Good update.
Waiting for more (especially the 2.0 version of this story)...
Haha, that was just what I was thinking. Having a strong France for now will be better since:
1.- If Spain is weak (invaed again...) then the Caribbean will be let all by itself. An opportunity for a Colombia "liberation" of Cuba, Dominican and Puerto Rico!
2.-I need a counterpart for Britain. Germany is not avaliable and the US is not a Great Power yet. Why do I need an enemy for the UK? For some rather obscure reason that will be revealed once we get to the 1940's.
If Spain is invaded, The British aren't going to let Colombia just take the Spanish Caribbean, they would set up a protectorate to return it to Spain eventually (Spain would be widely seen as occupied, so britian could "protect" Spain's colonies for a time, make some money off of them, and get goodwill when France finally collapses. Win-win for the English). If Colombia managed to take it over there would be massive problems, It would probably be ganged up upon to keep it from conquering EVERYTHING (You don't just accept a newly independent colony taking over the most profitable region on earth!), and the locals are loyalist towards Spain.
Due to britian being an island that is just about impossible to invade, the type of enemy you need is important to what you are doing. If you go my second route, then France is the guaranteed option, simply put: the British will be the main cause of France's downfall, and the cultural affect of "ruling the world for a good while" will make France's population see britian as the perpetual enemy. Even otl, the only reason Franco-British rivalry stopped was because of a rising Germany threatening both.
Well, I didn't mean an invassion right after Spain is invaded. But thank you! You gave me a lot of ideas about Britain's behaviour. However, I think that if the Caribbean is let by itself again, then the possibility of them getting fed up with the Spanish Rule will grow. Also, the Colombian may make plans for a Liberation, but once Britain takes the Caribbean in their control they will back off. But the desire to get there will remain.
Ah, Germany. Always creating Great Alliances... against itself. A continental France able to control Europe but not the British since they're an island is the better option for now. Once Germany rises, the rivalty will stop just as in OTL.
If I'm not wrong, the UK will try to limit France's power at all coast, and that includes the new countries, right?
Yes, essentially.
Britain was pretty much destined to be a huge deciding card in EVERYTHING once it got its act together. Being a large island with plenty of natural resources is already powerful enough, but the fact that they are just about impossible to invade or force to concede by might gives them a free hand in everything. And the British sure took full advantage of that otl! (Its "downfall" on the other hand was caused by essentially going too soft and relying on food imports and outdated tech)
No matter what France does to the continent, britian quite simply cannot be moved whatsoever, even if they have all the troops in the world the only thing the french can realistically do is raid it, and Britain's own raids will be far harsher then the french navy's capacity. Britain has the ability to raid so harshly without a time limit that the effect on trade and commence and whatnot on the continent will probably eventually cause the french state to collapse, helped along by the massive internal problems that France will have controlling an loyal and pissed off continent.
Being "let go" is pretty complex as a term. In the otl Napoleonic wars, the Spanish mainland colonies were essentially "let go", while the Caribbean colonies were still kept under the control of the "Spanish" Crown (the puppet crown of Napoleon!) Brazil also was "Let go" in this sense, the Portuguese royal family had to flee to there!
I think you can turn off the screw for plata at this point. In fact, I think it actually deserves a treat after the beating, so Uruguay could be returned to it once the Brazilian independence war starts in exchange for support of a particular faction (You already broke its chance of beating Colombia permanently, so why not let it get a little compensation).
A powerful Germany is one thing, but that will only threaten France. The only way to threaten britian is to try to kick it out of its spot, so Britain will not see any form of Germany as a real threat unless somebody like Kaiser Wilhelm does what Kaiser Wilhelm did otl.
The UK and France will be rivals for now then. France will fall sooner of after once the British get serious and use the Royal Navy in all it's might. But I can still use that for my master plan (perhaps master is too much...).
One of the principal reasons for Independence was that the Spanish decided to let go the continental colonies. They got fed up and decided that they wanted to be free. The Caribbean will likely remain Spanish until at least the time of Otl American-Spanish War.
Yeah, I won't screw La Plata... for now. I just want them to be out of the immigration bussiness, since most Europeans would prefer it over Gran Colombia. I would like to have an independent Uruguay for a future reason, but I think I could balkanise Brazil instead (Rio Grande do Sul is an option). Since getting La Plata out of bussiness might be hard without a civil war, this will be in the 2.0 version. It's a shame, though, because I wanted them to be a competence for Colombia, but I think I have just another possible rival. Provincia Cisplatina will be Argentinean as a compensation. By the way, I would like to hear your opinion about the attack to Portugal. Leaders, and especially dictators, are prone to very stupid deccisions (Barbarrosa and the Falklands War come to my mind right now), so I don't think it is particulary asb.
As for Germany, they will draw Britain's attention, that's for sure![]()
Normally, I'd think it would be asb for plata to collapse like it did.
However, the way it tried its luck in Brazil is pretty much the exact same thing when otl Argentina tried for the Falklands in the '80s. An uncaring military junta does allow for some bypass of the asb limit. So I'd say its plausible for now.
I'll take a guess, and say that you want a small state near otl Uruguay to act as a semi-replacement for British Guyana (Power projection into south america was the only reason for Guyana in the first place, and with a friendly regime of Colombia close by somewhere south is a better base I think), so the British are going to sell the west bank to Colombia, the east bank to the dutch (Once they are free of course), and establish a puppet hold in this new southern state?
Speaking of that, I also think the British would take and keep all french Caribbean possessions (except Haiti, that thing is an anomaly which normal rules don't apply, I need to think hard about this one), and give/sell french Guyana to the dutch as some extra consolation? (The dutch are likely to be very hard hit by both the french occupation and the RN, Belgium or at least Flanders is likely to be under their rule permanently afterwards)
The time it could take for the french regime to fall will vary widely, mostly depending on the loyalty of the conquered Germans and others, the efficiency of the french government, the ability to protect some commerce from the RN, and how much commitment the RN is putting in to destabilize the french regime.
So it could be roughly about 25 years at the minimum, and roughly 100 years at the maximum.