going strong in 2017

SsgtC

Banned
Damn it this gives me an idea for a TL, ugh I already have too many.

Tell me about it! I've got two active TL right now, and ideas for about a dozen more. I've got to finish at least one of them before I on though. I don't have enough time as it is. Lol
 
In some ways it could be argued that the Cold War didn't end until the mid-2000's, at least in the minds of the defense industry and its friends. Despite the massive budget cuts that came with the Peace Dividend, the US military continued to focus on high-tech and high-end solutions for everything, which led to procurement death spirals with major end items (we buy less which means the unit cost is more which means we buy less which means the unit cost is more which means we buy 1 semi-capable LCS or F-35 for every five FFG or F-16 we retire prematurely to pay for it).

Higher defense budgets through the 1990's would have masked the sickness, but at some point the obsession with nonexistent technology and revolutionary superweapons would have all come crashing down.
 
In some ways it could be argued that the Cold War didn't end until the mid-2000's, at least in the minds of the defense industry and its friends. Despite the massive budget cuts that came with the Peace Dividend, the US military continued to focus on high-tech and high-end solutions for everything, which led to procurement death spirals with major end items (we buy less which means the unit cost is more which means we buy less which means the unit cost is more which means we buy 1 semi-capable LCS or F-35 for every five FFG or F-16 we retire prematurely to pay for it).

Higher defense budgets through the 1990's would have masked the sickness, but at some point the obsession with nonexistent technology and revolutionary superweapons would have all come crashing down.
Some people think the Cold War never ended at all and it just changed in some ways, especially regarding the events in Ukraine in 2014.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Some people think the Cold War never ended at all and it just changed in some ways, especially regarding the events in Ukraine in 2014.

IMHO, it took a hiatus for about 10 or 15 years. Now it's back, though the threat of open nuclear conflict has been drastically reduced. The rest I agree with you completely. The Cold War is still very much alive. It's just wagged on a very different level
 
Regarding pogs. It works the other way too. Imagine you are an 18 year old assistant dental hygienist working in a large hostile bureaucracy working long days in a base in a foreign land. All day long you see other service people with harder jobs, some from combat arms, but they all need their teeth cleaned, don't know how your procedures operate, and are a never ending wave of pain in your life. But you volunteered for and were inducted to help your glorious national war machine but were assigned to clean teeth. Your manhood or womanhood is questioned, you feel guilt, you resent. And damnit your job is part of keeping the war machine functioning.

There is a reason why trophy taking or disciplinary war rape are associated more with secondary formations than frontline formations. Combat formations are usually too tired to commit individual or small group atrocities and have no imagined glory of war that they feel they're failing to live up to. You don't buy jap ears at the beach with booze when you're busy trying to be drunk.

Yours,
Sam R.
 
Regarding the US/Soviet antagonism.

Both powers need to survive two economic crises each to get to 2017. The Soviet Union didn't do too well in the 1980s historically. The young nomenklatura were essentially apolitical machine politicians willing to sell the social property to themselves. I don't see a reform process working down the Chinese line: there is no highly politicised body of post cultural revolution engineers whose main aim is family survival and avoiding another wave of chaos.

Honestly the best bet for continued Soviet survival would be a kind of hundred flowers that activated the Soviet industrial working class in a revolutionary way. A vibrant viable soviet economy moving left would panic the pants off most capitalist powers in Europe, and the US, offer the potential to rework the Central European states and economies, and certainly justify the fordist / social democratic / imperialist compromise in the US that allowed for the Cold War.

Best POD: no Brezhnev, Dubcek gets backed then emulated by the Soviet Union. Means more communists in Western Europe and fewer right wing greens, but apart from Portugal unlikely to cause any revolutions to take on a socialist character.

Yours,
Sam R.
 
Yup. And then POGs wonder why grunts hate them.

And yes I am. Semper Fi brother

My father is retired Navy (1962-1992) and he hated Marines with a passion. He was shot during Tet by a Marine and he has never forgiven them. He started out in the gator navy and was in Naval Intelligence by the time he retired.
 
My father is retired Navy (1962-1992) and he hated Marines with a passion. He was shot during Tet by a Marine and he has never forgiven them. He started out in the gator navy and was in Naval Intelligence by the time he retired.
Sounds like a lot of Marines I knew with regards to sailors. Its all a bunch of shit, really.
 
Soviet strength numbers would have decreased. Even for the US the explosive growth in the size of conventional forces was unsustainable, which is why everyone readily agreed to the CFE treaty.

Ok then, thanks for that information.

It depends on whether we link the size of the military with population demographics.

