Mississippi Rice (timeline)

[tormsen]

I'll play avocado diaboli if you don't mind...
Interesting but somewhat unreaistic, seems to me. Wild rice is good, of course but you need several more millenia to have the locals get the idea of its domestification. Your initial supposition of such an early rice horticulture really looks ASBish. Why? Because until later times even after the arriva of the Europeans, Northamerican indians gathered rice growing in wild. They never raised it, or I am mistaken badly.

It is true that it was never raised in the wild, I just don't think it's ASB to suppose it couldn't have been. There were attempts by Indians to cultivate it (rolling it in balls of clay and dropping it in water), they came to nothing for a variety of reasons but mostly due to the ease in which the stands shattered. Wild rice agriculture in the 19th century suffered the identical problem, until a shatter-resistant cultiver was discovered. This has led, in OTL, to the expansion of wild rice agriculture. In my TL, a shatter-resistant cultiver is discovered at a much earlier point. In my opinion, it is unlikely set of events, but no less likely than the OTL history of maize. Mostly, it's that stuff that happened in OTL happens earlier, and is much more successful. On the basis of the crop itself and its potential I don't believe that it is ASB.

There was no populational pressure, even in Missisippan culture, and thus no need in domestification of rice. Especially when by 8th century AD there already had been in pace the main culture, zonated maiz. Rice is a very capricious cuture and is reasonably hard to raise. It will require communal works on irrigation and thus you will get societies close to early Chinese or eary Sumer.

Maize wa never developed from teosinte in this timeline. The Megalopotamians are not Mississippians, they diverged millenia earlier during the Archaic period. The early Chinese and early Sumer is roughly the model I am using for their development, and you're right, communal irrigation works are indeed required.

The most necessary task is to direct the initial waves of American colonisation to the region of Missisipi several millenia earlier simply to give the locas enough time to build civilisation here. The region in OTL was populated comaratively late because the waves of colonisation moved two ways - along Kordiliera down south and a much weaker one - to the east in Canada north from Great Plains. It were Great Plains ans deserts and semideserts to the south of them that prevented Stome Age colonists to get to the Missisipi fast en masse.
That's really the most promising region of all Americas but, as I said, it was colonised too late. And maiz, very sensitive to the length of the day, got there too late to let the agricultural civilizations in the region get on their feet and harden. When De Sotto got there, it was still in the epoch of early competing polices.
Jared Diamond, read him. His expanations look very solid.

That's an interesting idea, and makes sense. I may have to address something like that in the timeline, though I'll have to look more into the climate and geography of the early colonisation period. I am afraid that messing with that would stretch plausibility in terms of the Old World remaining uneffected though. Still, butterfly trap is useful. Perhaps things would be better if I'd included both wild rice agriculture without removing maize, but I liked the idea of removing Mesoamerican civilization and was afraid of opening myself up to accusations of Amerindian-wank.

My point is mainly that while I concede wild rice agriculture at such an early point is a low-probability event, I don't believe that it is of such low probability to require the introduction of outside influence. No aliens, divine interventions, shipwrecked Phoenicians, ISOTed agricultural equipment or magic is needed for the success of wild rice agriculture, so I object slightly to the label ASB.

That said, I always appreciate a good avocado diaboli.

 

[tormsen]

The map helps. Catherine dieing instead of Arthur!

Yeah, I've got butterflies all over the place at the moment, I think that life and death is something extremely subject to random chance, so things are going to progress in very different directions from OTL.

Great Installment, what Language to the names for your Amerindian cities come from and what are the translations lol? How far has the plague spread into the interior of North America?

Millenia of divergance has meant the languages of TTL North America are very divergant from OTL in terms of usage as well as geographical spread. I've been using Iroquoian, Algonquian and Muskogean language as inspiration for the making up of the city names. Basically, the names I use should be viewed as the most common spelling of the names as of 2008 ITTL. Basically, I'm making a lot of that side of it up as I go and handwaving it as linguistic drift, European (mis)interpretation and latter-day academic revision.

