Mitt Romney decides against a 2012 presidential run

[Hnau]

This has a lot to do with current events, but really the POD would take place in 2008 shortly after the US presidential election, in which Romney decides that it is unlikely he has what it takes to be elected as President of the United States. He still raises campaign funds for fellow Republicans, he makes speeches and appears in the media, but he informs all of his supporters that he won't be gunning for the Republican nomination in 2012.

What this could mean is that he decides to run for Senator in Massachusetts in the special 2010 election... I'm thinking he would probably win. He still publishes a book. But he stays out of the 2012 election. What butterflies could we see by now? Who would be at the forefront of the race?

 

[Admiral Ackbar]

I wouldn't be so sure to say Romney wins the special Senate election in early 2010. Part of the appeal of Scott Brown, was he was seen as an everyman. "Hey guys, look at my truck." With the usual low turnout of special elections, an energized base can lead to a win, and the tea party was not enthusiastic about Romney.

I'd say the Presidential primary would be very similar, as the tea party takes turns with their candidates of the month, each one flaming out until it's Gingrich and Santorum left. Ron Paul still has his loyal supporters but they aren't enough to win, and Huntsman is seen as too moderate but he might pick up some of the OTL Romney voters. My guess is Pawlenty stays in the race and becomes the choice of the establishment and the eventual nominee.