Minimal PoD? Ford Winning 1976

What is the latest and/or smallest PoD whereby the 1976 electoral map is the same as OTL except that Ford wins Ohio and Hawaii, the former by less than 1,000 votes? (Preferably -- and in all likelihood -- Carter would still win the popular vote.)

Reminder -- I'm only looking for the campaign PoD here; there are more than plenty of threads on what comes after.
 
Dole doesn't assert that military unpreparedness on the part of Democratic presidents was responsible for all of the wars the U.S. had fought in the 20th century or point out that the number of U.S. casualties in "Democrat wars" was roughly equal to the population of Detroit. Dole really came across as cold & dispassionate in that debate.
 
Dole doesn't assert that military unpreparedness on the part of Democratic presidents was responsible for all of the wars the U.S. had fought in the 20th century or point out that the number of U.S. casualties in "Democrat wars" was roughly equal to the population of Detroit. Dole really came across as cold & dispassionate in that debate.

Or -- maybe he makes the gaffe, but the campaign staff decide to get him out of the cycle by sending him to... Hawaii. Takes care of half the OP anyway...
 
Hawaii is not likely to have broken for Ford IIRC. Unless maybe Hiram Fong gets onto the ticket...
 
No debate gaffes by Ford and Bob Dole.

It was probably that simple.

Also, I think Ford lucked out by not having to face Morris Udall instead of Carter.
 
Agreed. Or, really, just have someone sneeze or something. It was a close election.

I like the idea of a sneeze switching the election. Fleshing it out: Just as Ford is about to mention "Soviet domination," he sneezes. The extra moment before he gives that part of his answer gives him just enough time to realize how poor that response will sound, and he couches it differently, maybe something like "the Ford administration will not permit Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." Similar in tone, but avoids the blatant "What the hell did he just say" reaction from the crowd.

Now, I'll readily admit I'm no expert on Ford or his administration, but something this small could readily flip those results.
 
OK, here's what I'm thinking --

October 6 -- Ford does not make the gaffe about "Soviet Domination"
October 15 -- Bob Dole does still make the gaffe about "Democrat Wars"
October 16 -- The Ford Campaign (not having had to deal w fallout over a Ford debate gaffe) decides to get Bob Dole out the press headlines, and send him to campaign in Hawaii

Thanks to Bob Doles's visit, the Hawaii Republicans manage to get an extra 9,000 people to the polls come election day. Many states see a smaller bump in Republican turnout, an extra 0.1% of the population showing up to the polls. But only in one state does this make a difference -- Ohio, where an extra 12,000 Republican votes puts Ford less than 900 votes ahead of Carter in that state -- this, despite that Carter still leads Ford by 1.5 million in the Popular Vote.
 
Dave Leip said:
Scenario - a change of 23,182 votes (0.03% of national total) from Carter to Ford in two states results in a victory for Ford. Ohio - 5,559 votes (0.14%); Wisconsin - 17,623 votes (0.84%).

That's all you need.
 
Top