 

[Caesar]

Very interesting. I'd like to see more of this.

 

[Stalker]

I don't really think you need to prevent Mesoamerican culture from raising to comply with somebody's wishes. Mesomerica by itself is destinied to become a cradle of a civilization. It's going to be, of course, a very different culture by its ethnical composition but I doubt it's going to be that very different in the way of its religious cults and ways of development (I'll try to support that point of view later). Even if Tenocha and Tlaxcalans' ancestors might move quite in a different direction in this TL. For exampe, from North Mexico to Florida aong the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. So, if we leave Mesoamerican culture in place regardless of whatever its ethnical composition is, you'll have maize, and you may introduce maize as supplementary culture, say, in OTL terms (by 7-8 cent. AD). There's really no Amerind wank if you can outline plausible way of much earlier colonisation of lands between Eastern coastine and Missisipi and Ohio valleys up to Great Lakes. Why you may need diversity supplementary cultures? It's good to see the rise of the Great Lakes culture - and wild rice cannot support it because it's very hard to cultivate rice in such a climatic condition even if it grows there in the wild. You'll need cereals - barley and maize. I don't know if native American barley is suitable for making any kind of bread but it's certainly may be brewed or fermentised. I'd like to see an alternate Haudenosauni League rising in the region, strong and agressive - vikings of America raiding on Missisipian Gardariki.
So, we simply need earlier start in the region and nothing more - all the rest is just the matter of historic development.
1 millenium earlier is good. Two - still better. Three is even excessive. This region is no less promicing for the rise of civilisation than Europe by itself. It has everything - moderate climate, great natural resources, various ores, some species (bisons) suitabe for domestification - everything. What it had lacked in our history was simply that humants arrived here too late to keep pace with the Od World. Even Mesoamerica which has much less resorces and space for agriculture and requires huge efforts to maintain civiisation, was able to move to Copper Age. What can we say about North-Eastern Civilisational Centre? In Russian AH-Board, I and several my colleagues have been trying to solve the problem of that Centre, and there were many interesting suggestions from ASB to much more reaistic ones. That's why your TL attracts me so much.

 

[JohnJacques]

Wild rice is as plausible as teosinte- heck, there seem to be more barriers to teosinte domestication, looking back.

 

[john]

I don't see why you couldn't have maize domesticated in mexico area as per otl, but also have a wild rice culture develop further north. When the 2 spheres of agriculture meet and start trading it will strengthen both and perhaps drive even greater innovation.
Could the domesticated bison perhaps pull a plow type implement?
Great timeline btw, enjoying reading it.

 

[fortyseven]

I don't see why you couldn't have maize domesticated in mexico area as per otl, but also have a wild rice culture develop further north. When the 2 spheres of agriculture meet and start trading it will strengthen both and perhaps drive even greater innovation.

Me neither. It would be analogous to North China (wheat, barley) and South China (rice).

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

How does cultivating rice in the Americas affect the survival of the Roman Empire? There was no contact with the Americas until after the events has been set in motion which destroyed the empire. If somehow you do butterfly all this away, the chances of the same dynasty being in charge as OTL seem unbelivably slim.

This is a great TL, but I think you need to rein it in a lot.

 

[JohnJacques]

What are the sweataches, exactly?

Just a simple web search finds brucellosis, known as undulate fever, as a common disease in bison. People who have contact in the birthing of bison could be infected, as well as anyone drinking the milk (likely uncommon) Don't know the origins, although UWyo identifies it as a wildlife disease.

This has a section on brucellosis:
http://www.uwyo.edu/enr/ienr/GYA/Elk_BisonInfoPacket.pdf

And here's the wiki on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brucella_abortus

 

[Nova]

How does cultivating rice in the Americas affect the survival of the Roman Empire? There was no contact with the Americas until after the events has been set in motion which destroyed the empire. If somehow you do butterfly all this away, the chances of the same dynasty being in charge as OTL seem unbelivably slim.

