Politics, Technology, Logistics, Terrain, Weather, , competencies...
Berlin is turned into a smoking ruin July 4, 1946. How is that for analysis? This scenario (^^^) is as ASB as that outcome, I suggested, would be.
Politics
Point the first. Stalin.
Point the second. Churchill.
Point the third. FDR and after him Truman.
Point the fourth. Leader Principle dies when the Berlin Maniac does, because no-one else can hold that gangster regime together. Not those other clowns.
Those guys are not going to ever stop until the Berlin Maniac is D.E.A.D. and his criminal gang are in the graveyard of history with him.
Point the fifth. Technology. German tech was CRAP compared to Allied 1944 onward.
Point the sixth. Logistics. Germany is broke with no more resources, manpower, money and material means to hand to sustain a defense after Overlord and especially Bagration.
Point the Seventh. NUTCRACKER. (Terrain) Germany is small and surrounded. Either Mackinder or Mahan, take your pick, Germany is screwed.
Point the Eighth. The winters on good old planet Earth from 1943 to 1947 are unusually BITTER to add to the war, which means a lot of inevitable agricultural disasters are being masked by all the mass murdering going on, but it is there and Germany is out of food whether she fights or not. (China, too, but I digress.)
Point the ninth. We have a thread somewhere about all the military incompetents each nation had in WWII. It should be pinned as a discussion topic, because it covers just how awful some of those guys were. You should read what "I" have to write about some of the Germans selected in the scenario above as "competent". Not too flattering. Milch, for example, was a complete moron.
Point the tenth. Good ATL is based on RTL and not wish fulfillment and fantasyland. What I read was fantasyland, not even remotely plausible. Things happen for a reason. You can tweak the margins and produce butterflies, but the same real problems (Points 1-9) are not going to disappear. These have to be taken into account.
Example:
...Those Marvelous Tin Fish: The Great Torpedo Scandal Avoided. Current contributor.
I can barely get away with NiCad torpedoes, the Alice Springs to Darwin railroad and Mackerel snort boats, but MacArthur is still MacArthur, Turner is still Turner, and sh_t still happens that hobbles the Americans in the Pacific because the RTL non-ignorable factors like weather, technology, logistics, inherent (American) bad decision making and naval geography dictate what I can do.