In 1980 the Population of the US was 226 Million, in 1990 it was 248 Million.
In 2017 the estimate is 325 Million (It was 308 Million at the last census).
Assuming that the size of a volunteer military being around 1% of the total population at most (The US average tended to be slightly below that, the peak was 2,174,217 in 1987, with conscription it was 3,547,902 in 1968) the size of the Soviet Army might well have gone up. Just before its final collapse in 1991 the total population was 293 Million. With conscription the Soviet Armed Forces numbered 4,230,920 in 1991.

Assuming that the US Population continues its average rate of increase, and even assuming the Russian Federation's demographic collapse the total Population of the USSR will not actually have declined, with a volunteer military both sides might have 3 million men under arms.
 
Funny that you bring up Shipbucket. They have materials from a whole TL based on this premise with WW3 kicking off sometime last decade. I think it's called the Last War.

The Last War is still going strong (since 2005). I am a semi-regular contributor to the TL. Ask JN1 on this website, it's his baby. He was quite conservative in introducing new and exciting technologies. NATO is still playing with Abrams, Leo 2, Chally 2, Leclerc et al. while the Warsaw Pact has everything from T-72 to T-90 and the occasional T-95 cropping up. The WP was strapped for cash for too long to have made major strides in military technology and NATO was content to widen the technological gap and perform incremental upgrades for existing systems. With a few exceptions, of course, such as weapon systems that were held up in OTL being introduced (more or less) on time. But you won't see a 140mm tank gun anywhere.

With some exceptions, I find that approach to be quite sensible. You see nothing of those Tom Clancy-esque technology wank fests which makes the story more relatable.
 
The Last War is still going strong (since 2005). I am a semi-regular contributor to the TL. Ask JN1 on this website, it's his baby. He was quite conservative in introducing new and exciting technologies. NATO is still playing with Abrams, Leo 2, Chally 2, Leclerc et al. while the Warsaw Pact has everything from T-72 to T-90 and the occasional T-95 cropping up. The WP was strapped for cash for too long to have made major strides in military technology and NATO was content to widen the technological gap and perform incremental upgrades for existing systems. With a few exceptions, of course, such as weapon systems that were held up in OTL being introduced (more or less) on time. But you won't see a 140mm tank gun anywhere.

With some exceptions, I find that approach to be quite sensible. You see nothing of those Tom Clancy-esque technology wank fests which makes the story more relatable.

Cool, thanks. I wasn't aware it was still ongoing. I think it moved and I lost track of it. I did appreciate the lack of wunderwaffe.
 
Jotunpost: 15840797 said:
The Last War is still going strong (since 2005). I am a semi-regular contributor to the TL. Ask JN1 on this website, it's his baby. He was quite conservative in introducing new and exciting technologies. NATO is still playing with Abrams, Leo 2, Chally 2, Leclerc et al. while the Warsaw Pact has everything from T-72 to T-90 and the occasional T-95 cropping up. The WP was strapped for cash for too long to have made major strides in military technology and NATO was content to widen the technological gap and perform incremental upgrades for existing systems. With a few exceptions, of course, such as weapon systems that were held up in OTL being introduced (more or less) on time. But you won't see a 140mm tank gun anywhere.

With some exceptions, I find that approach to be quite sensible. You see nothing of those Tom Clancy-esque technology wank fests which makes the story more relatable.

Wait

The Last War hasn't been lost to time and Jan Niemcyzk is here

I've been looking for that story for the better part of two years, where is it
 
Where is the Last War TL? I think I've heard of it but I never got to read it.

What do you think of a NATO common armored vehicle platform in the 30-40 ton range for things like IFVs, APCs, artillery, SPAAGs, etc.? If the threat of a mechanized war persists into the 21st century, we might be seeing another round of armored vehicle development to start work on replacing everything that was introduced in the 1980s. The Heer, for example, is only now introducing a new IFV to replace their Marders. I imagine that might have happened a bit sooner in this scenario.
 
Did some thinking on what I think would happen for the US, starting with the USN

The Iowas are going to last longer, but still be gone by 2000, the major refits had hit diminishing returns and lots more cruise missile platforms are entering service

CVN construction is liable to slow after Reagan years, but not as much as OTL, say one laid down every 4 years rather than every 5 years, or 3 years. I'd think the Nimitz class gets 11 units, with a new class being laid down in 2009 as OTL. I think that Newport News would get the budget for that expansion they want to allow them to build larger carriers. So the *CVN-79 class would likely by 10-30% larger than the Nimitz class, using the extra space for passive survivability, more stores and greater operating efficiency, no larger air group or larger airframes, given that steel is cheap per unit cost would not go up that much. The older CV's are kept around longer, and likely one of the Forrestals replaces Lexteen as a training vessel

