If McCain crosses over, I have serious doubts that he would try and run for the White House only three years after becoming a Democrat.
Rather, I see him as a Joe Lieberman supporter and then probably a Wes Clark supporter. And of course, he'll finally settle for John Kerry, who will likely have him on a shortlist somewhere or another. McCain probably maintains his relatively conservative voting record but wins the Democratic primary for Senate in 2004 at any rate (there's not really a netroots at this point to go after him ala Lieberman in 2006).
Beyond that, and Kerry-Gephardt's [1] loss to Bush-Cheney in 2004, I don't see McCain deviating much beyond the center-right. He probably joins up with the DLC, adopts a moderately more pro-labor voting record (about as 'pro-labor' as say, Blanche Lincoln
) and generally stays on the right of the Democratic caucus. Assuming that Lieberman loses his primary in 2006, McCain will be out to campaign for his independent candidacy and encourage him to stay within the Democratic caucus after his general election win.
McCain announces that he'll run for the White House as a Democrat in 2008 and gets about as much support from the Democratic primary electorate as did Lieberman in 2004. Nada. Probably drops out after a poor showing in Iowa, endorses Hillary Clinton, who goes on to win the nomination over the more progressive John Edwards [2] and various other also-rans. The Republican nomination goes to Fred Thompson, who loses by virtue of being boring.
In the run-up to his 2010 re-election bid, a more organized netroots starts going after McCain for his conservative voting record. Drafting the more progressive Rodney Glassman to challenge McCain on labor and other economic issues, McCain, like fellow Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter from OTL, moves to the left and starts voting left-of-center. Unfortunately it wasn't enough for the old codger, who lost his primary and thus his chance at another term in office to Glassman. Glassman, of course, would lose the general election by the barest of margins to Congressman Jeff Flake.
[1] Butterflies!
[2] Barack Obama doesn't win the Illinois Senate race ITTL because his opponent is not Alan Keyes. It's Jack Ryan.
Rather, I see him as a Joe Lieberman supporter and then probably a Wes Clark supporter. And of course, he'll finally settle for John Kerry, who will likely have him on a shortlist somewhere or another. McCain probably maintains his relatively conservative voting record but wins the Democratic primary for Senate in 2004 at any rate (there's not really a netroots at this point to go after him ala Lieberman in 2006).
Beyond that, and Kerry-Gephardt's [1] loss to Bush-Cheney in 2004, I don't see McCain deviating much beyond the center-right. He probably joins up with the DLC, adopts a moderately more pro-labor voting record (about as 'pro-labor' as say, Blanche Lincoln
McCain announces that he'll run for the White House as a Democrat in 2008 and gets about as much support from the Democratic primary electorate as did Lieberman in 2004. Nada. Probably drops out after a poor showing in Iowa, endorses Hillary Clinton, who goes on to win the nomination over the more progressive John Edwards [2] and various other also-rans. The Republican nomination goes to Fred Thompson, who loses by virtue of being boring.
In the run-up to his 2010 re-election bid, a more organized netroots starts going after McCain for his conservative voting record. Drafting the more progressive Rodney Glassman to challenge McCain on labor and other economic issues, McCain, like fellow Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter from OTL, moves to the left and starts voting left-of-center. Unfortunately it wasn't enough for the old codger, who lost his primary and thus his chance at another term in office to Glassman. Glassman, of course, would lose the general election by the barest of margins to Congressman Jeff Flake.
[1] Butterflies!
[2] Barack Obama doesn't win the Illinois Senate race ITTL because his opponent is not Alan Keyes. It's Jack Ryan.