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Let's say Al Walid falls off a horse and breaks his neck early on, while the wars against the admittedly exausted Romans and Persians are plagued with similar luck (or go even further and say that Muhammed does not manage to unify Arabia beyond the Hejaz). With the military expansion of Islamic rule off the table, how far does said religion spread?

(for that matter, how many military setbacks would keep them out of Mesopotamia and the Levant all things considered)

I suspect a lot farther than many would think. The Arabs had long been involved in the trade networks of the Indian Ocean, and OTL _did_ establish a strong following via missionary traders from Central Asia to the Indies. At the very least they would be akin to Jews with scattered settlements and strong ties to traditon (only perhaps with a more centralized network of theology), at most... well, look at Indonesia....

HTG
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