Modern Day Taliban Ruled Afghanistan

Say bin laden remains in Sudan or is turned over by the Taliban

Would the Taliban be able to defeat the northern alliance

How much formal diplomatic recognition could they get by the present day and what would there foreign relations be like

Would they moderate or get more extreme or remain the same

Would large scale mining be likely by the present

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_in_Afghanistan
 
The Taliban are almost exclusively Pashtun and could have developed into something like a conservative Pashtun-nationalist group instead of an Islamist terrorist group. It really depends, as you've pointed out, on their behaviour towards Bin Laden and the other Arabs hiding in Afghanistan.

I see two problems though: (1) Pashtun hospitality prohibits handing over Bin Laden, and their traditional laws are really important for these people; (2) Taliban won't stop undermining Pakistani sovereignty in the NWFP/KP. Even though ISI played a role in the formation of the Taliban, the group's interests eventually clash with the interests of Pakistan. This will lead to tensions which make a moderation of the group less probable.
 
Taliban won't stop undermining Pakistani sovereignty in the NWFP/KP. Even though ISI played a role in the formation of the Taliban, the group's interests eventually clash with the interests of Pakistan. This will lead to tensions which make a moderation of the group less probable.
Would Pakistan end up backing the northern alliance or try to form/back another group
 
The Taliban are almost exclusively Pashtun and could have developed into something like a conservative Pashtun-nationalist group instead of an Islamist terrorist group. It really depends, as you've pointed out, on their behaviour towards Bin Laden and the other Arabs hiding in Afghanistan.

I see two problems though: (1) Pashtun hospitality prohibits handing over Bin Laden, and their traditional laws are really important for these people; (2) Taliban won't stop undermining Pakistani sovereignty in the NWFP/KP. Even though ISI played a role in the formation of the Taliban, the group's interests eventually clash with the interests of Pakistan. This will lead to tensions which make a moderation of the group less probable.
Not necessarily so. They were attempting exactly that for 3 years before 9/11.

https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.co...-light-on-early-taliban-offers-pakistan-role/

Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil, Taliban’s last foreign minister, told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview that his government had made several proposals to the United States to present the al-Qaeda leader, considered the mastermind of the 2001 attacks, for trial for his involvement in plots targeting US facilities during the 1990s.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2011/09/20119115334167663.html
 
Would most of the Shia population have been expelled, exterminated or forcibly converted by the present day
 

Ak-84

Banned
The Taliban would have gone or fractured by now. Pakistani support was already ebbing pre-9/11 in OTL.
Western analysts, never a bright bunch, (at least the ones who are assigned to S Asia) , fail to realise that Pakistan would have supported Kali worshippers if, said people were willing to keep the Western front quiet. If the Talibans could not get with the programme, ISI would find someone who would.
 
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