This is a great TL, but I think you need to rein it in a lot.

I think he has the Roman Empire meeting the same fate it did OTL, except the French have purchased the title. It exists in name only.

Wouldn't the American domestication of animals mean that American diseases would also be carried back to Spain by Pinzon? Shouldn't pandemics be sweeping through Europe as well as the OTL Americas?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

What are the sweataches, exactly?

Just a simple web search finds brucellosis, known as undulate fever, as a common disease in bison. People who have contact in the birthing of bison could be infected, as well as anyone drinking the milk (likely uncommon) Don't know the origins, although UWyo identifies it as a wildlife disease.

This has a section on brucellosis:
http://www.uwyo.edu/enr/ienr/GYA/Elk_BisonInfoPacket.pdf

And here's the wiki on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brucella_abortus

from http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/119279659/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
we have "All lines of inquiry indicated that the organism was introduced to North America with cattle, and that the introduction into the Yellowstone bison probably was directly from cattle shortly before 1917. Fistulous withers of horses was a less likely possibility."
Of course, there must be some native diseases, possibly insignificant now because the bison are semi-immune, but which might cross over to humans.

 

[JohnJacques]

But that date for transmission is very close to the date of the bacterium's discovery- and its after a big culling of the buffalo population.

 

[tormsen]

I think he has the Roman Empire meeting the same fate it did OTL, except the French have purchased the title. It exists in name only.

The purchase of the title is an OTL event, it's just that in OTL Charles VIII died before he could claim it. I believe it eventually was sold to Ferdinand of Aragon but I'll have to check that. It's just a title, anyway, the actual situation for the ERE is the same as OTL. For now, Charles VIII has let success get to his head a bit and he might try something silly later.

Wouldn't the American domestication of animals mean that American diseases would also be carried back to Spain by Pinzon? Shouldn't pandemics be sweeping through Europe as well as the OTL Americas?

Yep, thats the sweataches, and it's going to have an effect (more on Africa than on Europe, however). But my Megalopotamians have been living with animals for less time than Eurasia, and there's less of them, and they really only live with bison. That means that the sweataches are going to be the only major Amerind disease to affect the Old World (other than siphilis and such).

It was going to be based on brucellosis but if that originated in the Old World that might not work.

 

[tormsen]

Removing maize is really mainly a stylistic choice more than anything else. I think that with both successful maize and wild rice agriculture, the Americas would be much more advanced, perhaps similar to BANW. I want my Megalopotamians to be still in the copper age, and for there to be nothing much of importance in Mexico. It's going to make European colonisation more interesting.

Also maize had huge effects in OTL, largely replacing the old Eastern Agricultural Complex crops in North America. I wish for the Megalopotamians to continue to use those crops, unlike how in OTL they were neglected and are now considered weeds. Maygrass and little barley can be used to make flour, so I suppose they could be made into bread. The PoD is not only the success of wild rice agriculture but also the upgrade of the EAC from what was really mostly just horticulture to bone fide agriculture.

 

[tormsen]

The survival of Charles VIII was largely caused by butterfly effects from the New World (I set up a butterfly net around the New World, Vikings notwithstanding, until the return of Pinzon). This is not my strongest period of history and its kinda new to me, but I hope the following is not entirely implausible.

Charles VIII and the Italian Wars

Charles VIII is known in history for his aggressive foreign adventuring, dreams of grandeur and his neglect of domestic politics and accruement of a severe national debt for France. His earlier failures in Italy were redeemed by his later, more sober and experienced efforts which would see French domination of the Italian peninsula. The death of his only surviving son and his own near-death following an accident playing tennis encouraged a new frugality in the monarch, as he sought to cut out frivolities, relieve the tax burden on the people and once more stake his claim over Naples.

