If the Philippine neutrality got respected in ww2 and they didnt involve themselves in that mess, how would it affect the balance of power in asia, and how would it affect them economically, and all other effects of it (As IOTL their neutrality is trashed by the USA as Japan agrees to their neutrality). because in this TL they got independent in 1939 and just be like sweeden who traded with both sides and stayed neutral in ww2.
Miscellaneous >1900 (Alternate) History Thread
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McPherson
Banned
See previous answer. Geography matters. And Philippine geography, as in being in the wrong place and wrong time in a huge naval war, is why "neutrality" is not going to happen then or NOW. I suggest reading Alfred Mahan and Sun Tzu for why.
Sweden as the counter example is not in the direct vector path of two sea-powers bent on killing each other and planning to do so. Norway was "neutral" and is a better Philippine Islands geography type example. IT, that nation, was in the geographic vector path of two "sea powers" (In my opinion incompetent.) who wanted to kill each other. What happened to Norway? It was stomped. Post that experience, they picked a side and they have been most enthusiastic about that side, ever since.
The Philippine Islands polity should study their own history and lesson learn.
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Why was corruption so prevalent in Russia and the USSR? Why were anti-corruption efforts there usually failures? This does not seem to be just a recent problem...
Stalinism (aka crony communism) rewarded crooks and liars and punished honest people, hard.
Tell Planning Committee the real output numbers for your factory? Your quota gets doubled next year. Lie about them, exactly meet quota, and sell the extra on the black market? Get rewarded with Party membership. Expose corruption by your factory boss doing the above, but he's a Party member? Ignored, and next time he can't meet quota, you get blamed as a wrecker and sent to gulag. People figured this out real quick, and settled into a hierarchy of ants and anteaters.
[ Don't even get me started about fucking Lysenko, I hope he's eating thistles in Hell. ]
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McPherson
Banned
Is it not ironic, that American wheat farmers prospered from Nikolai Vavilov's work after WWII?
Sorry for the late reply.
OTL Soviet advance in 31st December 1944.
Originally, Austria will be integrated to Germany, but the Allies oppose it. Czechoslovakia is separated.
Oh yeah, for Poland, I don't remember why they separated into West and East Poland, its an old stuff.
Bucharest Pact consist of East Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
Driftless
Donor
It would take some country with a larger navy, with SW Pacific bases, and a desire to expand their empire. 1900 to 1914 (besides UK and France) that would include Germany and on paper, the US. I can't see Russia jumping in. Austria-Hungary had their hands full in Europe and no bases anywhere outside of the Adriatic.
Next, what plausible P.O.D. needs to be contrived for that event to happen?
McPherson
Banned
The Dutch refuse to cooperate in suppressing the Sulu Sultanate's piracy and slave trade. It nearly happened.
Perhaps, even if it would require bigger changes to Netherlands' foreign policy... But, what about a close alliance with Prussia and later with Germany/Central Powers in the WWI?
Driftless
Donor
I hadn't considered that option. That thought opens a whole can-o-worms, doesn't it? Neither France nor Britain would like a Netherlands/CP alliance. Of course, the Dutch would probably realize that going the CP might well write off the DEI. The British/Australia/New Zealand make a play for New Guinea and Sumatra Java and whatever else they can get to? What do the French go after? The Japanese (as British allies) will occupy some turf too, just as they did in the Central Pacific. Do they make a move against Borneo, or???
Indeed, but we're considering very specific, even if contrived circumstances that could help to arrive to asked scenario that of course would lead to bigger changes on its own..
Well, of course, that neither of them would have liked a Dutch-Prussian/German Alliance... Cause it would mean, in the British case, the possibility of potentially hostile naval bases on the other side of English coasts, near of the River Thames estuary while for the French and Belgian (which would be near totally surrounded), would force both of them, with the British approval, to join in a mutual military alliance.
About the DEI, an alliance of this kind could, also granted to the imperial fleet bases there along with possibilities, and beside of the more than probable, (in case of full alliance) interfleet collaboration and preparation, the German financial and/or technical assistance to increase the Dutch fleet...
Well, even in the event of war and that Britain would have needed the Japanese help, beyond the assistance/collaboration against any possible DEI based German (and in this scenario, Dutch's, too?) raiders... I doubt that the Royal Navy, would have agreed, to any first rater naval power, would be allowed to get so valuable and strategic territories so near of Singapore and close to the India...
McPherson
Banned
The Americans. Either they get a Dutch alliance defacto or it becomes most unpleasant in the Sulu Sea. That (^^^) is the main theater of war for Mister Roosevelt from 1900-1906.
The main danger to the DEI is a rebellion, not foreign intervention, so the Dutch and the Americans waged operations against the Sultanate. Neither side formally admitted their "cooperation", but as outsider powers to the British, French, German, Japanese colonial shenanigans; it makes for interesting Southwest Pacific history. If things had gotten hotter with more German or French meddling, the British, Dutch and Americans might have cooperated formally to kill all the "pirates", and I mean the "European" variety.
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Driftless
Donor
There's a timeline in your wheelhouse! Or, in your "Another Splendid Mess" TL develop the conditions of either Spain or the US raid the others coast, even in reduced form?
McPherson
Banned
There is some actual history involved. It can get very spaghettified, what with Dutch reluctance to stir up the Sultanate, Germans prowling around, the local European and Moro slave traders and Ottoman treachery added to spice things up.
The Spanish ran a North Atlantic guerre de course during the Spanish American War that was little noticed. The First Cruiser Squadron (Cervera's force as denoted by the Americans.) was supposed to base out of Havana and raid American operations in the Caribbean Sea. On paper, the Armada was perfectly capable of this action, if Cervera could have reached Havana. The trouble is that the USN was staffed and crewed by some excellent personnel, even if their ships were RTL pieces of crap. The Spaniards, IF they had kept their training and maintenance up, would have been a near match for Schley. They (IMTs) had technologically superior guns, torpedoes and power plants to the Indianas and their armor was "adequate" to the threat the USN posed. Nitro-cellulose powder and Brotherhood engined Whitehead torpedoes, and the Palmers Shipbuilding and Iron Company of Jarrow, England planform was well engined with Yarrow VTE steam engines. On paper, an Infant Maria Teresia was a full generation ahead of the marine boilered, brown-powder gunned, torpedo-less American's Indianas and Iowa.
The main difference is the Americans put in the training and the work and fixed their issues. The Spaniards did not. American guns did not jam or explode shells in the breech, the American ships had their bottoms cleaned and the Americans stocked war-shot ammunition and practiced with it. The Spaniards went the Qing China route and it killed them.
Driftless
Donor
While looking up information on a different thread yesterday, I came across this Drachinfels video: "The Spanish Navy in 1898 - Armada Options". I thought it outlined both the weaknesses and strengths of the Spanish Navy in that 1890's timeframe pretty well. There was info there I had not seen or heard before. I don't know that there's a plausible way for the Spanish to offset their economic difficulties enough to remain a top-flight colonial power at that late date, but as you note, they had some potential.
Well, in case that you would be able to read in Spanish, then this Alt Hist novel:The Challenge of the Eagles: Alternative History of the Spanish-American War (per its translated title) could be interesting. But, if not, and still interested enough to use the automatic translation, then perhaps, this TL posted in another Forum could help you to explore it from the Spanish perspective.