Apart from TNF being as happy as a clam, what happens to the Senate leadership? Would Jon Kyl get it? This would bring the Democrats up to 60 in the Senate. Let's assume that the extra 6% means Obama won more nationally. Saxby Chambliss went down as well, and Al Franken doesn't need a recount. Arlen Specter would think it's an even better idea to switch. That gives the Democrats a comfy 63-37 in the Senate. How would the Senate Republicans fight Obama? Assuming he gets the job, Kyl seems more likely to drive moderate Republicans away than McConnel's Machiavellian successes.
Mitch McConnell goes down in 2008
- Thread starter Plumber
- Start date
Kyl is a savvy negotiator and tactician like McConnell. In this scenario it will be a return to pre-1994 practice: the only brake on Obama's agenda are the moderate Senate Democrats (Pelosi will have an iron grip on her caucus as per OTL) like Ben Nelson, Max Baucus, Joe Lieberman and the Southerners. They can still kill the public option if they want, but if things go similarly to OTL then the GOP might slightly outpace their OTL 2010 results.
Single payer is done for still, yeah? IIRC, Obama spoke of it in order to compromise it away.
Nelsons, Conrad, Baucus, Lieberman, Landrieu, Hagan, Pryor, Warner, McCaskill, Tester, DiFi, Dorgan, Bayh, Lincoln... the list goes on.
Moderate Democrats who were against the public option, forget single payer.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
There is a public option in the affordable care act. The Bush tax cut expires. t The Dream Act is passed. DADT dies six months sooner. This is one of my favorite TLs.
Not that this has much to do with the OP which is focused on what will happen in the senate, but the implications for Kentucky politics in 2010 and 2011 would be interesting. I'm not sure that Mitch would just retire from state politics after two decades there. Remember, for Republicans in Kentucky he's pretty much King Mitch, and I don't think he'll want to lose that sway. So he could attempt a comeback in 2010, assuming Jim Bunning even retires in this timeline, handily defeating Rand Paul in the primary and, presumably, winning the general election as well. Or, if he decided to forego that race, he could mount a challenge to Governor Beshear in 2011 and at least make that race interesting. I honestly think that he could probably win either election with certain butterflies.
Actually, come to think of it even if the 2010 Senate race looks exactly the same as it does in OTL I think Rand Paul would lose the nomination as Trey Grayson wouldn't be able to run such a complacent campaign. If he actually shows up on the trail he could have won that race easily.
Interesting question....so many butterflies.
Actually, come to think of it even if the 2010 Senate race looks exactly the same as it does in OTL I think Rand Paul would lose the nomination as Trey Grayson wouldn't be able to run such a complacent campaign. If he actually shows up on the trail he could have won that race easily.
Interesting question....so many butterflies.
SonOfFreedom
Banned
Trey Grayson's goose would be as good as cooked regardless if it would be Mitch or Rand in 2010. The Tea Party was rising because of the work Rand's dad was doing. Franken lost so he used the courts to steal the election. So we'd like that seat back.
I don't think most of these moderate democrats RogueBeaver listed above would be opposed to EFCA. That could probably pass.
Actually you probably have as much opposition to EFCA. Lincoln and Pryor are both out, since Walmart is based in Arkansas. Specter voiced reluctance to support it as well. Nelson, Lunsford, Martin and Baucus will be swing votes as well. It's also not entirely fair to look at the 2007 vote. There was no chance of passage, so it was simply an opportunity for the Democrats to show their support for organized labor and Republicans a chance to balk at it. The biggest effect of 63 Dems might be a bigger stimulus. Nelson has less leverage to chop it down. That could help mitigate the effects of the recession and lower unemployment by a little bit. Other legislation that could get passed would be a FY11 budget and maybe another round of fiscal stimulus that year.
It's quite likely, though, that the public option is traded for an option to buy in to Medicare early, as it nearly was OTL until Joe "Primary me, will they? I'll show those hippies. I'll show them all!" Lieberman torpedoed it.
usertron2020
Donor
SonOfFreedom believes in Fair Play
SonOfFreedom
Since you have such a wonderful rep on the forum for independence and fair mindedness...
Then I'm sure that if you believe that Al Franken lost the three way election in Minnesota and stole the election in the courts, then you must equally believe that George W. Bush is the greatest thief of all time...
FYI? A few months after Bush II was inaugurated, a final recount in Florida was done. By the strictest standards of what constituted a legal ballot (the standard the Bush campaign demanded) Gore won by 3 votes. So I am certain you are suitably outraged to learn this?
SonOfFreedom
Since you have such a wonderful rep on the forum for independence and fair mindedness...
Then I'm sure that if you believe that Al Franken lost the three way election in Minnesota and stole the election in the courts, then you must equally believe that George W. Bush is the greatest thief of all time...
FYI? A few months after Bush II was inaugurated, a final recount in Florida was done. By the strictest standards of what constituted a legal ballot (the standard the Bush campaign demanded) Gore won by 3 votes.
So I am certain you are suitably outraged to learn this?usertron2020
Donor
Ned Lamont had serious problems, but Lieberman never would have had a chance save for the GOP Alan Schlesinger being so unelectable in the Nutmeg State.
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Orville_third
Banned
And the Republican party abandoning him to campaign for the guy who had run along with the President's opponent...all to defend Iraq and increased state surveillance.
And it's NED Lamont.
usertron2020
Donor
(1)Well, I took it for granted that everyone already knew Lieberman was W's guy.
(2) Fixed. Thank you.
SonOfFreedom
Since you have such a wonderful rep on the forum for independence and fair mindedness...
Then I'm sure that if you believe that Al Franken lost the three way election in Minnesota and stole the election in the courts, then you must equally believe that George W. Bush is the greatest thief of all time...
FYI? A few months after Bush II was inaugurated, a final recount in Florida was done. By the strictest standards of what constituted a legal ballot (the standard the Bush campaign demanded) Gore won by 3 votes.
And as I recall, a final recount was also done using the standard that Gore demanded - and Gore lost. Nice strawman response to SOF's non sequitur comment BTW.