Hi!
I apologize if this is done before, but here goes. What would have happened had the Thera eruption been a little less violent -- enough to let the Minoan civilization survive intact? Most cities on Santorini presumably are still vaporized, but in this scenario Crete and some of the other islands fare a little better (smaller tsunami, for instance). Have the Cretans build their capital on the other side of the island and they might have a chance.
How would their culture have affected the Mediterranean later on?
The POD could also be (1) a weaker eruption, (2) Thera blows its top ca. 10,000 BC before civilization gets started, (3) Thera decides to pull a Mauna Kea and oozes out lava slowly but constantly for thousands of years to relieve pressure, etc.
Thanks in advance,
ACG
Acctually the Minoan civilization did survive Thera (happened between 1630 and 1600BCE), even though it did destroy almost every building at Crete, but the Minoans rebuilt (Neo Palatial Era), during the age of 1430-1300 BCE Myceneans gradually took over Crete, moving in to the Minoan Palaces, while the Minoan Palace Culture declined during the period 1300-1200 BCE.
That is correct. Dates taken from Thera ash found in ice in Greenland indicate an eruption date around 1625 BC. The generally accepted date for the end of the Minoan Civilization is around 1400 BC, when the Mycenaean Greeks conquered the island and established themselves as rulers in the Cretan palaces. Linear A (the Minoan script) is replaced by Linear B (the Mycenaean script) at this time. So to prevent the fall of the Minoan civilization, you have to somehow prevent the Mycenaean invasion, not necessarily the eruption at Thera.
However, it could be argued that without the Thera Eruption, the Mycenaean invasion might not have taken place. The Minoans did not fortify their cities, because they depended on their naval power to keep potential invaders at bay. The tsunamis and other fallout from the eruption would have wrecked Minoan shipping and destroyed Minoan seaports and dockyards, as well as doing damage to forests on Crete, reducing the wood available for rebuilding the Minoan fleet.
Although the Minoans did rebuild after Thera, they never regained the level of civilization they had attained prior to the eruption, indicating a weakened economy and societal structure. This was, very likely, also reflected in a much weaker navy as well. And this, very likely, is what allowed the Mycenaeans to invade successfully.
So, take away the eruption, the Minoan navy survives intact, the Mycenaeans never manage to successfully carry off an invasion, and Minoan civilization survives at least until the Great Calamity of c. 1200 BC, when all the major Bronze Age civilizations seem to have experienced a collapse due to a combination of climatic changes and the resulting population migrations (the Sea Peoples were part of this).
Could the Minoans have survived the Great Calamity? Possibly. However, the Minoans depended on trade for their livelihood. Most of the major trade partners of the Minoans collapsed during the Great Calamity, and replacements would not arise for some time. Without that trade, the Minoan economy was going to be in big trouble, and without a strong economy, they could not continue to keep a strong navy, thus opening themselves to invasion eventually. So the Dorians will probably still be able to take over the island on schedule by about 1100 BC.
What might be interesting to postulate is that the Minoans establish some colonies on Sicily and Southern Italy prior to the Great Calamity. Even if the Minoans on Crete are eventually conquered by the Dorians, those in Sicily and Italy might continue the civilization for centuries afterward.