Missing the Giants: A Timeline without FDR or Winston Churchill

New York Times: December 14, 1931:

British Statesman Killed In Auto Accident

The British statesman Winston Churchill, former First Lord of the Admiralty and Chancellor of the Exchequer, was run down and killed yesterday evening by a taxi driving northbound while he crossing Fifth Avenue in Manhatten. Churchill was rushed to New York Hospital but was pronounced dead upon arrival from head injuries sustained when he was flung head first against the fender of a parked car. The taxi driver, identified as Mario Contasino of Yonkers, was held by police for questioning in this incident.

Winston Churchill was born on November 30, 1874, son of the British statesman Lord Randolph Churchill and the former Jenny Jerome, a citizen of the United States ...



New York Times, February 16, 1933:

PRESIDENT-ELECT ROOSEVELT ASSASSINATED IN MIAMI;
GARNER TO BE PRESIDENT.

President-elect Franklin Delano Roosevelt was shot and killed yesterday by Giusseppe Zangara in Miami, Florida, as he was giving an impromptu speech ...

...Vice President elect John Nance Garner will become President on Inauguration Day. President Hoover has ordered extra Secret Service protection for Mr. Garner ...
 
New York Times, November 5, 1936:

GARNER DEFEATS LANDON;
LARGE VOTE FOR BORAH;
PROGRESSIVES TRAIL

President John Nance Garner was easily re-elected yesterday, swamping Republican nominee Alfred Landon in the electoral vote. However, Garner won with fewer votes than Franklin D. Roosevelt received in 1932, as the Share our Wealth Party, headed by Senator William E. Borah of Idaho, was expected to win nearly four million votes nationwide when all votes have been counted, and carried Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Had Senator Huey Long of Louisiana run as its Presidential candidate, as supposed, the Share our Wealth Party In addition, the newly reborn Progressive Party, led by former Secretary of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace into a merger with most of the Socialist Party, is expected to receive about two million votes but carried no states. However, the Progressives, endorsed by Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia, ran second in New York City to Garner's Democrats.

Both the Share our Wealth and Progressive Parties criticized the Garner Administration for taking insufficient action against the Great Depression. Although there has been some reduction in unemployment since 1933, one out of five workers remains without a job.

In the meantime, the Republican candidate criticized President Garner for "excessive" federal spending and large deficits. The centerpiece of Garner's economic program has been a large public works projects financed by federal government bonds. The government has also increased support for agriculture. The Republican of Landon and Knox had limited appeal and could not carry even all of the states won by Herbert Hoover in 1932, as Pennsylvania shifted to the Democratic ticket. Indeed, the GOP won fewer states or electoral votes than even the Share our Wealth Party, although finishing well ahead in popular votes.

Despite the criticism from Left and Right, the ticket of President Garner and his Vice Presidential nominee, Senator Alben Barkley of Kentucky, won in most regions of the country and carried most states.

As of 2 am, the popular vote count was as follows:

Garner, Democrat: 16,784,366
Landon, Republican: 10,218,276
Borah, Share our Wealth: 3,312,287
Wallace, Progressive: 1,524,274
Foster, Communist: 189,372



 
New York Times
August 1, 1940

BRITAIN SIGNS PEACE TREATY WITH GERMANY
HALIFAX AND HITLER HAIL QUICK END TO WAR





New York Times

November 6, 1940

BARKLEY WINS NARROWLY;
DEWEY CARRIES STATE;
HEAVY VOTE FOR LONG

Vice President Alben W. Barkley was elected President by a narrow margin over Thomas E. Dewey of New York. Share our Wealth candidate, Senator Huey Long of Louisiana, received nearly ten million votes nationwide and carried several states in the south and west of the nation.

With 70% of all votes counted, the Barkley-Willkie ticket had received approximately 15,000,000 votes. The Dewey-Taft ticket had received 13,000,000 votes. The Long-Wheeler ticket was at 8,000,000 votes.

In the meantime, Dewey carried New York State by approximately 200,000 votes.


 
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Halifax will sign a treaty with Hitler
After the peace treaty with the UK
Germany will attack the USSR with more resources and less distractions
Consider Soviet Casualties to be 40-50 Million rather than 25-30 Million
May will mean the end of Stalin. Probabile stalemate in USSR

Japan will loose to USA quicker as USA is fully commited without worrying about Germany

USA will not be interested in waging war against Germany. No base in Europe and would get in he way of making money
 
Halifax will sign a treaty with Hitler
After the peace treaty with the UK
Germany will attack the USSR with more resources and less distractions
Consider Soviet Casualties to be 40-50 Million rather than 25-30 Million
May will mean the end of Stalin. Probabile stalemate in USSR

Japan will loose to USA quicker as USA is fully commited without worrying about Germany

USA will not be interested in waging war against Germany. No base in Europe and would get in he way of making money

I think this is a pretty good set of predictions ... although I am still not sure if the US and Japan will go at it in this TL.
 
Halifax

Whether or not he signed a treaty would probably depend on (a) How much aid he expected from the US, and (b)How much he was able to get from the Ultra intercepts.

Point A: Britain couldn't fight on alone without US financial help and without the US giving the British weapons that the US really could have used, like the 500,000-odd small arms they sent shortly after France fell. Historically the Brits ran out of money in early 1941, and would have been unable to continue the war without Lend-Lease. Churchill was willing to gamble that the US would come through when the Brits ran out of money. Halifax may or may not have been willing to risk that.

I'm not even entirely sure that even with Roosevelt in charge the US would have supported a Britain led by Halifax to the extent they did one led by Churchill. Churchill's defiance of Hitler left little doubt that Britain would fight if they had the means. A less inspiring leader might have left enough doubt about that to make the US decide that equipment sent to Britain was likely to end up in the hands of the Germans, and that the US should keep it to build up their own army.

Point B: Churchill knew from the Ultra intercepts that the Germans were having trouble getting Sealion organized, and that as a result there was no immediate necessity to sue for peace. Churchill was a great fan of secret intelligence and took it seriously. Halifax might not have understood the significance or believed it.

A lot depends on the nature of the man. Was Halifax an inspiring leader? Did he have the nerves to gamble that German didn't have something up their sleeves and that the US would come through? I don't know. Probably should research the man.
 
New York Times, November 5, 1936:

GARNER DEFEATS LANDON;
LARGE VOTE FOR BORAH;
PROGRESSIVES TRAIL

President John Nance Garner was easily re-elected yesterday, swamping Republican nominee Alfred Landon in the electoral vote. However, Garner won with fewer votes than Franklin D. Roosevelt received in 1932, as the Share our Wealth Party, headed by Senator William E. Borah of Idaho, was expected to win nearly four million votes nationwide when all votes have been counted, and carried Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Louisiana. Had Senator Huey Long of Louisiana run as its Presidential candidate, as supposed, the Share our Wealth Party [?] In addition, the newly reborn Progressive Party, led by former Secretary of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace into a merger with most of the Socialist Party, is expected to receive about two million votes but carried no states. However, the Progressives, endorsed by Mayor Fiorello LaGuardia, ran second in New York City to Garner's Democrats.

...

As of 2 am, the popular vote count was as follows:

Garner, Democrat: 16,784,366
Landon, Republican: 10,218,276
Borah, Share our Wealth: 3,312,287
Wallace, Progressive: 1,524,274
Foster, Communist: 189,372
Seems to be missing part of a sentence in the first paragraph where I have underlined.

Otherwise, interesting!
 
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