Modern East Turkmenistan?

[GreatElector]

I'm currently writing an adventure story, not so much alternative history. But I always refer to you guys for a plausibility check.

The premise of the story involves a rebellion of East Turkmenistan around the 2000s against China during a political crisis that left the Chinese government paralyzed (or dead, I haven't decided yet). It assumes the Hui join the Uyghurs as fellow Muslims in the rebellion and the Han population is complacent. and these rebels receive aid from Muslim nations and Russia (who wants to weaken China)

Of course this rebellion only lasts a year or a little more before its brutally put down by the resurgent China.

So is it possible? If you think my vague scenario doesn't work I always welcome recommendations to make it more realistic or if its plain impossible I welcome that analysis as well.

 

[Enigmajones]

Do you mean East Turkestan as in Xinjiang? Because last I checked the Uighurs hold no attachment to Turkmenistan.

I thought this was going to be about a civil war in Turkmenistan.

 

[Pellegrino]

I'm currently writing an adventure story, not so much alternative history. But I always refer to you guys for a plausibility check.

The premise of the story involves a rebellion of East Turkmenistan around the 2000s against China during a political crisis that left the Chinese government paralyzed (or dead, I haven't decided yet). It assumes the Hui join the Uyghurs as fellow Muslims in the rebellion and the Han population is complacent. and these rebels receive aid from Muslim nations and Russia (who wants to weaken China)

Of course this rebellion only lasts a year or a little more before its brutally put down by the resurgent China.

So is it possible? If you think my vague scenario doesn't work I always welcome recommendations to make it more realistic or if its plain impossible I welcome that analysis as well.

I think the rebels getting aid from Russia is somewhat far fetched. China and Russia had fair relations in the 90s and it is hard to see Russia supporting Muslim rebels when then are having so much trouble with their own Muslim regions. I'd change that part. Perhaps have Russia in the midst of a similar political crisis, which leads to poorly paid generals and troops selling their weapons on the black market to the rebels who perhaps get financial support from Saudi Arabia.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

I'd be fascinated in such a timeline, but I don't think the Hui are gonna join it. They are almost ethnically and culturally similar to the Han, with the only exception being religion. But hey- maybe ahistorical policies occur and the Hui aren't treated as so nicely, leading to a radicalized edge that would support the Uyghur. Sort of depends on what the changes are, exactly.

 

[EternalCynic]

It's East Turkestan. East Turkmenistan is the eastern part of the sovereign state of Turkmenistan.

The Hui will never ally with the Uyghur. The Hui are almost entirely assimilated into Chinese culture and are denounced by the Uyghur extremists as kafir and apostates.

As long as Chechnya is a problem, they can't rely on Russian help either. And with a post-911 PoD, the west won't allow a Central Asian republic to become a haven for Islamic militants.

It's plausible that a half-hearted NATO mission in Afghanistan leads to a resurgent Taliban (say Bush decides to remove the Taliban and arrest Al Qaida leaders, then leave ASAP), even more eager to host Islamic extremists to maintain its power. Or maybe Tajikistan relapses into civil war, becoming another hotbed for radical Islamists.

This leads to sporadic attacks on Chinese police stations and army posts in far western Xinjiang which are almost entirely Uyghur and impoverished. Eventually Chinese domestic pressure leads to a "limited" Chinese military intervention in Tajikistan, turning into China's mini-Vietnam after a few years.

 

[Enigmajones]

It's plausible that a half-hearted NATO mission in Afghanistan leads to a resurgent Taliban (say Bush decides to remove the Taliban and arrest Al Qaida leaders, then leave ASAP), even more eager to host Islamic extremists to maintain its power. Or maybe Tajikistan relapses into civil war, becoming another hotbed for radical Islamists.

This leads to sporadic attacks on Chinese police stations and army posts in far western Xinjiang which are almost entirely Uyghur and impoverished. Eventually Chinese domestic pressure leads to a "limited" Chinese military intervention in Tajikistan, turning into China's mini-Vietnam after a few years.

Even then you would need to butterfly away the modernization of China, so as to allow the country to come to a slower collapse.

 

[RousseauX]

Even then you would need to butterfly away the modernization of China, so as to allow the country to come to a slower collapse.

It doesn't, some sort of Uighur uprising which gets crushed in a year or two is pretty plausible for the 2000s.

If it happens: you won't even hear about it much because the Chinese government is pretty efficient at clamping on news coming out of Xinjiang.

 

[Jeb Bush]

Xinjiang lacks the terrain that makes a rebellion/insurgent plausible in Afghanistan. A rebellion that does happen wont last very long, even if the Taliban or other terrorist group helps them by sending weapons and fighters, the only ending is the rebellion is brutally crushed and all participants either flee or executed. Russia will not help since they are fighting an insurgency in Chechnya and any Central Asian country that helps with end up lucky to be the Turkish Autonomous region of the Peoples Republic of China after it is over

 

[ramones1986]

East Turkmenistan? You mean East Turkestan.

And it's impossible that the Hui will ally themselves with the Uyghurs, because they're ethnically Han (the only difference is the religion) and speaking a dialect of Northern (Mandarin) Chinese.

 

[YLi]

China wouldn't directly intervene in Tajikistan, they'd probably just support one or more factions with material goods.

 

[katchen]

And you would have to somehow butterfly away all the Han Chinese settlement that has occurred. Sinkiang is about half or more Han Chinese OTL right now and when the Uighurs rebel OTL they face a lot of Han communal violence before the State Security apparatus even gets started cracking down on them. The Han can be extremely cruel.
Right now, about the only part of Sinkiang that is majority Uighur, near as I can tell is an arc from Hotien east through Chiehmo to Charchan along the Kunlun Mountains. Maybe the Soche (Yarkand) area is still majority Uighur--the railroad from Kasghar to Hotien only opened in 2012. And of course the Kunlun Mountains are quite rugged--you'll want to look carefully at them on Google Maps. A rebellion would still be quite difficult even if the rebels got help from Al Qaeda and Laskhar e Taiba.
And the fact that the rebels got that help from within Pakistan would mean that a Chinese crackdown would butterfly into a major Chinese intervention into Pakistan and Afghanistan on the order of half a million troops escalating to over a million troops in order to crush the Taleban and Al Qaeda. as a direct threat to Chinese national security.

 

[Vingilótë]

By the 2000s, it's quite unlikely (for it to be successful, that is).

Now, if you push back your POD to the 20s or 30s, then the likelihood just increased sharply.

 

[EternalCynic]

By the 2000s, it's quite unlikely (for it to be successful, that is).

Now, if you push back your POD to the 20s or 30s, then the likelihood just increased sharply.

With that POD it's definitely possible Stalin engineers an East Turkestani SSR (or Democratic Republic), resulting in an independent Central Asian republic today. IOTL he ordered Laventry Beria to execute the leadership of the East Turkestani Islamic Republic in the Tsar's former Moscow stables when Mao was winning the Chinese Civil War.