The treachery of the Milanese had infuriated Charles, who possessed a claim to the throne of that state as well as for Naples. Charles was, however, determined not to be trapped by an alliance of nations such as the League of Venice again. A rapprochement with Alexander VI (who had been rebuffed in his attempts to wed his son Cesare Borgia to the daughter of the Frederick of Naples) empowered Charles to form an alliance with the Venetians and Swiss and invade the duchy of Milan (and later, Naples).

French success emboldened Alexander to push Cesare to carve out his own kingdom in the north. Charles VIII was becoming more and more obsessed with the idea of a crusade against the Turk, this helped to lessen the perceived threat of French domination of Italy. While Cesare occupied himself and the attention of the Pope in central Italy, France struggled ultimately to victory with Spain in southern Italy. This period saw the disgrace of the formerly favored general Gonzalo Fernando de Cordoba, who would not regain his former status until the Castillian dynastic struggle several years later. Spain withdrew from Italy and was occupied for a time with its New World discoveries and its own domestic squabbling (particularly following the death of Isabella in 1504).

Things came to a head after the death of Alexander IV in 1505, allegedly of poisoning. Fresh from conquest of Tuscany, Cesare Borgia found himself subject to the papal censure of his enemy, Giuliano della Rovere who had become the new pope Julius II. The new pope turned on both France and Borgia with gusto, but this was an error. French troops and mercenaries in Italy had been unpaid for some time due to lack of French funds, while Borgia feared for his life. The French-supported candidate Georges d’Amboise aspired to the papacy and resented della Rovere.

This combination of events saw the unprecedented sacking of Rome and its environs by French troops and the death (officially by accident) of Julius II. Georges d’Amboise rose to power as Pope Pius III. With Spain distracted, France now held sway over Italy, while the Borgia’s maintained secular strength in central Italy. The death of Charles VIII in 1506 of the Sweataches and the rise of Louis, duke of Orleans, to the regency was perhaps well timed. The period of the pradmatic duke of Orleans regency of France saw a period of consolidation as the regent dealt with hostile French nobles and a weakened French economy. As the infant Orlando I (born 1499) grew, he would come to power over a strong France (as well as Milan and Naples), which would soon face the growing threat of unified Spain to the south.

 

[tormsen]

Some things I need to consider

What's in a name

I am creating new names for most of the New World. As Columbus died a relatively early death in Hispaniola, it will be the Pinzons that are most readily associated with early New World exploration. Amerigo Vespucci will be honoured by a German cartographer as in OTL, but only for the eastern coastline of what we call North America, north of Temegua and east of the Appalachians. The North American continent I'd like to name after the Pinzons, but, well, Pinzonia sounds kinda silly. Is there a Latin form of the last name Pinzon I use that sounds better? Or should I use one of their first names: Vincent Yanez, Martin Alonso? Gah, it's kinda annoying.

Slavery

In OTL, the introduction of maize to Africa led to a population boost to West Africa, which created a large population in which to capture slaves from. ITTL, instead of a new and bumper crop, West Africa will be enjoying the new zootropic disease of the Sweataches which will do quite well in warm Africa (rather more so than in Europe). This combination of events will have the effect of lowering the population of West Africa. How will this effect the viability of trans-Atlantic slavery? The Spanish will import some slaves, but it will become easier to use Amerind slaves in some areas (not in the Caribbean, but enough will survive in North America to make Amerind slaves more economic than Africans). In other areas of colonisation by other powers, assuming a dearth of native labour, what is the slave trade likely to be like in this TL?

 

[Alratan]

Slavery

In OTL, the introduction of maize to Africa led to a population boost to West Africa, which created a large population in which to capture slaves from. ITTL, instead of a new and bumper crop, West Africa will be enjoying the new zootropic disease of the Sweataches which will do quite well in warm Africa (rather more so than in Europe). This combination of events will have the effect of lowering the population of West Africa. How will this effect the viability of trans-Atlantic slavery?