For the Amphibs, I figure the Wasp class are slightly speeded up in procurement, and that the successor class keep the well deck given the role of the Marines not changing to a lower intensity one

Cruisers, I see the Leahy and Belknaps (and their nuke derivatives) lasting into the 2000's, before being replaced by a DDG-51 derived cruiser class (deckhouse somewhat higher as on the Japanese and Korean variants for flag space, 128 VLS cells), not 1 for 1, but maybe 2 for 3 or a little less as the Burkes take up a lot of air defense slack. I see the California's still serving until 2010, and the Virginias getting the refueling and upgrades to last into the 2010's. The Mark 26 armed Ticonderoga class get that upgrade to give them 96 VLS cells and keep serving.

Destroyers, I still see the Flight IIA DDG-51's coming about, in order to take up some of the slack of the Knox class Frigates nearing the end of their service life without replacement. I see fewer built than OTL, maybe 60 total, as a replacement design, probably the 12,000 ton one suggested by the SOCS study, with an electric drive, greater networking and a buried bridge, plus I would think 96-128 VLS cells and 2 5" guns, would be built sometime starting around 2005. All 31 Spruances get the VLS upgrade, and the class serves to 2019. The Kidd class also likely serves longer with the US, to 2005 or later, before being sold. Charles F. Adams is on the way out, but still probably serves until the mid to late 90's to keep numbers up

Frigates, The SCFRS study in 1989 suggested that the US stop building Frigates and start only building high end ships, that could serve in secondary roles after they are no longer fit for frontline service. Knoxes are probably retired in the late 90's, early 00's. The OHPs probably get a heavier refit than OTL, the Mk. 13 would probably get replaced with a RAM launcher as planned OTL, and an 8 cell VLS added, along with improved electronics, to serve into the early 2020s. I would think at some point the SCFRS study would be replaced, and a new Frigate class built, probably in the 2010's as a 1 for 1 replacement of the Spruance DD's, almost certainly a faster design than the Perry, with twin screws, greater damage resistance, an RCS that isn't more fitting for a Battleship, 32-48 VLS cells, and an anti air capable Radar

Smaller craft. Pegasus class probably see 25-30 years of service and get planned upgrades. All 16 Cyclone class are probably built. Mine warfare fleet is probably just recapitalized with conventional designs, likely license built from another NATO members as keeping the REFORGER convoys running has predictable needs and mine warfare craft can be prepositioned for it

Attack subs. Seawolf class is built in greater numbers, maybe not the full 29 boats, but probably at least 20. A smaller class like the Virginia is still developed, to start building around 2010 as a general purpose boat rather than the specialist hunter killer of the Seawolf, though this *Virginia may have the 660mm tubes of the Seawolf to handle new munitions that may be developed. Not sure if the Sturgeons were retired early or not, if so they will be kept around until their reactors need refueling

Nuke boats. With an ongoing Cold War arms treaties are unlikely, so at least 20, possibly 24 Ohios get built. If 20 then a replacement boomer, probably still 24 tubes, but larger tubes, begins construction around 2005, if 24 then probably 2010 as the Ohios were planned for a 30 year lifespan
 
Where is the Last War TL? I think I've heard of it but I never got to read it.

What do you think of a NATO common armored vehicle platform in the 30-40 ton range for things like IFVs, APCs, artillery, SPAAGs, etc.? If the threat of a mechanized war persists into the 21st century, we might be seeing another round of armored vehicle development to start work on replacing everything that was introduced in the 1980s. The Heer, for example, is only now introducing a new IFV to replace their Marders. I imagine that might have happened a bit sooner in this scenario.

West Germany at least had been thinking about a common non-MBT platform. Thing is, I don‘t have any reliable sources. It‘s beena long time. The Marder would have been replaced by the Marder 2, armed with a 35mm/50mm autocannon and missiles and protected by laminated armor, fast enough to keep up with the panzer units, same as the PzH 2000, btw.

Anyway. Whoever is interested in The Last War should ask JN1 for details. Not my place to say anything if the God Emperor of TLW is a member on this site ;)
 
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2005/P7582.pdf

This talks about US force structure from a 1989 perspective, basically what the maximum sustainable force would be given budget constraints but assuming the Soviet threat would continue. Even if tensions hadn't been dropping in the late 80's, the 600-ship Navy and 18-division armies were probably bubbles that couldn't be sustained.

As far as cancelled projects, the biggest change in direction was 2000, not 1989. The Army was still trying to finish Cold War projects even with the constraints of the 1990's until Shinseki and the interim/objective Force concepts came along.
 
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