John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Interesting note -- casual history fans are probably familiar with the popularity of Aurelian these days, and of the AH question of "What if he had lived longer?". And as I look here, yes that question does get asked here -- @FLAYvian1310 started what looked to be a promising TL on that very question a few years back -- but it not to the extent I would have thought.
Which actually makes sense when I looked in to it -- because it turns out that there's a lot about the life and reign of Aurelian that the historical record is, at best, fairly hazy about. Haziness about the kind of details that would either force a TL writer to make judgement call after judgement call -- or, alternatively, just go crazy -- about things like "How old was Aurelian's daughter?"; or worse, trying to find candidates for son-in-law and successor, only to be find there's a complete dearth of even the most basic information on them (as in the case of Marcellinus), unless said candidate is Probus (and that's only because he became emperor OTL); or literally anything at all on his wife other than her name and her face on a coin ("When did they marry? How long did she outlive him by? Did she actually govern the empire while the Senate was looking for the new emperor?"). I can see why a number of conversations on the idea get started, only to dry up when people actually try to come up with something of substance.
So I doubt that if I started yet another discussion thread that I'd be able to get much more out of it; and in that spirit. I'm just going to post here a broad outline of the scenario I was able to come up with.
Anyway, thanks.
Which actually makes sense when I looked in to it -- because it turns out that there's a lot about the life and reign of Aurelian that the historical record is, at best, fairly hazy about. Haziness about the kind of details that would either force a TL writer to make judgement call after judgement call -- or, alternatively, just go crazy -- about things like "How old was Aurelian's daughter?"; or worse, trying to find candidates for son-in-law and successor, only to be find there's a complete dearth of even the most basic information on them (as in the case of Marcellinus), unless said candidate is Probus (and that's only because he became emperor OTL); or literally anything at all on his wife other than her name and her face on a coin ("When did they marry? How long did she outlive him by? Did she actually govern the empire while the Senate was looking for the new emperor?"). I can see why a number of conversations on the idea get started, only to dry up when people actually try to come up with something of substance.
So I doubt that if I started yet another discussion thread that I'd be able to get much more out of it; and in that spirit. I'm just going to post here a broad outline of the scenario I was able to come up with.
- Aurelian -- is elevated emperor in 270 and reunifies the empire by the spring of 274; PoD is that Mucapor and/or the guards doing the deed decide not to just go for the instant kill, but confront him about it (at sword-point) with words. Eros is exposed, and the Emperor and his army continue on to Mesopotamia, where they grab some territory and help install a friendly shah. Aurelian lives just a few more years after this, no later than the early 280's; in this extra time, he marries his daughter to a trusted lieutenant (probably Marcellinus or Probus, but let's assume the former for now), who he names heir; sees grandson.
- Marcellinus -- comes to sole power in the early 280's. His reign is mostly making sure the reforms initially passed by Aurelian actually stick; the Sassanids are still too nervous to try anything (for now) and the barbarians in the north have been quiet ever since Aurelian pushed out the Juthungi (in 271). The emperor uses this time to reform and rebuild the economy and institutions of the empire. He dies in the early 290's (in his late 50's or early 60's), when his son is still only around 13 or so.
- Lucius -- is obviously too young to effectively rule when he inherits the title of emperor, so actual governing is done by his mother -- the daughter of Aurelian, remember -- who manages to steer the government until a point when her son is in his early twenties (circa 300 or so), and decides he can rule the empire on his own. Unfortunately, in that interim period, Rome's enemies decide now that a young teenager is on the throne, now would be a good time to take advantage -- the Sassanids launch an invasion in the 290's, and German tribes on the other side of the Rhine and/or Danube decide this period of strain is a good chance to get some concessions of their own from the Romans. A number of military commanders and governors step up to meet the challenge -- including one who we'll get to in a moment. In any event once the boy emperor feels comfortable trying to rule on his own, he inaugurates a period of a few years where his reputation as one of the "less good" emperors is secured, being similar to the late reigns of Nero (62-68) and Commodus (190-92) in that there's a lot of megalomania and nose thumbing at institutions that ends up laying the groundwork for rebellions and plots on his life. He's finally killed sometime circa 305, as one of those governors who stepped up earlier in his reign steps in to take the charge.
- Constantius Chlorus -- if your surprised to see his name, you probably shouldn't be; after all, this guy OTL was getting himself decorated back when Aurelian was emperor, so there's every reason to think he'll still be working his way up the ranks TTL as well; in OTL 282 or 283, he got himself appointed to a governor position, so I don't see why he won't manage that much in the 280's TTL as well. From there, well I've already mentioned that he'd have opportunities to make legions more loyal to him than the boy emperor. But being older has its downsides too, and even if he lives a few more years than OTL, he still dies in the early 310's. Fortunately, as of the PoD, he's already had a son, born 272, who (genetically anyway) is the same person as someone OTL knows all too well.
- Constantine -- Even if he dies a few years earlier than OTL, he lives to 334, giving him one of the longer reigns in Roman Imperial history, and prolonging the period of Roman, more or less, unity to about 60 years (274 to 334). He is naturally a devotee of Sol Invictus (as the OTL Constantine was, before converting to Christianity). He may try ruling the empire by himself, or he might try splitting the responsibility with another while firmly holding the senior position (a la Diocletian or Valentinian); in either case, he'll be spending a fair bit of effort to help the Roman World recover from the strains of the reign of Lucius and the rebellion of his father. But he cannot make it last -- if he rules alone, he is compelled to split the realm between his sons (as he did OTL); if he rules with a partner, than his death brings chaos to the balance of power in the Empire (as the retirement and death of Valentinian did OTL).
- In either case, the Era of Restoration (274 to 334) dies with him. It will be centuries before the Western World has any hope of knowing the unity it enjoyed under Constantine; it will be centuries more before it has any hope of knowing the prosperity it knew under Antonius Pius. In no small part because of this, the legacy of Aurelian and his dynasty will forever be regarded as being of near mythic importance to Western Civilization.
Anyway, thanks.