Remember, the early slave trade started with the Europeans buying slaves from the established slave markets on the African west coast, tapping into the surplus from the existing practice of enslaving defeated enemies. If West Africa is experiencing population contraction, there will be no slave surplus. Slaves willl thus be vastly more expensive to buy, and there is much less likely to be a functioning market, as captured slaves will be too useful to be sold.

This is also likely to lead to the collapse of the Trans-Saharan slave and general trade, with significant effects on North African history. The economies and militaries of these powers were quite dependent on this (see the Black Guard as an example of the extent of the trade) and a weaker North Africa will lead to greater European success there. Success builds on success, and you could easily see a much earlier suppression of the Barbary pirates, leading to a significant boost for the Med's maritime powers, and general economic development on the north coast of the Med.

The Spanish will import some slaves, but it will become easier to use Amerind slaves in some areas (not in the Caribbean, but enough will survive in North America to make Amerind slaves more economic than Africans). In other areas of colonisation by other powers, assuming a dearth of native labour, what is the slave trade likely to be like in this TL?

Recall that the reason West African slaves were preferred to European ones in the early days was greater survivability in the tropics. If this advantage is eroded compared to OTL as newly arrived slaves of all ethnicities are likely to catch the sweataches, then Amerindian and Old World slaves from outside Africa are likely to be more popular, simply due to the logistics. If my prediction of greater European success in North Africa comes to pass, then I'd predict significant numbers of Arab/Berber slaves would be transported.

Generally, the effect will be to reduce the rate at which wealth can be initially extracted from the New World, and to make colonisation relatively more attractive.

 

[Condottiero]

Slavery

In OTL, the introduction of maize to Africa led to a population boost to West Africa, which created a large population in which to capture slaves from. ITTL, instead of a new and bumper crop, West Africa will be enjoying the new zootropic disease of the Sweataches which will do quite well in warm Africa (rather more so than in Europe). This combination of events will have the effect of lowering the population of West Africa. How will this effect the viability of trans-Atlantic slavery? The Spanish will import some slaves, but it will become easier to use Amerind slaves in some areas (not in the Caribbean, but enough will survive in North America to make Amerind slaves more economic than Africans). In other areas of colonisation by other powers, assuming a dearth of native labour, what is the slave trade likely to be like in this TL?

The use of african slaves was a consequence of the Controversial of Valladolid between Las Casas and Sepúlveda. If african slaves are not available, north african ones would be used. But never amerindians, as they were protected by the crown.

Something that favoured the spanish expansion in Mexico and the Andean region was the existence of organized states, are we going to see ITTL an spanish expansion in North America?

 

[Alratan]

The use of african slaves was a consequence of the Controversial of Valladolid between Las Casas and Sepúlveda. If african slaves are not available, north african ones would be used. But never amerindians, as they were protected by the crown.

As IOTL the Controversy ended without a clear conclusion, the greater economic value of Amerindian slaves could well lead to de Sepuldeva winning the debate, the Spanish king ignoring the debate, or the slavery issue never being raised. IOTL African slaves were availiable as a cheap replacement, and without them I can't see the Spanish economicaly shooting themselves in the foot in such a way.

Something that favoured the spanish expansion in Mexico and the Andean region was the existence of organized states, are we going to see ITTL an spanish expansion in North America?

True, but ITTL North Africa might be a greater diversion the IOTL, and the Mississipi dosen't have much in the way of precious metals. More organised state may just mean that other Atlantic powers get in on the conquistador act sooner than IOTL.

 

[Condottiero]

As IOTL the Controversy ended without a clear conclusion, the greater economic value of Amerindian slaves could well lead to de Sepuldeva winning the debate, the Spanish king ignoring the debate, or the slavery issue never being raised. IOTL African slaves were availiable as a cheap replacement, and without them I can't see the Spanish economicaly shooting themselves in the foot in such a way.

IOTL the debate was a draw. I am not sure what they would have decided in case there were no african slaves available but I do not think they would have accepted indian slavery: after all the question was raised because they saw that amerindian slavery only led to the death of the amerindians! I think that probably the spanish crown would have started using north african slaves.